Turn a set river the underfull 2/4 6-max

[Ghazban]

Villain is 40/10 after only 60 hands but seems reasonable postflop. Many of his preflop raises are small (2.5BB or minraises) so he's not quite as LAG as some 40/10s. He tops off frequently and I've never seen a complete donk do that so take that however you want.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB ($490.70)
BB ($396.90)
Hero ($435.30)
MP ($350.27)
Button ($170.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls $4, MP calls $4, Button calls $4, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($20) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($20) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $10</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $50</font>, MP folds, Button folds, SB calls $40.

River: ($120) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $100</font>, Hero calls $100.

Final Pot: $320

[ajmargarine]

SB has Ax. Didn't feel comfortable leading into everyone. It checks around. A9 or AQ should have led however. Turn comes, he now bets his ace. A4 unlikely because of your hand. He calls because he knows you're making a move on him, and would have bet an ace yourself on the flop. 99 or QQ you either hear about before this or they 3-bet you here. River ace makes him think his hand is good, so he value bets his A8s. Hero calls because he doesn't have the cajones to raise. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif (I call too probably)

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
SB has Ax. Didn't feel comfortable leading into everyone. It checks around. A9 or AQ should have led however. Turn comes, he now bets his ace. A4 unlikely because of your hand. He calls because he knows you're making a move on him, and would have bet an ace yourself on the flop. 99 or QQ you either hear about before this or they 3-bet you here. River ace makes him think his hand is good, so he value bets his A8s. Hero calls because he doesn't have the cajones to raise. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif (I call too probably)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think trip aces calls a raise on both the turn and river?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you think trip aces calls a raise on both the turn and river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh??????? Are you talking about you or him?

[Ghazban]

Him obviously

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
Him obviously

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I ask because he didn't have trip aces on the turn when he called you. I suppose he could have missed a c/r on the flop, so why doesn't he 3-bet you on the turn? If he puts you on 44 there, he should be folding to your raise. Otherwise, he should be 3-betting with a hand that beats you on the end.

I'm thinking A8, AT, AJ plays it this way.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking A8, AT, AJ plays it this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if these hands bet the turn, call the raise, then bet the river, do you think they call a river raise, too?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking A8, AT, AJ plays it this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if these hands bet the turn, call the raise, then bet the river, do you think they call a river raise, too?

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I see your point. Finally. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif --Why raise the river when only a bigger boat is gonna call you--

I just hadn't used cajones in a sentence yet today, and felt this thread was a good place for it. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

A good question is: When Hero raises the turn, what does villian put him on and still call?

[jkkkk]

I think your going to see aces full &gt;66% of the time, not sure I could fold this though without a better read.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your going to see aces full &gt;66% of the time, not sure I could fold this though without a better read.

[/ QUOTE ]

(a) IMO, over 100,000 similar situations, Hero is best here &gt;50% of the time easily.
(b) No way Hero can get away from this hand.
(c) I add to my predictions that villian could have a whiffed Qsxs.
(d) Because it was posted, I revise my prediction and say that Villian held A4, which is perfectly consistent with his play all the way through.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
(d) Because it was posted, I revise my prediction and say that Villian held A4, which is perfectly consistent with his play all the way through.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a good reason; I usually decide I'm going to post a hand during the hand, not once I see the results. For this one, I had the slider bar moving up to push the river, then realized that was likely a bad idea and just called. I decided to post somewhere in the middle of that decision.

[aK13]

Is that turn raise standard? Seem grossly overbet since the board is pretty friggin ragged, so you don't mind some other callers to pay off your monster.

I think Ax would play this way more often than any bigger boat, FWIW.

[jkkkk]

I dont see a hand using a stop and go on the river which hero beats here most of the time.

I think you will see a hand that missed a CR on the flop more often than you will see a naked A that checked.

[Ghazban]

Since when is 3/4 pot an overbet?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont see a hand using a stop and go on the river which hero beats here most of the time.

I think you will see a hand that missed a CR on the flop more often than you will see a naked A that checked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you think villian is concerned that Hero may have Qx of spades? That would be consistent with Hero's play. And unless villian himself had the Q of spades, he'd probably be 3-betting instead of stop and going. And if he had the Q of spades, he'd have to have QQ or AQ to beat us, and do we think his play is consistent with either of those hands?

[Ghazban]

Why would I check Qx of spades on the flop and raise it on the turn when my equity has decreased significantly? Unless I had exactly Qs4s (a highly unlikely had to limp UTG), I don't see any hand containing the queen of spades checking the flop and raising the turn. Not that villain knows this, but there are no hands containing the Qs that I limp UTG.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think villian is concerned that Hero may have Qx of spades? That would be consistent with Hero's play. And unless villian himself had the Q of spades, he'd probably be 3-betting instead of stop and going. And if he had the Q of spades, he'd have to have QQ or AQ to beat us, and do we think his play is consistent with either of those hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you trying to say that a set or two-pair would move in on the turn?

