Early in $55 w/AK in EP - misery...

Hey guys, can you tell me how I played this one? Be brutal - heh...

Here are my reads: S is a loosey goosey guy who calls lots of bets, especially now that he's chip leader, P had been picking up his aggression level, since he lost a big hand that put him low on chips, and I don't have that great a read on M. I figure I've got S beat, a possible domination or coinflip situation with P, and I guess my thinking was that I'm a coinflip with M. I saw the size of the pot and thought my AK was worth pushing. Tell me what you think... Results are in white at the bottom.

Thanks!

The Funky Monkey

#Game No :
***** Hand History for Game *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny: Level:3 Blinds(25/50)
Table Table (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 6: Hero ( $935 )
Seat 9: S ( $3035 )
Seat 1: M ( $1100 )
Seat 4: ( $1005 )
Seat 7: ( $945 )
Seat 8: ( $1045 )
Seat 2: ( $1405 )
Seat 10: P ( $530 )
Trny:15803741 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ah Kc ]
1 fold.
Hero raises [150].
2 did not respond in time.
2 folds.
3 folds.
S calls [150].
P calls [150].
M raises [875].
4 folds.
Hero is all-In [785]
S folds.
P is all-In [380]
M calls [35].

<font color="white">** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, 8s, Th ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8d ]
M shows [ Ac, Ad ] two pairs, aces and eights.
Hero shows [ Ah, Kc ] a pair of eights.
P shows [ Jc, Js ] two pairs, jacks and eights.
M wins 810 chips from side pot #1 with two pairs, aces and eights.
M wins 1790 chips from the main pot with two pairs, aces and eights.
P finished in eighth place.
Hero finished in seventh place. </font>

[durron597]

read this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=3377672&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1)

[valenzuela]

You played it fine, youre busting lots of times though..but I think the position u are in if u win its worth it.

Thanks for the reply, valenzuela.

Do you mind going over your reasoning in more depth? After messin' with the hand calculator for a while, it seems like the 2.15 to 1 that I'm getting on this hand around a third of the time or the 1.19 to 1 that I'm getting half the time (at best - the guy DID re-raise a bunch of huge bets) just isn't worth the call that I made... What do you think? I did kind of get that sick feeling when I pressed the "All-in" button. Guess I should have paid attention to it.

[durron597]

Because of your hand it is likely that you are not up against AA or KK, and with the massive amount of dead money you don't mind a coinflip; I push here too.

Okay, but here't the problem. Even if I take the best-case scenario here which, in my mind, is that S (chip leader) folds (which he did), P pushes with either an A-something lower than my AK or a pocket pair lower than KK or AA, and M has at least JJ (I can't see him pushing into all that heavy action with less), I'm still not getting the right odds to make this call.

Let's say that M has JJ or QQ, since I assumed away AA or KK when I called, obviously. If P has a smallish pocket pair, then I'm still around 45/35 against M for all of my chips, regardless of what happens to P. If I've got P's smaller Ace dominated, things are even worse for me against M, given my assumption surrounding his holding.

I dunno. I feel like this was one of those hands that I just couldn't let go of when I should have. Do you guys see any flaws in my calculations?

Thanks for the feedback...

-BM

This is AA or KK more often than you might think. I like folding here, if it was level 1 there is more chance you are ahead but even then folding is probably correct.

I used to autocall here but not anymore.

[ QUOTE ]
Because of your hand it is likely that you are not up against AA or KK

[/ QUOTE ]

Your hand might suggest that you are not up against AA or KK but the betting suggests otherwise, ignore that at your peril.


[ QUOTE ]
and with the massive amount of dead money you don't mind a coinflip; I push here too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes there is some dead money but calling it "massive" is a bit of a stretch.

[MegaBet]

If you think you are up against Ax and JJ then you absolutely HAVE to make this call. The slight disadvantage in hand odds of AK v JJ is more than made up for by the pot odds with the Ax guy in the hand.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you guys see any flaws in my calculations?

[/ QUOTE ]

you forgot the times that get heads up with AQ, or 3-way with AQ and Ax for the short guy.

i would play the hand the same, if you include a deep breath and saying "let's get lucky" before calling.

[bigt439]

I think this is a beauty spot to limp reraise all in.