nfl week 2 picks

[CCx]

NFL YTD: 3-3

Seattle -1 - Short week, long road trip, Atlanta still can't score points (crow like a rooster, but they went 45 minutes without scoring after putting up 14 in the first Q on monday night), and may be distracted after the getting up so big for Monday night and all that went along with said Monday activities. Public still loves Vick, CCx doesnt drink the kool-aid.

San Diego +3 - Marty pulls his head from his ass and actually uses LT this week. Word out of Denver is their D-Coordinator is on the hot seat after throwing vanilla defenses on the field, a week aint gonna be enough time to fix it, especially with Gates coming back for SD this week. SD wont lose this key divisional matchup.

Oakland +1 - I think Oakland rolls here in their home opener, having an extended rest, Randy Moss will be fired up for his first home game in the silver and black - KC defense did get upgraded in the offseason but the Jets are not the right barometer by which to judge them. Lamont Jordan will be continue to be a great weapon for Oakland. I'm still starting Holmes and Johnson on my fantasy league teams, I just think this is a bad spot for the Chiefs.

Fading Big Al's Picks YTD 1-0

This week it's the Dolphins again. MIA +6 at NYJ

(not posting as pick, but gun to my head id take the birds minus the 13)

[CCx]

Adding:

Grand Salami (total points in all games) - under 660

[FishNChips]

how do you go about handicapping the grand salami bet? I saw that and thought "interesting! but how do you come up with that number?"

how many units are you putting on it? is it standard -110 bet?

thanks,
FishNChips

[McGahee]

Hmm, I really like the Chiefs in that game. I feel like Oakland is just going to be getting too much respect all year with the Moss hype. Kerry Collins is so inconsistent and with a crappy defense that team is going to lose every game he plays lousy in, and they're going to lose half the games he plays well in. Plus the Black Hole is a grossly overrated homefield.

[scott8]

Blackhole is overrated, but Raiders still at home, long week, public all over KC after big win at home, Raiders are actually undervalued in the line IMO.

-SC

[CCx]

it is a standard -110, 1 unit bet ... average is about 41.5 a game... i didnt really do anything scientific here, i just think a lot of totals will go under this week, i have a thing about week 2 in the nfl... let's see if it pays off

I agree with all those picks and have them as well in my pool as well as some side bets.

The Chiefs won big last week not so much because they were great, but because the Jets were awful. With the extra rest, I can't see a flat game out of Oakland at home in the opener. The Chiefs will score points, but Oakland will win this shootout by at least 7 points.

[ftball0000]

I like all 3, and the public hates all 3, looks like some good picks there /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

The public likes San Diego.

I agree that the hype around Moss is overblown, especially given Collins' inconsistency. BUT, the Raider defense is vastly improved over last year. A 3-4 where Sapp is your end rusher - who got fired for making that call last year? Take the raiders if Turner decides to stick to the ground game when it is working (Jordan was averaging just under 4 yards a carry against an excellent inside Patriots defense). Chiefs are better but that just means they don't suck as much as last year.

[ QUOTE ]
The public likes San Diego.

[/ QUOTE ]

Worrying about who the public likes and trying to go the other way shouldn't be the foundation of how you select games to wager on. I'm not saying that it's meaningless, but the real analysis should be a nuts and bolts study of the two teams, their strengths and weaknesses, how they match up, how they have been playing recently, and who is coming up on their schedule.

If all you do is look to go against the hype, you would have been betting against the colts and pats all last year. Not exactly a great way to be.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The public likes San Diego.

[/ QUOTE ]

Worrying about who the public likes and trying to go the other way shouldn't be the foundation of how you select games to wager on. I'm not saying that it's meaningless, but the real analysis should be a nuts and bolts study of the two teams, their strengths and weaknesses, how they match up, how they have been playing recently, and who is coming up on their schedule.

If all you do is look to go against the hype, you would have been betting against the colts and pats all last year. Not exactly a great way to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't. I was responding to this post above:

"I like all 3, and the public hates all 3." The public's opinion has no effect on my picking games.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The public likes San Diego.

[/ QUOTE ]

Worrying about who the public likes and trying to go the other way shouldn't be the foundation of how you select games to wager on. I'm not saying that it's meaningless, but the real analysis should be a nuts and bolts study of the two teams, their strengths and weaknesses, how they match up, how they have been playing recently, and who is coming up on their schedule.

If all you do is look to go against the hype, you would have been betting against the colts and pats all last year. Not exactly a great way to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't. I was responding to this post above:

"I like all 3, and the public hates all 3." The public's opinion has no effect on my picking games.

[/ QUOTE ]

Understood. Didn't mean to sound didactic.

Actually we were in agreement. Even if the public was against San Diego, there's no reason to feel comfortable about picking them for that reason alone.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
Seattle -1

[/ QUOTE ]

Seattle 21, Atlanta 18

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
This week it's the Dolphins again. MIA +6 at NYJ

[/ QUOTE ]

NYJ 17, Miami 7

Fading Big Al's picks YTD: 1-1

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
San Diego +3

[/ QUOTE ]

Denver 20, San Diego 17

[CCx]

Grand Salami update - 461 with 3 games left to play - unless something really cool happens, this should cash.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
Oakland +1

[/ QUOTE ]

KC 23, Oakland 17

NFL YTD: 4-4-1

Grand salami outcome pending.

[Easy E]

How close are you? There were more unders, so you should have a decent amount of room (the Colts/Jags and Chiefs/Raiders were especially helpful)

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
How close are you? There were more unders, so you should have a decent amount of room (the Colts/Jags and Chiefs/Raiders were especially helpful)

[/ QUOTE ]

So far it's at 501 with the 2 MNF games tonight.

I picked the total under 660.

So here's to no 65-49 games tonight!

[Easy E]

Looks like a lock to me! Congrats

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
Grand Salami (total points in all games) - under 660

[/ QUOTE ]

Total points - 565

NFL YTD: 5-4-1