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
Since when is 3/4 pot an overbet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh crap. I'm not used to reading NL HH posts =/. I thought you "bet" $50 into a $30 pot.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would I check Qx of spades on the flop and raise it on the turn when my equity has decreased significantly? Unless I had exactly Qs4s (a highly unlikely had to limp UTG), I don't see any hand containing the queen of spades checking the flop and raising the turn. Not that villain knows this, but there are no hands containing the Qs that I limp UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

KQ or QJ of spades. Flop gets checked around. It's logical for SB to assume no one has an ace or they would have bet it in this family pot. It's also logical to assume that you check those hands on the flop based upon your position. Now the turn comes, and he bets his ace. You raise. You either have 44, 49, 4Q, or a draw. He doesn't think that you think that he has an ace so he calls. When none of the draws hit, he value bets his set of aces.

[Ghazban]

While the discussion is interesting, I think you guys are making it too complicated (assuming we're just talking about the river; I don't think anything else I did in the hand is at all debatable).

Folding is not something I'd do against an opponent I only have 60 hands with so the question is between calling and raising. All the discussion of what villain might have is great but the real question is: does villain call a raise on the river with a worse hand than 4s full? I think he doesn't, though of course he might donkbet open trips here, he won't call a raise with it.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why would I check Qx of spades on the flop and raise it on the turn when my equity has decreased significantly? Unless I had exactly Qs4s (a highly unlikely had to limp UTG), I don't see any hand containing the queen of spades checking the flop and raising the turn. Not that villain knows this, but there are no hands containing the Qs that I limp UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

KQ or QJ of spades. Flop gets checked around. It's logical for SB to assume no one has an ace or they would have bet it in this family pot. It's also logical to assume that you check those hands on the flop based upon your position. Now the turn comes, and he bets his ace. You raise. You either have 44, 49, 4Q, or a draw. He doesn't think that you think that he has an ace so he calls. When none of the draws hit, he value bets his set of aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reasonable, but does he call a river raise with open trips?

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
does villain call a raise on the river with a worse hand than 4s full?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I think this is a relatively straight forward call if its between the two, I think worse hands call, but better hands call more often.

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]


Reasonable, but does he call a river raise with open trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

He calls every time he beats you, and not enough when you beat him (though likely more than he should).

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Since when is 3/4 pot an overbet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh crap. I'm not used to reading NL HH posts =/. I thought you "bet" $50 into a $30 pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it's pot-sized. 20+10+Hero's call of 10=40. Raise 40 after calling 10=making it 50 to go.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
Reasonable, but does he call a river raise with open trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ might call a river minraise. Maybe AT. A real raise he probably finds a fold with hands that you beat.

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Reasonable, but does he call a river raise with open trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ might call a river minraise. Maybe AT. A real raise he probably finds a fold with hands that you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats your plan when he pushes?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Reasonable, but does he call a river raise with open trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ might call a river minraise. Maybe AT. A real raise he probably finds a fold with hands that you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats your plan when he pushes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have one because I'm not raising here. I'm calling. OP wants to know if a hand he beats can call a raise on the river. I suggested AJ/AT may call a minraise, that's about it. Not worth it IMO. Because of the times that you are beat here.

[Ghazban]

Villain turns over A4 and MHING. I was very close to raising the river but thankfully took the time to realize a raise is not +EV. Villain cost himself a lot by leading out as I would've bet when checked to and might have called a check/raise.

Anybody have any thoughts on villain's river play? I think betting out was very poor against my range of hands.

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain turns over A4 and MHING. I was very close to raising the river but thankfully took the time to realize a raise is not +EV. Villain cost himself a lot by leading out as I would've bet when checked to and might have called a check/raise.

Anybody have any thoughts on villain's river play? I think betting out was very poor against my range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Such a strong bet is rarely being raised by a tight solid player like you without beating a4.

Let you off the hook by not checking or making a bet you can raise.

[Ghazban]

I was thinking more that the only hands he can beat that can call a bet would bet themselves. If I raised with some weird two pair on the turn and got counterfeited, I'm not putting in another dime under any circumstances. Its far more likely that I raised a good ace or a set or some two-pair which will certainly bet the river as well. There's also the (somewhat unlikely) chance that I would bet a busted spade draw.

[jkkkk]

CR would most definitely better suit villains play here, hes getting a ton of strong worse hands to bet-call and possibly (but unlikely) draws to check through (losing 0 value), he left money on the table.

[fuzzbox]

Seems like a good spot for a minraise.