K3 during the Bubble in a Party 30+3 [Archive]

View Full Version : K3 during the Bubble in a Party 30+3

Dave D

09-16-2005, 04:53 PM

PF I felt like I couldn't pass this chance up, I was getting really good odds here, and also I only have ~11 BBs after the call so I'm worried about being low stacked. I figured around the bubble is always a good time to try to make plays, and that I could probably end up pushing a K3x or better flop.

Post flop I didn't like open pushing, as playing it the way I did would allow me to check raise (and force out a bluff bet) and increase my folding equity, pump up the pot, and see what everyone else does before I make a move. Who knows, I could be destroyed by 2 people who would instacall a push. Checking allows me to see if other people have good hands. For example, if everyone folds to an EP min bet, I know a check/raise has a good chance of working here. When I pushed, I realize villian has a lot of chips, but I also know that he's calling of 1/3 of his stack, and I'm only giving him odds of having to call 2700 to win 3700 or 1.37 to 1, not great. Comments as to the feasability of a check/raise here working are appreciated. As I was told, "you aren't bluffing, you have a K", but I still like it better if villian folds.

Anyway, this is the 7th hand at this table so I don't have much info, I'd been in two pots before, in the blinds, and folded on the flop. So the table should I suppose see me as tight, and I don't have much info on the table. Nothing stood out about the table's playing behavior, seemed pretty standard around the bubble play. We're at ~140 people, 120 get paid, 1200 entrants, Party 30+3 at 8:10 EST.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

saw flop|saw showdown

CO (t6576)
Button (t10698)
Hero (t4420)
BB (t8655)
UTG (t7250)
UTG+1 (t9271)
UTG+2 (t19908)
MP1 (t11276)
MP2 (t2415)
MP3 (t1580)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t400, UTG+2 calls t400, 2 folds, MP3 calls t400, 1 fold, Button calls t400, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t2400) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets t1300, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, Button folds, BB folds, Hero pushes for 2720 extra of villian's bet...

Final Pot: t6420

edit: Oh yeah, it it was really hard for me to put anyone on something like AK (or AQ) or TT-AA b/c no one raised PF. Another reason I thought my had actually has a good chance of being good, but also that I'll get a fold b/c he's bluffing and no one made anything good on that flop. I felt like UTG's bet was him just trying to take down the pot w/o a hand. I think a strong king or any strong hand c/r's here from early position w/ so many actors he knows someone's gonna bet. At the same time if he was actually concerned about protecting his hand, he'd have bet closer to 2/3, pot, or even pushed. But I may be giving him too much credit in his poker playing ability.

Exitonly

09-16-2005, 05:00 PM

Well, just like that 94o post.. i like the line on the flop, but preflop i think this has to be a fold, you're way too likely to be dominated when you catch your king, and you can't play this hand for 2 pair+ value because you dont have enough to make it worth it, even if they double you up when you hit.

flopping 2 pair or better is 29:1 against

woodguy

09-16-2005, 05:09 PM

What hand gets open limped, then gets bet on this flop into 4 others that you beat, or he lays down getting the odds he's getting?

Not much I think.

Or at the very least you're a big dog to the range he bets here.

Kinda looks like AA missed a limp re-raise to me, but I see monsters and dead people when EP open limps at the bubble.

What range do you put him on?

I don't fold PF, but I probably check/fold the flop.

I would like it better if it were the button or MP betting here, but UTG+1 is betting into a field of 4 with 2 to act behind him.

I fold.

Regards,
Woodguy

Dave D

09-16-2005, 05:10 PM

I disagree, with this many actors I had reason to believe that I could get trippled up, or at least take significant amounts from more than 1 person doubling me up. Investing 200 to win 4k is 20:1, so all I need is a little more. I mean, I get what you're saying, but so many actors this late in one of these tourneys is pretty rare, and I felt like I had to capitalize.

I felt I was somewhat more desperate than usual b/c I only have 10 BBs, so I needed to gamble it up a little. Also, I have a lot of fold equity b/c its the bubble. I think the FE outweighs a lot of the implied odds considerations.

Exitonly

09-16-2005, 05:14 PM

Listen to what you just said, if you can guarantee doubling up you're getting 20:1....

but you need 29:1, and you can't 'guarantee' doubling up, you just said now that you thought you could get EP to fold, so you werent doubling up there.. and even if your all in gets called you get sucked out on.

Playing it for twopair+ value i think is a leak... and playing it for the K makes it too easy to get dominated i think.

Dave D

09-16-2005, 06:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Listen to what you just said, if you can guarantee doubling up you're getting 20:1....

but you need 29:1, and you can't 'guarantee' doubling up, you just said now that you thought you could get EP to fold, so you werent doubling up there.. and even if your all in gets called you get sucked out on.

Playing it for twopair+ value i think is a leak... and playing it for the K makes it too easy to get dominated i think.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm trying to say is that winning a pot just from FE outweighs not being sure I'll get implied odds if I hit. In other words, I might not hit, but b/c it's the bubble, I might be able to check/push and still win with air.

PF I'm thinking there's a reasonable chance I'll get implied odds, but there's also a reasonable chance I can win this w/o a showdown (because it's the bubble and people tighten up on the bubble). I also have to consider I only have 10 big blinds.

Dave D

09-16-2005, 06:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What hand gets open limped, then gets bet on this flop into 4 others that you beat, or he lays down getting the odds he's getting?

Not much I think.

Or at the very least you're a big dog to the range he bets here.

Kinda looks like AA missed a limp re-raise to me, but I see monsters and dead people when EP open limps at the bubble.

What range do you put him on?

I don't fold PF, but I probably check/fold the flop.

I would like it better if it were the button or MP betting here, but UTG+1 is betting into a field of 4 with 2 to act behind him.

I fold.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, I'm really not used to this kind of situation, normally I would check/fold here, but I've been trying to open up my game more lately and take advantage of situations like this. Considering I'll only have 10 bbs at the end of this hand, I thought I had to take the shot. Would you be more confident if I held KT?

Is he really getting good enough odds here to call me with second pair, or some sort of draw? I didn't think so.

I wasn't considering his range that that much here (though I suppose I should have), but more along the lines that a push could get him to fold b/c its the bubble, but even if he calls I have top pair. In retrospect I think I should have looked at his stack size more, and realize that he's probably gonna call me and I have less FE than I think.

woodguy

09-16-2005, 07:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Would you be more confident if I held KT?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had KT I may feel better, but I doubt he's open limping w/ K9 or worse.

The worst K he should be open limping there is KQ (although I'm not sure I would open limp it there)

Not a fun spot, but 10BB's is not the end of the world, you still have 30 hands to see (assuming no antes) before you have to start worrying about your FE.

Regards,
Woodguy

kuro

09-16-2005, 07:13 PM

I don't like completing with your stack size here with k3. You're going to be out of position in a big multiway pot with a hand that is very unlikely to hit the flop well enough for you to continue after the flop.

If I played this hand at all it would be to open push, but honestly I think I'd rather fold and look for a chance to steal the blinds without people in early position open limping.