On the river with an underboat

[Alobar]

Button in this hand is loose and aggresive. I think his stats were something like 35/20/3

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

River: (20.20 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, I....

[Mig]

You raise, button smooth called you on the flop and waited the turn to raise if he had AJ/A7/AT he would have raise your flop bet to gain information ? I think the smooth call from an agressive player is more like a boat himself ? I think he has TT/77 often here... How would he play a set with position here ? I think he would wait the turn to reraise you... IMO

[Danenania]

Hmm. 77/TT vs. AT are equally likely combo-wise but it seems like a flopped set would usually want to raise on this flop. On the other hand would ATo always be 3-betting here PF? My PFR is over 20 and I certainly wouldn't.

There is also 1 combo each of a weirdly played AJ and a weirdly played AA that beat you.

Another factor: will he be capping everything here when you 3-bet or capping the hands that beat you proportionally more? It seems pretty crazy for 77/TT to cap this river after you 3-bet but some players don't know how to get off the gas.

All that said I think the decision is extremely close and probably not worth sweating over much. I would probably decide based on the voodoo factors (image, betting speed, etc.).

[Mig]

"I think his stats were something like 35/20/3"


That's what make me think he flopped a monster. Vilain would not call the flop with mid pair, he is overly agressive. I think TT/77 here VERY often. He is the kind of player to raise AK on that board... His smooth call me a lot of strength...

[Danenania]

His stats don't seem dumb aggressive though, and raising AT on that flop would be really dumb (not to mention that slowplaying a set would also be really dumb, though more commonplace). He looks more like the tricky aggressive type who plays fairly well postflop than the mindless spewer to me based on his numbers.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
His stats don't seem dumb aggressive though, and raising AT on that flop would be really dumb (not to mention that slowplaying a set would also be really dumb, though more commonplace). He looks more like the tricky aggressive type who plays fairly well postflop than the mindless spewer to me based on his numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

guess I should have been a little more specific on my read. He is more the dumb aggresive type than he is the tricky agressive. Hes capable of 3 betting ATo as well as KQo PF

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
All that said I think the decision is extremely close and probably not worth sweating over much. I would probably decide based on the voodoo factors (image, betting speed, etc.).

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree. I think ~60% of the time he has AK or KQ or a lower set, ~40% of the time he has AJ or AT or AA.
So you're ahead most of the time, but he probably won't cap unless he has you beat. Unless you're ready to fold to that river cap (and I doubt it), it's *probably* best to just call and not 3-bet, but it's so close I wouldn't torture yourself either way.

[ggbman]

How has no one mentioned KQ? I think KQ or a lower boat are more likely than aces full, so i three bet and call a cap. Folding to a cap should never be an option against this kind of opponent.

[Danenania]

Yeah I did forget about KQ, though it's hard for me to believe that KQ wouldn't raise the flop. Still it makes a 3-bet look a bit better. I still think it's very close.

I agree with you that if you we do 3-bet there is no way we can even dream about folding to a cap. That should be obvious. Actually a lot of the value of 3-betting would come from him capping worse hands.

[ggbman]

One reason that QK might not raise the flop is because of the PF action, its obviously less good the play a draw aggressivly if there's no way your winning without showdown, and alobar just about alwways has a set or an overpair here, maybe AK from time to time.

[Danenania]

I agree but Alobar says this player is dumbly aggressive.

[DrSavage]

I raze

[MrBig30]

[ QUOTE ]
He is more the dumb aggresive type

[/ QUOTE ]

This should pretty much be enough to make it a 3-bet IMO.

Also, bear with me here because I am new at this combo thing:
77(3), TT(3), KQ(16), AK(8) = 30 combos we beat.
AT(6), AJ(2), AA(1) = 9 combos that beat us

If he could play all of these like this and if he is dumb enough to cap almost as much with those we beat as with those we dont this should be a very easy 3-bet.

Please correct any mistakes in the calculation above, as I said I am not used to this...

[krishanleong]

I go nuts here.

Krishan

[jason_t]

A question that istewart asked me and a post that Josh made last night make me think the best line on the river is check/raise and call a 3-bet.

Where we are now though:

77 - 6 comobs
TT - 6 combos
KQ - 16 combos
AA - 1 combos
AT - 6 combos (does a 35/20 3-bet this?)
AJ - 2 combos

So 28:9 that we're ahead.

I think I would 3-bet and call a cap.

[SGS]

I would 3 bet this as it seems more likely that he is either raising a straight or a smaller full.

SGS