$109: Is this a Bluff?!?

[MSUcougar]

NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:15802265 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Friday, September 16, 22:32:24 EDT 2005
Table Table 11709 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 4: HERO ( $1080 )
Seat 10: ( $910 )
Seat 9: ( $885 )
Seat 3: VILLAIN ( $2035 )
Seat 5: ( $1360 )
Seat 1: ( $1215 )
Seat 6: ( $640 )
Seat 2: ( $620 )
Seat 8: ( $1255 )
Trny:15802265 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qs Jc ]
folds.
folds.
folds.
folds.
folds.
calls [50].
calls [50].
VILLAIN calls [25].
HERO checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, 8s, 4s ] (POT 200)
VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets [85].
folds.
folds.
VILLAIN calls [85].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6h ] (POT 370)
VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets [200].
VILLAIN calls [200].
** Dealing River ** [ Kd ] (POT 770)
VILLAIN bets [700].
HERO ????


No prior reads, but villain took a LONG time thinking before making the river bet. My stack on the river was 745.

Call or fold?

[Maulik]

it seems like he's using his stacksize in relation to the pot to push you off a hand with the river scare card. with high reliability I'd assume its a bluff.

this looks like a bluff to me, but why didnt you bet at least 3/4 the pot on the flop?

that flop bet looks like its begging to get pushed off a hand, IMO.

[Hendricks433]

Porbally. I probally woulda made some sort of blocking bet on the river. But I dont plat $109's so my opinion might be irrelevant.

[viennagreen]

i play the 109s and if i made this bet, 80% of the time it wouldn't be a bluff.

i make a lot of overbets and big river bets with good hands, and have a lot of success with it.

plus-- the "long time thinking" is a non factor if you are playing against a multi-tabler, which many of the 109 players are.

[microbet]

If long time thinking means anything, I would think it would indicate that it wasn't a bluff.

[schwza]

my guess is that he had a very strong hand like a set and worried that the overcard would make you check behind. i'd give it up.

I think your usually beat here unless the 109s have more tricky players in them than I think they do. I mean seriously, does the average 109 player have bluffing in this spot in their repertoire?

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
Porbally. I probally woulda made some sort of blocking bet on the river. But I dont plat $109's so my opinion might be irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your opinion is irrelevant because it makes no sense.

[The Don]

Seems too big to be a value bet. If I knew I had the best hand I would bet 250-300. Unless villian knows that you are a very good player I don't think he would bet your whole stack for value. That leads me to believe that it is a bluff since he is most likely a random and has little info on you (speculation of course).

It is likely he missed one of the 2 flush draws and got greedy here. It is also likely he hit his king (FD+1 over draw) and is making this bet so he won't have to make any decisions later on in the action. Very tough hand but overall I just don't think you have the best hand enough to make this call profitable.

[Apathy]

i think this is a call. The only hand I see the villian legitamatly waking up and betting the river like that is KQ, but KQ would usually make a smaller bet. I would expect to see Axs

[Hendricks433]

sorry totally misread the hand. Thats what I get for surfing while playing.

[Michael C.]

In many cases like this I think you have as good a chance of getting called here by pushing than by betting 250-300. I think a LOT of players in the 109s, see a push here as a potential missed draw, and will call you with a hand as bad as second pair. And if someone has a Q he might get pissed off at your push and think "you aren't going to bully me!" Sometimes things like "all in bets = bluff" become conventional wisdom so much that you can use that for you and make more money in the process. Of course it does depend on the player you are up again, for sure.