Hero's Profit/Loss?

[QTip]

Just a fun concept:

Hand 1:

Board before turn: 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Turn: 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

HU

Hero in BB checks, Villain in MP bets, Hero calls

River: 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero checks, Villain checks

Final Pot: 7BB

Hero: 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Villain: A /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif


Hand 2:

Board before turn: 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Turn: 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

HU

Hero in BB checks, Villain in MP bets, Hero calls

River: 3 : /images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero checks, Villain checks

Final Pot: 7BB

Hero: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Villain A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif

Disregarding how hero got to the turn and disgarding what action could have been on the river and what action was on the river... (So in the following questions, the term "hand" refers to the turn action)

How much did hero make in hand 1?

How much did hero lose in hand 2?

[damaniac]

By my calculations, hero lost 1/5 of a big bet in hand one, ignoring river implied odds (which would almost certainly apply here).

Didn't hero lose a full BB in hand 2, drawing dead? Or are we calculating these vs. hand ranges as opposed to what he actually had.

Maybe I'm not understanding this at all...

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
By my calculations, hero lost 1/5 of a big bet in hand one, ignoring river implied odds (which would almost certainly apply here).

Didn't hero lose a full BB in hand 2, drawing dead? Or are we calculating these vs. hand ranges as opposed to what he actually had.

Maybe I'm not understanding this at all...

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about the lines of what villain actually had. Hero has a FF and gutshot in hand 2.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm not understanding this at all...

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps the way I presented this is confusing. (although the 2 questions were worded to play on our results oriented thinking tendencies....at least for me anyway).

I just started rereading TOP and this paragraph on page 10 got me thinking so I made those examples.

"Anytime you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, anytime you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose thet bet."

I did want to ignore previous action, hand ranges and implied odds to simplify this. But...I really don't think I would have grasped the concept in those examples before reading and thinking about this paragraph last night.

[Harv72b]

I'm not good enough at math to give you the exact figures, but Hero lost money in Hand 1 according to the FTOP, first by calling the turn bet with insufficient pot odds to chase his 5-outer, and then by failing to bet the river when he caught. He gained a fraction of a BB in Hand 2 by correctly calling the turn bet with odds to chase his flush draw (he didn't have the gutshot, btw).

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
How much did hero make in hand 1?

How much did hero lose in hand 2?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 1:
(5/44)*6 - (39/44)*1 = -0.20BB

Hand 2:
(9/44)*6 - (35/44)*1 = +0.43BB


So Hero loses in hand 1 and wins in hand 2.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
(he didn't have the gutshot, btw).


[/ QUOTE ]

lol....I thought I made it so the flush was his only way out, then after I looked again after I posted it, I fooled myself....thanks.

Sometimes I get lost in these concepts, then I get back on track. Basic stuff, but still tricky concepts for someone like me. For example, when I read this passage, my first thought to understand this was "..oh, he earns something even though he didn't win because he's more likely to hit it next time." Then I was like "..no....that's not true either" and remembered trying to understand the 4 egg quiche story that DMBFan (I thnk it was him) posted a long time ago. It just takes me a while to put the pieces together.

Anyway, it is pretty basic stuff, but for me it was looking at EV and luck in a different light.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How much did hero make in hand 1?

How much did hero lose in hand 2?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 1:
(5/44)*6 - (39/44)*1 = -0.20BB

Hand 2:
(9/44)*6 - (35/44)*1 = +0.43BB


So Hero loses in hand 1 and wins in hand 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I was after.

[TheHammer24]

Didn't look at the replies to see if I could get it right. Hand 1: Hero has 5 cards out of 46 that win the hand for him. Thus he saved 36/41 of a BB in Hand 1.

Hand 2 you have a gut shot and FF. 12 out of 46 cards. You lost 22/34 BB
I definitely am missing the concept.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't look at the replies to see if I could get it right. Hand 1: Hero has 5 cards out of 46 that win the hand for him. Thus he saved 36/41 of a BB in Hand 1.

Hand 2 you have a gut shot. 4 outs, out of 46 cards. You lost 37/42 BB
I definitely am missing the concept.

[/ QUOTE ]

After reading the other responses (and no we don't have the gutshot on the turn in hand 2 - I got confused looking at it as well), are you getting the concept?

[TheHammer24]

Realizing the concept. Hand 1 5 cards win 39 lose.

(5/44)*6+(39/44)*-1 = -.20 BB

Hand 2 9 vs 35

(9/44)*6+(35/44)*-1 = .43BB

My previous post was teh EV difference you lost by having the turn bet instead of having it checked through. Does that makes sense?

[Student Caine]

Wow, thanks a lot for this post, this makes sense but I had never thought of winning and losing in quite this way.

I just ordered TOP and I am very excited, was hoping it would be here today, but it looks like I get to wait until Monday. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif