($22) Tough spot with AKo preflop

[ilya]

Overpush or fold?

***** Hand History for Game 2723961505 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:15800736 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Friday, September 16, 21:43:25 EDT 2005
Table Table 13990 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: LogicbombVT ( $1740 )
Seat 3: seahaig ( $625 )
Seat 6: ForkaDork ( $790 )
Seat 9: AndrewBashuk ( $705 )
Seat 10: ZhiznKorotka ( $960 )
Seat 7: StneColdCall ( $815 )
Seat 4: scottc676 ( $1295 )
Seat 2: Max0211 ( $350 )
Seat 5: FrenchPower2 ( $720 )
Trny:15800736 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to StneColdCall [ Kd As ]
LogicbombVT folds.
Max0211 folds.
seahaig folds.
scottc676 raises [300].
FrenchPower2 folds.
ForkaDork calls [300].

StneColdCall ???

[Shilly]

Against a typical opponent I'm overpushing here.

[Karak567]

Oh yeah easy push IMO

[curtains]

I dont find this remotely tough spot. Your hand is just too strong and your stack is too short to do anything but move allin (Although I cant imagine any stacksize that I wouldnt push with here)

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]

I dont find this remotely tough spot. Your hand is just too strong and your stack is too short to do anything but move allin (Although I cant imagine any stacksize that I wouldnt push with here)

[/ QUOTE ]

How about this one?

Seat 1: 2000
Seat 2: 4000
Hero: 1900
Seat 3: 100

Blinds 50/100 Hero has AKo.

Seat 1 raises to t500, Seat 2 calls, Hero???

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I dont find this remotely tough spot. Your hand is just too strong and your stack is too short to do anything but move allin (Although I cant imagine any stacksize that I wouldnt push with here)

[/ QUOTE ]

How about this one?

Seat 1: 2000
Seat 2: 4000
Hero: 1900
Seat 3: 100

Blinds 50/100 Hero has AKo.

Seat 1 raises to t500, Seat 2 calls, Hero???

[/ QUOTE ]

I fold two jokers here.

[KramerTM]

With less than 10xBB in my stack, I can't wait to overpush here. Only when the raisers and myself have about 15BB or more, do I start thinking about this one.

[adanthar]

Here's how the math for that works:

First, without looking at it but at a guess, you probably need to win around 80% to play if you were going to push. Having gotten to 80%, or 85%, or 99% - whatever the math says you need to win PF - it follows that you also need to win that often on the flop when you continue with the hand*.

(*Let's say you call: with a bunch of chips in the pot and your stack smaller, that number will shrink after you see a flop. But that's irrelevant, because you set that up by calling in the first place. So we'll stick with the original 80%.)

As it happens, if you flop TPTK and someone else has AQ, you win more than that often and can call a push. But you will not always flop a pair as often as you should (outs are missing), and more importantly, sometimes you will flop a pair and still have to fold even when you are ahead (basically any time your opponent has > 4-5 outs.) If you call AK here and then flop TPTK but the big stack flops a flush draw and calls a push, you lose tons of money.

So, basically, this particular situation is a fold, but you want to look for spots where that 80% number drops down to something like 70%. That's still not enough to push AK PF into a couple of idiots, but it's enough to see three cards.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
How about this one?

Seat 1: 2000
Seat 2: 4000
Hero: 1900
Seat 3: 100

Blinds 50/100 Hero has AKo.

Seat 1 raises to t500, Seat 2 calls, Hero???


[/ QUOTE ]

Very clear fold IMO, but it has almost nothing to do with the original hand.

[unreal_nh]

of course u fold, u know the guys gonna catch quad 10's!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
of course u fold, u know the guys gonna catch quad 10's!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I swear on my grandmother's grave that it wasn't the result that prompted this...I fully realized that the overcaller could easily have something ridiculous.