Why are villains so MEAN!? (AKo hand)

[DavidC]

I'm going to work out my own analysis and post this, to ensure that I made the correct decision here:

---

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (23 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, Hero???

Pot: 17bb

---

The PF cold-caller is 18/11 after 228 hands. On the turn, I'm only afraid of 77 and 66 from him: not much, basically. I'm thinking he's got something closer to jj-88. The table's running pretty hot right now, so that could help his decision towards cold-calling a hand, although with a lag on the table perhaps going to three-bet, it's probably inadvisable for him to do that. If he has the hand range that I put him on, I would like to congradulate him for a great turn raise!

The preflop capper is unknown.

I'm going to be a douche here and say that his cap vs people three-betting him out-of-position range, in a multiway pot, is:

AK, AQs, AA-TT...

AK: 12
AQs: 3
AA: 3
KK: 3
QQ: 6
JJ: 6
TT: 6

My Expected Outs here: 2(12) + 6(3) + 0(3) + 3(3) + 3*6(6) + 0 (2) (just in case that cold-caller really does have quads, which would be really weird):

159 / 38 = ~4.1

/images/graemlins/frown.gif

Arg, not enough odds to call.

Do you guys agree / disagree with this?

(In the actual hand I did call, and I was shown JJ and 99, so it was a good call if I could actually see their cards, but this leads me to believe that I should have folded. /images/graemlins/frown.gif )

Edit: It would have been SO sweet to have AKs clubs here. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Fold. There is still another betting round to lose money on. If we give your overcards a total of 4 outs, you are getting nowhere near the odds. It isn't even a close decision, especially since a call does not close the action.

[SavageMiser]

I'm having a real hard time following your numbers there. Are these taking the other two folks still active into account? Ah, no matter ... you're drawing dead quite a few times and chopping a bunch of others.

I fold this PDQ and sleep like a baby.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm having a real hard time following your numbers there. Are these taking the other two folks still active into account? Ah, no matter ... you're drawing dead quite a few times and chopping a bunch of others.

I fold this PDQ and sleep like a baby.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only guy left to act is the BB who's not taken into consideration for my outs...

Sorry about the clutter with regards to the numbers.

What does PDQ mean?

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. There is still another betting round to lose money on. If we give your overcards a total of 4 outs, you are getting nowhere near the odds. It isn't even a close decision, especially since a call does not close the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm willing to pay quads an additional 2bb on this river without getting upset.

There's a chance that I'll hit my K and lose, or hit my A and lose, to a boat... that would suck.

Getting 8.5:1 I'm pretty close to required odds, but I only think I'll get paid by one guy if an ace hits and I'm good: so, I can't call. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

MP2's Turn raise is fantastic and BB is freakin me out just enough to drop it.

[SavageMiser]

[ QUOTE ]
What does PDQ mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty damn quick.

Durn kids.