what do you think of this heads up fold? ($10)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1180)
BB (t1820)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero calls t10, BB checks.

Flop: (t40) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t40</font>, BB calls t40.

Turn: (t120) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t80</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t160</font>, Hero calls t80.

River: (t440) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t1600 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2040

[Karak567]

I think I am calling here.

[suited_ace]

I think Villain has a severe aversion to money. I'm calling.

I put in a pot-sized re-raise on the turn, in part to avoid a tough decision if another diamond falls on the river. I figure the villain for a ten with the min-raise.

[Nicholasp27]

i don't like it

call with your straight

[KramerTM]

Is it safe to assume that you are not the last 2 left in the tournament? I don't believe I've ever gotten heads up with the BB at 20.

Anyway... does Villain bet this much with full house? I would think he would want to get paid off. But that's not really a good reason to call. We all know we have seen Villain fill up here and get really excited and hope to end the tourney right away.

So... possible holdings:

1) QT, T8, T6 for a full house or quads. Seems consistent with his play. Wouldn't raise PF. Most likely would smooth call flop bet. Wouldn't want to bet you out on turn.
Ways to hold these hands: 6 ways each x 3 = 18 ways.

2) Tx for a set of tens - let's assume he would raise PF with AT. So that leaves us T2, T3, T4, T5, T7, T9, TJ, TK
Let's be honest, most opponents will play a set of Tens here like they're the nuts. They would almost ignore the straight and flush draws heads up.
Ways to hold these: 8 for 6 of them, and 6 for 2 of them them = 60 ways.

3) x/images/graemlins/diamond.gifx/images/graemlins/diamond.gif for a flush.
Again, ignoring hands like A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/diamond.gif+, and K/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif there are 28 ways to hold these. Again, he would probably play the hand the way he did with two diamonds.

4) Lastly let's include the 9 ways he can hold J9 for a chop.

This was done in extreme haste, but I count 28+18 = 46 ways you lose, 60 you win, and 9 you chop.

So EV of a call = (46/115)*(-960) + (60/115)*(+1180) + (9/115)*(+110) = -384 + 615 + 9 = 240.

So based on cEV, it looks like a call. That said, the entire time I was doing this, I was thinking that I would fold this (or at least try to).

Note: I deliberately left out TT, 66, 88, QQ here because I think most people would raise with these PF in this spot. Anyway, including them will only make your fold look better.

Now, not only did I probably waste an entire Friday night doing this, but I'm thinking all the progs out there do it quicker and better than I did. But I think it's good to remind people who rely on these programs the thinking that is behind them.

Lastly, my calculations say to call strictly based on a positive cEV, which we all have learned is worthless if your $EV says to fold. But since I don't really know how to analyze that, I'll stop here.

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Is it safe to assume that you are not the last 2 left in the tournament? I don't believe I've ever gotten heads up with the BB at 20.

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its a heads-up SNG.

[KramerTM]

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Is it safe to assume that you are not the last 2 left in the tournament? I don't believe I've ever gotten heads up with the BB at 20.

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its a heads-up SNG.

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Even in those, I don't seem to get heads up with the BB at t20.

[Hendricks433]

They started Heads up. Only 2 players started the tourney. And theres no way Im folding this. I think your giving your opponent way too much Credit. He probally makes this play with Tons of hands you beat.

you arent understanding, its a SNG that only has two people, each player begins with 1500 chips.

[stanzee]

note: if you were playing this hand against me you were correct to fold.

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And theres no way Im folding this. I think your giving your opponent way too much Credit. He probally makes this play with Tons of hands you beat.

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personally i play a lot of these heads-up sng's (ultimatebet and pokerstars) and the reasoning behind my fold was that if i have the flush i have often made a play almost exactly like this, as weak players will make this call in a heartbeat with a ten. i hadnt played with him enough to give him credit for being either a weak or strong player, so better not to leave it to chance as the blinds were still really low and gave me plenty of room to come back and win.

[KramerTM]

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you arent understanding, its a SNG that only has two people, each player begins with 1500 chips.

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What/who is this in response to?

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you arent understanding, its a SNG that only has two people, each player begins with 1500 chips.

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What/who is this in response to?

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Even in those, I don't seem to get heads up with the BB at t20.

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note: if you were playing this hand against me you were correct to fold.

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want to pm me what you think my screenname is (not so sure i remember yours)...its relatively unique so i think you might remember it

I would fold as well here, i play tons of heads up sit and go's online and lots of the multi heads up tourneys on stars. But really it depends on the player, if this is the first time he made this move you have to give him credit, there are too many hands that beat you. I personally would make this move early in tourneys for a few reasons. 1. its early in the tourney and the opposing player prolly doesnt have much of a read on me yet, so it is likely he would call. 2. he seems to have a chip lead, i'd like to take a chance and end it here and move to my next HU sit and go, if he folds, i have him 2-1 and i will probably win anyway. 3. even if he folds it gives me a crazy aggressive image and he will most often play more passive as a result.

[Freudian]

I'd call. If he is smart/stupid enough to use a giant overbet to induce a call, so be it.