Fold this set?

1/2 live, full table.

Here are the relevant stacks: (approximate)

hero: $270
UTG2: $450
MP: $200
Button: $250

I am the CO with 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

UTG2 makes it $12, MP calls, I call, button calls, blinds fold.

Flop: $51

A /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif

checks around (?)

turn 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG2 checks, MP2 bets $40, hero?

is this an easy fold?

[jkkkk]

Call.

[john kane]

im min raising that.

If he pushes, you fold, if he flat calls, ill check it down on the river.

If you call this, you are gaining no information about the opponents hand if he fires out a $100 bet on the river.

Id much rather fold than call, but my first option would be to min raise.

[Swedebubba]

[ QUOTE ]
im min raising that.

If he pushes, you fold, if he flat calls, ill check it down on the river.

If you call this, you are gaining no information about the opponents hand if he fires out a $100 bet on the river.

Id much rather fold than call, but my first option would be to min raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
good plan of attack

[ QUOTE ]
im min raising that.

If he pushes, you fold, if he flat calls, ill check it down on the river.

If you call this, you are gaining no information about the opponents hand if he fires out a $100 bet on the river.

Id much rather fold than call, but my first option would be to min raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this also, but would this be different if I were out of position? For example, say I raise and the button calls, UTG2 folds and the bettor folds, so now I am heads up / out of position on the river? If I don't improve on the river do I just check and call even though it really looks like I am behind?

[jacknine]

I really don´t like the minraise. What if eh just flat calls it and then bets out something around $65 on the river? You still haven´t gained a whole lot of information.

Any reads on the guy would help. Is this the sort of betting he would do when he really hit that flush ?

With no reads, I would sooner think that he is just trying to represent the flush. I´d come over the top of him properly and raise to 140 or so.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im min raising that.

If he pushes, you fold, if he flat calls, ill check it down on the river.

If you call this, you are gaining no information about the opponents hand if he fires out a $100 bet on the river.

Id much rather fold than call, but my first option would be to min raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this also, but would this be different if I were out of position? For example, say I raise and the button calls, UTG2 folds and the bettor folds, so now I am heads up / out of position on the river? If I don't improve on the river do I just check and call even though it really looks like I am behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

Button almost never flat calls your minraise with a hand you have beat. So, I would check the river in that situation, and only call a small river bet (depending on the pot odds).

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don´t like the minraise. What if eh just flat calls it and then bets out something around $65 on the river? You still haven´t gained a whole lot of information.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he calls the minraise and bets like 65 on the river, it's either a weak block or he doesn't want you to check down the river (ie he thinks he has the best hand). In either case i think it's an easy call (unless the river is really ugly), and this still costs the same as raising to 140 on the turn, but has the added benefit of showing down your hand.

[ajmargarine]

Call. Raising does nothing. You don't need to raise for more info. Club came, he raised, good chance he has a flush. If he doesn't, your smooth call will scare him on the river. If he's nice enough to have the nut flush when you boat up on the river, you stack him.

[ QUOTE ]
I really don´t like the minraise. What if eh just flat calls it and then bets out something around $65 on the river? You still haven´t gained a whole lot of information.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was a fold or raise situation because just calling might induce a raise from the button or a C/R from UTG2?

[jacknine]

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls the minraise and bets like 65 on the river, it's either a weak block or he doesn't want you to check down the river

[/ QUOTE ]

So on what hand rage do you put him if he flat-calls the minbet ? Has this range changed that much from what you put him on before he made the call?
For me, it wouldn´t really, so could you tell me what info you subtract from his call? Thx.

[elus2]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't need to raise for more info.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he calls the minraise and bets like 65 on the river, it's either a weak block or he doesn't want you to check down the river

[/ QUOTE ]

So on what hand rage do you put him if he flat-calls the minbet ? Has this range changed that much from what you put him on before he made the call?
For me, it wouldn´t really, so could you tell me what info you subtract from his call? Thx.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not only an information raise imo, what about for value? He'll call the turn raise with worst hands (2 pair, maybe Ax, K of clubs + pair). I have yet to play in a 1/2 live game yet where most players will bet/fold the turn with top pair.

[john kane]

Only yesterday have i replied to posts on hands (mainly because i used to only browse the general forum, i really like these two NL+PL forums, really are good) and some agree with me and some dont.

Here i really am surprised people suggest flat calling.

You have position yet you are not going to use it? thats one of the main benefits of position is you do not have to repeatedly call hands hoping your hand is the better, you can instead gain control of the hand by raising and judge the opponents reaction by what he then does on the next street or if he reraises. plus your opponent can then put you on a stronger hand than you actually do so he plays his hands less aggressively if he doesnt have a great hand, whereas you therefore know if he is then showing a lot of strength back you know he must have a great hand, as why would he be showing a lot of strength when he sees your showing a lot of strength - why? - becuase he has a great hand. and by just flat calling he could fire out a big bet on the river and you have no idea what hands he could have, no idea.


