(science) Anyone ever read KurzweilAI stuff? Technology speculation

[Benholio]

Well, I was bored and I Stumbled (http://www.stumbleupon.com) upon this essay called The Law of Accelerating Returns (http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1) by Ray Kurzweil. It is about trends of advancing technology, lots of sci-fi type speculations involving machine intelligence, etc. The essay is a pretty long read, but just skimming it for 10-15 minutes was pretty interesting.

This guy is probably just a nutcase, and it is all a bunch of wild psuedo-science junk, but it makes for an interesting read!

What can computers do today that they couldn't do 40 years ago? They are essentially the same, processing the same types of data, running on the same types of code, just with vastly more computations per second possible.

We've made no advancements in terms of any basic intelligence or capability. A completely different computer architecture would be required, and it remains to be seen that such a thing could even be created. I don't know of any chemical processes or systems that can be developed to the degree of precision and complexity of life, or even if would ever be possible without using organic (carbon based) molecules and a system similar to life.

There will be no Singularity in our lifetime.

[RedManPlus]

Kurzweil is probably one of today's leading "futurist"...
The Club of Rome or Toffler of our time...
And all his speculations will be just as inaccurate.

We need guys like him...
But he makes false assumptions...
And then lets his fantasies go out of control.

For example...
"Human progress" is not exponential at all.

Some things do not advance at all...
Some things are linear...
Some things are faster and non-linear...
But nothing is exponential...
As his chess, rice, Emperor story should illustrate.

Kurzweil's real obsession is immortality via Life Extension technology...
Book called "Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough To Live Forever"...
At Amazon here:
Ray's Book (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1579549543/qid=1126965716/sr=8-1/ref=pd_bbs_1/104-1086440-0347142?v=glance&s=books&n=507846)

It's a very well written book on leading edge Health Supplements and Optimal Lifestyle.

Buy it.

If you put this book into action...
You won't live forever...
But you will add 20 healthy years to your life.

rm+

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Here's a pretty balanced look:
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000359FD-761A-12B9-9A2C83414B7F0000&sc=I100322

Good post.

[ QUOTE ]
If you put this book into action...you will add 20 healthy years to your life.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you mean you'll live to 95 on average, or that you'll live to 75 but be disease free? Either way that's a hell of a claim. Any data to back it up?

From my knowledge and reading, most research on supplements shows no effect on most disease risks, or mortality rates.