Intimidation!

[Punker]

So today I am playing 2-4 on Party as per my usual night time!

I am gifted an A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif K /forums/images/icons/club.gif . UTG, who is not a good player, raises. I Raise In Turn. Next to act cold calls 3 bets. The SB calls all the bets, the big blind calls all the bets, and UTG proceeds to cap it. Everyone calls.

The flop comes unfavorablish:

T /forums/images/icons/club.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

I am presently prepared to give up to the UTG's expected bet. The SB and BB check, and then oddly, the UTG also checks! I desperately bet, hoping to fold perhaps even one person, but it doesn't work, and everyone calls.

The turn transpires the

T /forums/images/icons/club.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

Checked to me again. I am dumbfounded at this point. I can't even imagine. But the pot is large (12.5BB already). I guess if I can make even one person fold, its still a good thing, so I bet again. The player behind me calls, then the small blind checkraises all in for $5. Everyone calls again?!?! I am thoroughly in confusion.

The river indicates the

T /forums/images/icons/club.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/club.gif K /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

Thus ensuring that I will get to pay off the river! The SB is all in. The BB cleverly folds. UTG, recognizing a wise move when he sees it, also folds. I check (with the intention of calling a bet from the one remaining player).

What kind of hand is this?

[Punker]

Well somehow I won.

The all in player showed 65o and the hand history revealed the hand of the other player to be the stellar holding of J /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif .

[Homer]

I would check behind on the flop, then raise the turn after UTG bet (because he won't be able to resist checking twice with his overcards). If you bet on the flop, the blinds will call with all kinds of crap because the pot is so large. Then, they will call again on the turn because, well, the pot is still pretty big. By waiting until the turn you keep the pot size smaller and make the blinds face two big bet pressure. Doing this, you actually stand a chance of getting them to fold their second and third pairs, gutshots, etc. You'll get it heads-up with UTG, who is likely to fold his overcards (either right there or to another bet on the river). This should work often enough to make it profitable, since the pot is so large from the preflop betting. Don't try this maneuver against an aggressive UTG, though, because he flopped a set of tens.

-- Homer

[Yerma]

Being among the worse flops for you, I would fail to bet there.

So, I want to take a look at the idea that you should bet to fold out someone because the pot is large. I think you have to admit that you hold very little pot equity on the flop on the average. Exact numbers will be impossible to come by, but there were 5 people to see the flop and I think you will win this pot far less than 20% on the average once you see the flop.

So I would like to take some guesses:
1) You will win a showdown if everyone were to check through maybe 1/8 times. (I think this is being a little generous and the true number is maybe 1/12 times--but I would like to offer some hope so that we have something reasonable to look at)
2) If you fold someone out, this may or may not increase your chances of winning the pot. What would have to happen is that a) your Ace-high is currently best and the other player's fold prevents him from making a pair that would beat you, or; b) someone else holds Ace- or King- high and would make running two pair to beat the one pair you make on the turn or river. If case (a) is true, then any given player is supposed to beat you between 1/5 and 1/4 of the time. If case (b) is true, then any given player is supposed to beat you...almost never...I am lazy so we will say 1/12 of the time.

How often is case (a) true? We will have to assume something since good numbers will be hard to come by. I'd guess that out of the four opponents, noone will have made a pair by the flop, or started with a pocket pair about 1/20 times. Case (b) is similar but we're also assuming that someone holds complementing cards to your own. That will make it a little more likely that noone flopped a pair. I'm going to throw out a guess that that's also true 1/20 of the time.

So I'd say that your bet on the flop affects the outcome of the hand about (1/20 * 1/5) + (1/20 * 1/12). So, add that to the 1/8 times we assumed that you were going to win anyway and you are left with a ridiculously small number that can't be worth a flop bet.

Now, if you could have made that player fold his Jh7h on the flop by betting, that changes things. But who is it that plays that bad? Or maybe, if you bet the flop, you can get a cheap look at the river? But that's a different thing than trying to get people to fold.