A useless & somewhat insane hypothetical

[ilya]

Say it's folded to you on the button and you have JJ. There is no SB in this hand, so it's just you and the BB. You both have XXxbb and you somehow KNOW 3 things:

1, he has 66
2, he will call any amount preflop
3, he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop (depending on pot size) but will always check/call with a set or better.

You also plan to push the flop no matter what.

What's the optimal amount to bet preflop in a tournament?

[45suited]

Am I missing something? Push pre-flop.

[ilya]

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Am I missing something? Push pre-flop.

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You may not be missing anything at all but here's what I'm getting at. Say Villain ALWAYS folds flop unless he flops a set or better. Now what is the optimal amount to raise preflop?

[splashpot]

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Am I missing something? Push pre-flop.

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You may not be missing anything at all but here's what I'm getting at. Say Villain ALWAYS folds flop unless he flops a set or better. Now what is the optimal amount to raise preflop?

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Still push pre-flop. Unless you're in some weird situation like bubble and one guy has a micro stack.

[Jman28]

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Am I missing something? Push pre-flop.

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You may not be missing anything at all but here's what I'm getting at. Say Villain ALWAYS folds flop unless he flops a set or better. Now what is the optimal amount to raise preflop?

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I guess 99% of your stack then. Gives him 2 less cards to hit his set.

If stacks are RIDICULOUSLY deep and you can do this for as long as you want until one of you busts, there may be an argument for limping to see get set over set and then get all the money in as a more significant favorite.

[lacky]

I dont care if we are on the bubble and the micro has one chip, if I know I'm in a 80/20 I'm pushing.

[Double Down]

I don't understand. If you know you have overpair, why would you not want to get it all in pf? Especially since he'll call any amount but after flop might fold. What argument would there be for not pushing?

[tshort]

Assuming the hero is going to blindly push the flop, he should bet all of his chips except one preflop.

[Slim Pickens]

Am I missing something? You bet all you chips except the one on top of your cards. He calls for that many chips with you as an 85/15 favorite seeing the flop. Then when no 6 flops, you drop your last chip in and he folds getting 2342354335:1 odds on his two-outer.

[MegaBet]

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Am I missing something? Push pre-flop.

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You may not be missing anything at all but here's what I'm getting at. Say Villain ALWAYS folds flop unless he flops a set or better. Now what is the optimal amount to raise preflop?

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If villain ALWAYS calls a preflop raise and he will only call a flop bet if he hits a set ot better, it is HUGE HUGE +EV to push preflop. He can only win if he hits trips, in which case you are done anyway.

[raptor517]

see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

[splashpot]

I change my mind. Bet every chip except one. Assuming the condition that he will ALWAYS fold on the flop without a set or better. Then bet that one on the flop when his set doesn't hit so he doesn't get to see the turn or river.

[raptor517]

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I change my mind. Bet every chip except one. Assuming the condition that he will ALWAYS fold on the flop without a set or better. Then bet that one on the flop when his set doesn't hit so he doesn't get to see the turn or river.

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3, he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop (depending on pot size)

follow the rules /images/graemlins/wink.gif

holla

[splashpot]

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I change my mind. Bet every chip except one. Assuming the condition that he will ALWAYS fold on the flop without a set or better. Then bet that one on the flop when his set doesn't hit so he doesn't get to see the turn or river.

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3, he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop (depending on pot size)

follow the rules /images/graemlins/wink.gif

holla

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You may not be missing anything at all but here's what I'm getting at. Say Villain ALWAYS folds flop unless he flops a set or better.

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I did.

[HigherAce]

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1, he has 66 2, he will call any amount preflop

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Perfect conditions for PF push, no?

[ilya]

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see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

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Yeah you're right, although if someone were interested in the problem, they could just go ahead and slap whatever probability they wanted on there and go from there.

i think without that information pushing isn't clearly the best play. it just isn't clear what the best play is.

[raptor517]

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see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you're right, although if someone were interested in the problem, they could just go ahead and slap whatever probability they wanted on there and go from there.

i think without that information pushing isn't clearly the best play. it just isn't clear what the best play is.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok see.. the way i see it ilya, is that you are going to have to be able to bet like 1/12th of the pot or something and make him fold to make shoving the worse play. therefore, unless you come up with some ridiculous numbers, shoving is best. holla

[ilya]

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see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you're right, although if someone were interested in the problem, they could just go ahead and slap whatever probability they wanted on there and go from there.

i think without that information pushing isn't clearly the best play. it just isn't clear what the best play is.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok see.. the way i see it ilya, is that you are going to have to be able to bet like 1/12th of the pot or something and make him fold to make shoving the worse play. therefore, unless you come up with some ridiculous numbers, shoving is best. holla

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it doesn't need to be that absurd. for example if you both have 10xbb, and he always folds flop without a set, you get almost the same EV from raising to 7.5xbb preflop as from pushing (480 vs 500) while reducing your chance of busting by more than 8%. so you're betting 1/6th pot on the flop. if he calls, that's fine. he's still making a mistake on the flop. although since it's a tournament you might actually prefer that he fold.

if you both have 10xbb and you raise 8xbb preflop, you actually make more than you do by pushing preflop (524 vs. 500) if he always folds flop without a set, and of course you average the same as by pushing if he never folds on the flop. Plus of course there's the fact that when he folds flop you bust less often. And his call on the flop w/o a set is only break-even.

