value bet UI AK?

[newhizzle]

villian is 77/46/2.8

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.00 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ...

[SGS]

If he pays off a lot of rivers I'd go ahead and bet, if he is likely to bet more hands than he would call with I check/call. From his LAG stats it would appear that he would be likely to bet if u check to him.

SGS

[Nick C]

Against someone who's this much of a maniac, I think I like checking and calling.

One potential advantage of betting, against a more reasonable player, is that you might get him to fold an AK hand you would have chopped with. But I really doubt MP2 has AK, and if by some chance he does, I doubt he's folding it.

Anyway, though, if I did bet, I would call a raise. But I don't think I want to pay two BBs to get to showdown. And it's possible MP2 will auto-bluff if you check to him.

I do think there's a really good chance you have the best hand (though MP2 may be slowplaying, and he may have just made a flush or caught eights up on the river). And I think there's a good chance MP2 will at least call with worse hands. A bet is tempting here and may be best.

In any event, I would be deciding between bet-calling and check-calling.

Edit: Actually, it's pretty unlikely that MP2 caught a flush on the river. I doubt he'd be checking and calling with a flush draw. I think eights up or trip threes, while not especially likely, may be bigger concerns than a flush.

[thesharpie]

Someone with these stats could have something like A8 or a bunch of pocket pairs, and it will be tough to lay it down against a raise. He also could hold a missed hand that will bluff if checked to. I vote check call.

[KDawgCometh]

I think the likelyhood of him trying a river bluff is high with those stats. A check/call will definetly induce a bluff from him. This is probably your best bet. If his aggro was a little lower a value bet wouldn't be bad, but I really don't want to have to pay 2BBs on the river here