another hand

[Boss Plunkett]

LHE 100 players down to final 4 tables..blinds ar T300/T600. UTG, about T4200, (have played with in ring games decent but not aggressive) calls (note I hate early position calls in tournaments..they throw me off)next folds I have A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif J /forums/images/icons/spade.gif I, with T3600, raise all fold to UTG he calls. flop comes A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif UTG checks I bet..he calls..now he can't have AK,AA or KK or else he would have bet. possibly medium pair but a call here seems unlikely. KQ, JT flush draw?? I am baffled..turns brings 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif UTG checks...I check.
River brings Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif ..utg bets..I call. Here are my questions.
1. was my preflop raise correct? I think so it was a fairly weak table many folding to power.
2. should I have kept betting on the turn?
3.when he bets one the river what do I put him on and should I call. (prior to river I have 1800)
thanks for all the input. I will post results.
Cap

[cferejohn]

I think your pre-flop raise was easily correct. The only time I wouldn't say so is if this player never pre-flop limped once the blinds got big, in which case he might be limping with AA or KK. Since you descripe him as 'decent, but not aggressive', it seems more likely that he is trying to see a cheap flop with a low-to-middle pocket pair, a suited ace, or something like QJs.

I think you should bet out on the turn and expect that he will probably fold. If he raises, you are probably up against a set, a flush, or 2 pair, and you probably need to fold (again assuming you are confident in your read of the player as "not aggressive", meaning he wouldn't raise on a bluff or with just ace+bad kicker).

The river bet makes it look like one of the three:

1. He was going for a check-raise on the turn. In this case, you are certainly beaten by at least 2 pair.

2. He took your check on the turn as a sign of weakness (thinking that you had something like TT or JJ) and thinks his ace bad kicker is good.

3. The Q helped him, and he has something like QJs, QTs, or maybe even KQo (although why one would limp this UTG is beyond me).

In situations 2 and 3, your hand is good. I think you have to call.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I think your flop decision is marginal, but certainly could be correct. Most often, when the stacks are that low, I wait for a hand where I clearly have the best cards, or I can be the first one in with a raise and a chance of winning the blinds uncontested. Against a limper and with a hand that can often be a dog to the limper's cards, I would usually fold. However, if you expect him to fold now or on the flop pretty often, then your raise is a good option.

After that, I think you played it perfectly. If you were dominated by a set of As or some such, you lost the minimum without letting yourself get bluffed out. If you were ahead, you only lost one small bet of profit. And, once the diamond hit the turn, you were either well ahead or way behind. He might have had one pair and one diamond, in which case you gave him a free shot at 14 outs, but that is definitely the worst case scenario for your decision, and the best case scenarios gain you much more than you lose in this instance.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[maplepig]

Unless UTG has a good chance of holding Ax(not decent player), raising preflop is unlikely a good idea. If you flat call, you can bet the turn, call if check raised for the nut flush draw. Fold to river bet if fourth flush doesn't come, or check the river. Since you have raised preflop, you have to check the turn. There aren't many hands that UTG can call your flop bet without having you beaten, assuming that UTG is a decent player. AJ is a very good hand against loose morons who play Ax or any pair like premium hands, but is a weak holding against decent players. Even KQ is a better raising hand here, I will often raise KQ from button, pretending a big Ace, but with AJ, you will likely to gain a little, lose a bunch. It is at best a calling hand.

[Joe Tall]

I totally scrapped after a re-read of your post, I missed the check-check on the turn.

Now, I think he was going for the check-raise and missed his bet. I think he took it down with the flush.

[cferejohn]

Interesting, insofar as it is pretty much completely opposed to what I said. When in doubt, I would definitely defer to Greg's advice.

My only no limit experience is online tournaments. In my experience, people often limp with Ax and often take an inordinate amount of pressure with it. Here is my thinking:

1. When UTG doesn't reraise pre-flop, he probably does not have KK or AA. Most players I have seen don't limp with AK. In my experience a limp followed by a call of a substantial bet very often means medium pocket pair, and otherwise it means A8-AJ.

2. The reason I bet out on the turn is to avoid having to call a river bet with no idea where I am. If I bet the turn and am raised, I can feel good about laying it down. If he folds, that is obviously good, and if he just calls, I will probably not have to put in any more money. If I check the turn, I would expect a big bet on the river. Maybe my problem is that I feel that there is a 60-70% chance that I am ahead here, so I would be very prone to call that bet. In general in no limit, I am nearly fanatic about making my opponents call large bets, rather than calling them myself.

I'm intersted in what anyone, and specifically Greg, has to say about my thinking.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

The general concept of betting instead of calling is a good one. However, at some times, it is clear that any bet you make will fold almost all weaker hands, and NOT fold almost all of the stronger hands. As such, it can't be a good bet to make. Yet, when you check instead of making that bet, you have to know that you are often going to induce a bluff, and therefore must be prepared to call.

As you suggest, there are times when it is better to make a "test" bet, and if it is called, you can assume you are beat and fold if they bet the next round. This play does a lot to improve your variance, but kills your EV. I am seldom concerned with reducing variance unless the play is also beneficial to EV, or at least only reduces it by a small amount.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[cferejohn]

I guess what I fear is the person making a bet so large that it will cripple (or eliminate) me if I call it and lose. In this situation, with a hand I am not sure of, I may be forced to lay it down. If a scare card comes on the river, it will be particularly hard to call what may be a bluff.

That said, I can see that this strategy, while it may occasionally cost you a pot vs. an aggressive opponent, it saves you money when you are beat, and may win you a bit more (if he makes a bluff that is small enough that you can call) when you are ahead.

[DaNoob]

"I guess what I fear is the person making a bet so large that it will cripple (or eliminate) me if I call it and lose. In this situation, with a hand I am not sure of, I may be forced to lay it down. If a scare card comes on the river, it will be particularly hard to call what may be a bluff."

I have this same problem quite often in NL tournies, mostly due to the fact that I don't play aggressively enough. But, in our Hero's case, he doesn't need to worry about a bet being too large, as this is Limit HE.

[cferejohn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
our Hero's case, he doesn't need to worry about a bet being too large, as this is Limit HE

[/ QUOTE ]

It is? &lt;Looks at first post&gt;

Oops. Well, I'll be damned. I'm as smart as I am handsome.

Well, in that case, I think he played it just fine. I like the pre-flop raise unless you had reason to suspect he was limping with AA or KK (i.e. he'd done so before, or he hadn't limped at all since the second level of limits).

The flop bet is obvious. Checking behind on the turn is OK. You are either way ahead or way behind. And calling on the end is also fine.