So, whether or not betting an amount that gives Villain 9:1 on your flop bet is actually *optimal*, I think it is clearly better than pushing.

Ok say you dont push, and flop comes 632. Are you gonna fold?

[raptor517]

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Ok say you dont push, and flop comes 632. Are you gonna fold?

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obviously, unless u have odds to draw to 2 outs, which you wont if u played the hand 'optimally' with the goofy ilya created betting scheme. holla

[raptor517]

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see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you're right, although if someone were interested in the problem, they could just go ahead and slap whatever probability they wanted on there and go from there.

i think without that information pushing isn't clearly the best play. it just isn't clear what the best play is.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok see.. the way i see it ilya, is that you are going to have to be able to bet like 1/12th of the pot or something and make him fold to make shoving the worse play. therefore, unless you come up with some ridiculous numbers, shoving is best. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

it doesn't need to be that absurd. for example if you both have 10xbb, and he always folds flop without a set, you get almost the same EV from raising to 7.5xbb preflop as from pushing (480 vs 500) while reducing your chance of busting by more than 8%. so you're betting 1/6th pot on the flop. if he calls, that's fine. he's still making a mistake on the flop. although since it's a tournament you might actually prefer that he fold.

if you both have 10xbb and you raise 8xbb preflop, you actually make more than you do by pushing preflop (524 vs. 500) if he always folds flop without a set, and of course you average the same as by pushing if he never folds on the flop. Plus of course there's the fact that when he folds flop you bust less often. And his call on the flop w/o a set is only break-even.

So, whether or not betting an amount that gives Villain 9:1 on your flop bet is actually *optimal*, I think it is clearly better than pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes yes i understand all that. i was just being controversial by making the point that hes not gonna fold for such a small bet.. even though its all hypothetical..

ok so yer numbers arent that ridiculous, and yes, they work out. you are 100% correct. but, in the original problem, it said that hell fold unless he has good odds or whatever. meh, fun problem tho, make it more tricky.. and better explained.. and.. ok ok ill stop, im goofy today. holla

[applejuicekid]

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see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

[/ QUOTE ]





Yeah you're right, although if someone were interested in the problem, they could just go ahead and slap whatever probability they wanted on there and go from there.

i think without that information pushing isn't clearly the best play. it just isn't clear what the best play is.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok see.. the way i see it ilya, is that you are going to have to be able to bet like 1/12th of the pot or something and make him fold to make shoving the worse play. therefore, unless you come up with some ridiculous numbers, shoving is best. holla

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I think this is the key. If he will ALWAYS fold the flop if he doesn't hit his set, raising anything greater than 80% of your stack will be better than pushing with your entire stack minus 1 being optimal. If he will only fold the flop when he doesn't have odds to chase, you will need to raise an amount preflop that will allow you to bet enough so that he doesn't have 12 to 1 on his money.

So I think the optimal amount will be the largest raise possible that will allow you to do this.

If you have a stack of 1000 chips and raise to 846 there will be 1692 in the pot on the flop. You can then bet your remaining 154 which will make the pot 1846 thus giving him 1846 to 154 or just under 12 to 1.

So I'm going to say about .846 is the optimal amount to raise. But I have a feeling raptor may be right, and I did something wrong. Anyways, someone please comment if I did something wrong.

Good post Ilya. I think this is an interesting problem.

[raptor517]

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see you messed up ilya, you said he will SOMETIMES fold to a bet on the flop. that makes it impossible for anyone to decide what the perfect amount is, and if the play would be better than pushing. without that information, pushing is clearly the best play. holla

[/ QUOTE ]





Yeah you're right, although if someone were interested in the problem, they could just go ahead and slap whatever probability they wanted on there and go from there.

i think without that information pushing isn't clearly the best play. it just isn't clear what the best play is.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok see.. the way i see it ilya, is that you are going to have to be able to bet like 1/12th of the pot or something and make him fold to make shoving the worse play. therefore, unless you come up with some ridiculous numbers, shoving is best. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the key. If he will ALWAYS fold the flop if he doesn't hit his set, raising anything greater than 80% of your stack will be better than pushing with your entire stack minus 1 being optimal. If he will only fold the flop when he doesn't have odds to chase, you will need to raise an amount preflop that will allow you to bet enough so that he doesn't have 12 to 1 on his money.

So I think the optimal amount will be the largest raise possible that will allow you to do this.

If you have a stack of 1000 chips and raise to 846 there will be 1692 in the pot on the flop. You can then bet your remaining 154 which will make the pot 1846 thus giving him 1846 to 154 or just under 12 to 1.

So I'm going to say about .846 is the optimal amount to raise. But I have a feeling raptor may be right, and I did something wrong. Anyways, someone please comment if I did something wrong.

Good post Ilya. I think this is an interesting problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh by all means i could be very very wrong, i have no idea, thats just my first thoughts. i spent a good 5 seconds thinking about the situation, and just kinda blurted my thoughts. holla