ITM% and ROI% - STT Novice trying to find a good correlation

[DawnToDusk]

So I am new to NL STT and have been playing a good amount to get some practice and see where I need to improve in my game. After I read HOH I & II, I set out to play about 40 before I reread them. Hopefully these 40 STT that I will play will help me better understand some of the concepts that Harrington is discussing as well as help me pin point some of the concepts I need to improve upon.

Now at the moment I have a really really small sample size of 30. No need to flame. I understand its small. But my question is more of a theoretical one. Right now my ITM% is 38%. Lets say the sample size was increased to 1000 and my ITM was still 38%. Is this good? To me it doesn't seem good at all.

When I look at my ITM% and say "Oh. Im doing alright. I am in the money 38% of the time." Then I look at my ROI% and see its only 6.3%. Its discouraging to me, albeit I am still a novice. But for someone to be truely a GREAT STT player and reaping a good profit, what should their ITM% be? I would ask what the ROI% would be, but it seems to be really dependent on the ITM%. You can run bad and not get any first places for say like 20 STT, but still be in the money 15 times and your ROI% will increase.

Kind of get what all my jibber jabber means? Maybe a better thing to ask is for those of your who are showing a ROI% of 50%+ (is that unreasonable) what is your ITM%? And for those of your who are in the money 50%+ what is your ROI%?

[durron597]

ITM is a pretty meaningless number. Don't worry about it. If you have more firsts than thirds you will have a much higher ROI than if you have a lot of thirds.

[Nicholasp27]

roi and itm% are not gonna be 50% in the long run...

itm is generally around 38-43%

however, what separates the 5% roi players from the 25% roi players is the dist of 1/2/3

u can be 38% itm and have 25% roi if u mainly get 1sts...

your low roi for that itm tells me you get a lot of 3rds...maybe you are tightening up at the bubble and just trying to eek into the money?

start pushing first in pot when you have decent hand and 5ish bbs...use icm (sng pt) to get a feel of when to push and not to push...and read these boards to learn more about it as well

and, oh yeah, too small sample size /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[lorinda]

There can be a large difference. I would be willing to bet that for people with my ROI, I have the highest ITM. Note that this is almost meaningless, except that I'll have slightly lower fluctuations than others who have the same ROI as me.

However, as a new player, your ITM is a good starting point and 38% would be okay, but not amazing, on Party at first.

In the long run you should be hoping for 40-45% ITM on Party $11, but you'll move up before you hit 45.. and I think that all kinds of funny scores are possible on UB and Stars, but I'd rather not go down that route again....

As for ROI, the one thing everyone here agrees upon is that 50% is not possible, even for the very best.

Edited to remove some stupidity.

Lori

[DawnToDusk]

I don't think I have been tightening up on the bubble nessicarily. Lets find out together maybe?

So I play $5+1 STT on PP right now and I get a whole slew of players at the table. Most of them though are loose/passive players, loose/aggressive players, or tight/passive. When it gets down to the last four or five I do loosen up and try to steal the blinds some if my stack warrants it. If it doesn't (IE its small /images/graemlins/frown.gif ) then I will be the first to push in with any reasonable hand most the times. Yet maybe my problem when I am stealing blinds are the two players to my left.

When I look at them and analyze the hands they have been playing/showing, how often they see a flop, etc., I tend to bet my more weaker/marginal hands against tight players. When it is two loose players (or even one tight or loose) to my left I tend to wait for better holdings. Like for example on the button I raised with Q8s against two tight players but where as if they are loose, I would usually pass up on this oppurtnity to steal the blinds. Is this a failure here on my part?

Am I tightening up to much when its 4-5 handed when I have two loose players to my left?

[chisness]

necessarily*

at the 33s, mine is a bit below 38%, which is probably pretty mediocre, but i'm still able to get a solid roi

one thing i have noticed is that my itm % has been fairly constant from a few hundred tourneys to a few thousand

[DawnToDusk]

Thanks for your reply.

What kind of ROI% could we be looking at for a player who makes a decent return on his money? For example maybe a player who plays STT as a way to supplement his incomce source? He has studied the game extensviely, has been playing for several years, seeks to continuously improve his play, and is a frequent 2+2er. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Maybe someone who works 40 hours a week and comes home and plays a STT or two when he feels good still.

And what kind of ROI% can a professional expect? Someone who plays STT almost exclusively and uses the winnings to pay the bills? Or is this a bad comparison of ROI% for two different people?

[DawnToDusk]

What is your sample size for the 33's and what ROI% are you running, if you don't mind me asking?

[lorinda]

Please read the FAQ, I'll answer this once because I'm bored and you're polite, however this and many other questions you're probably bursting to ask are answered in there.

A casual but good 2+2er who plays maybe 40 SNGs a week will probably expect to get to around 20% in the 10s I would imagine. A top notch pro type could probably push this to, <Being careful not to drag up old arguments> maybe 35-40%. A wide range there but it would be in there somewhere.

When you get to the $33s, I'd guess that the casual/good would get to 10% or so and the pro type maybe 20%.

Again, I've kept this simple as it can be argued forever and often is.

Lori

[DawnToDusk]

Thanks for your patience and answering my question. I will head straight to the FAQ. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]

Edited to remove some stupidity.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

You're no fun /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[DawnToDusk]

So here is a hand that I played today from a $5+1 STT. This STT went on for an exceptionally long time and the chip lead changed several times. Eventually the blinds became so big that I was in push in mode. Yet my opponents weren't. Is this the kind of plays that I need to be making more often? Even when the blinds are so high?

The blinds in this STT were 400/800.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t2710)
Hero (t1670)
UTG (t2020)
Button (t1600)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t800</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises all in for t1670</font>, Button calls [t870].

Flop: (t1400) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t1400) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t1400) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t1400

Check this out...my fav post /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Good SNG post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1918735&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=7&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1)

[chisness]

2600ish/15ish

[DawnToDusk]

Thanks mate.

[Slim Pickens]

Well, the stupid things about the 6's that actually makes this hand harder are

1) The button might actually fold if you push, even though that's retarded.
2) You can't put him on nearly the narrow range of hands you might be able to at the 33's. There, a player either has AA/KK or is knowingly representing them. Here, it might be any semi-strong hand like A7o or 55, or KQ KJ Kx... who knows.

I don't think it's a terrible play, although it's really hard to tell if it's good or not. Screw it... push.

[Nicholasp27]

i wouldn't after they raised

i woulda pushed the previous hand if first in pot or next hand if first in pot

whenever blinds are roughly 20% of ur stack (ie you have 7.5bbs), then push any decent cards if first in pot...the closer u are to the blinds, the more cards u can consider 'decent'

[Nicholasp27]

check out our poker wiki

it's located at http://poker.wikicities.com/wiki/Sngs

[DawnToDusk]

Well I looked at my hand, looked at the players at the table and went through my head the way they had been playing the whole game and pushed it here. Also I based it off of the fact that I could 1) fold here but not really get any fold equity after folding as my stack would of been a mere 1000 or 2) I could try to push him off as he had been rasising min once the blinds started to get 75/150 with his marginal hands.

I pushed and he turned of K8d.

What do you think about how I went through my mind that if I were to fold this I wouldn't get much fold equity if I pushed after this hand. Does that make any logical sense?

[Nicholasp27]

button raised to half his stack...u had no FE pushing this hand

most of your ev comes from the 80% of the time they will fold and u steal the blinds...

i don't think it's horrible to push here, but i'd rather be first in with a worst hand than push on a guy who already bet 1/2 his stack with a slightly better hand

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
button raised to half his stack...u had no FE pushing this hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Usually, no. Against anyone with a poker IQ over 50, no. This is the 6's. They very well might fold to a push here.

[Nicholasp27]

also, remember, playing 5/1 means 20% rake...u gotta beat that before u can start being &gt;0% roi...so if you had played 10/1 instead of 5/1, your roi would be higher than 6.3%...

[DawnToDusk]

Less of a tax huh... Should I expect anything different from the $10+1 as opposed to the $5+1?

[Sciolist]

I didn't notice a lot of difference, but then I'm used to the 20s and 30s right now. Obviously the main problem is bankroll requirements to play at double your normal limit. If you can get up to the bankroll needed for $10s from playing the $5s, I'm sure you'll be able to beat the higher limit.