One of the worst calls in poker imo is a turn call only to fold to a larger river bet. it simply a terrible turn call. and its what would happen in this situation.
you are solely playing the strength of your cards, with no attempt to work out what your opponents have.

to those who think calling is the best decision, if he then bets $70 on the river, you still call thar river bet? if you do and
he flips over the flush, what do you think? 'i played that well!' no you should think 'if only i min raised the turn he would either of pushed on the turn in which case i fold or he checks on the river either putting me on a higher flush or if he thinks his hand was good he may of checked to induce a bet - i annoy him by checking as well, or he stil thinks his flush is good and bets out $150, which i can easily fold, as he has seen me show great strength by raising yet he still fires out a big bet' 'if only i min raised i would of saved myself facing a river bet vs an opponent i have failed to show any strength against and so i cannot gauge any reaction from him to me showing strength, and so i have no idea if he has top pair, two pair or a flush'


to those who say you dont gain information by min raising - you do. you then can the information of whether he has you beat by whether he pushes on the turn or bets big on the river. he may check to induce a bet on the river.

and to those who may be thinking 'wait a minute, what do i do if he checks on the river, i may have him beat yet im just checking as well' that fine, as there is no great value in betting on the river - he has seen you show strength by min raising the turn so your only likely getting called by a flush unless he is a bad player and he calls you with his ace.

[john kane]

a post about a 1-2NL hand.

classic example of someone flat calling the turn only to the fold to the river when he bets big - again the person fails to work out what the opponent has by raising (although he is out of position so i advocate a fold on the turn)

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/postlist.php?Cat=&Board=ssplnlpoker&page=&view=&sb =5&o=

[Macquarie]

Isn't it important here that we have a strong redraw? A lot of the posts here seem to ignore this aspect.

I'd always flat call here. Why raise and risk a repush forcing you to fold? I'd rather take my cheap shot at filling up to bust the nut flush, or decide from the size of his river bet to call or fold when I don't improve. If he has the flush, we definitely want to see a cheap river - this is a prime spot for stacking him.

With a hand that lacked the redraw (say a smaller flush), sure we should try to settle things on the turn.

[john kane]

you think hes betting just under the pot in a four way pot with the nut flush?

surprising


for me he could easily have a ace is is looking to get rid of people on the club draw, in which case min raising is giving him the option to pay more.
or he could have A with a Q or 10 of clubs and is hoping his ace is good but also has a nice enough flush draw, in which case he's paying more.
or he could have a low flush and is protecting his hand against a club river, in which case your representing a higher flush in which case he will either call the raise and check it on the river, or maybe think his hand is still good and reraise on the turn, in which case you can lay it down.
or he has set Js slowplayed on the flop hoping for an ace to bet and now is worried about the club rivering.

for me thats a scared bet, $40 into $51, that isn't 'ive got the nuts and i want callers with pairs' but more like 'i want folds or maybe a caller and a non club on the river or to not give people with the a gutshot the chance to crack my set or two pair.

with the above posssibilities, a min raise on the whole is definitely better than a flat call.

[fuzzbox]

no, call is good. Raise is debatable.

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really don´t like the minraise. What if eh just flat calls it and then bets out something around $65 on the river? You still haven´t gained a whole lot of information.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was a fold or raise situation because just calling might induce a raise from the button or a C/R from UTG2?

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG2 will almost never bluff raise a strong bet and a call on a 3-flush board, so if he does, c/r, then he has the goods waaaaaayyy more often than not.

[wtfsvi]

Min-raising is a ridicilous idea. Don't. Call is the standard play here I believe. Try to pick up a read so you know if you want to call the river unimproved or not.

[Havok]

[ QUOTE ]
Only yesterday have i replied to posts on hands (mainly because i used to only browse the general forum, i really like these two NL+PL forums, really are good) and some agree with me and some dont.

Here i really am surprised people suggest flat calling.

You have position yet you are not going to use it? thats one of the main benefits of position is you do not have to repeatedly call hands hoping your hand is the better, you can instead gain control of the hand by raising and judge the opponents reaction by what he then does on the next street or if he reraises. plus your opponent can then put you on a stronger hand than you actually do so he plays his hands less aggressively if he doesnt have a great hand, whereas you therefore know if he is then showing a lot of strength back you know he must have a great hand, as why would he be showing a lot of strength when he sees your showing a lot of strength - why? - becuase he has a great hand. and by just flat calling he could fire out a big bet on the river and you have no idea what hands he could have, no idea.


One of the worst calls in poker imo is a turn call only to fold to a larger river bet. it simply a terrible turn call. and its what would happen in this situation.
you are solely playing the strength of your cards, with no attempt to work out what your opponents have.

to those who think calling is the best decision, if he then bets $70 on the river, you still call thar river bet? if you do and
he flips over the flush, what do you think? 'i played that well!' no you should think 'if only i min raised the turn he would either of pushed on the turn in which case i fold or he checks on the river either putting me on a higher flush or if he thinks his hand was good he may of checked to induce a bet - i annoy him by checking as well, or he stil thinks his flush is good and bets out $150, which i can easily fold, as he has seen me show great strength by raising yet he still fires out a big bet' 'if only i min raised i would of saved myself facing a river bet vs an opponent i have failed to show any strength against and so i cannot gauge any reaction from him to me showing strength, and so i have no idea if he has top pair, two pair or a flush'


to those who say you dont gain information by min raising - you do. you then can the information of whether he has you beat by whether he pushes on the turn or bets big on the river. he may check to induce a bet on the river.

and to those who may be thinking 'wait a minute, what do i do if he checks on the river, i may have him beat yet im just checking as well' that fine, as there is no great value in betting on the river - he has seen you show strength by min raising the turn so your only likely getting called by a flush unless he is a bad player and he calls you with his ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great ananlysis of the situation. Often times aggressor is going to have two pair or 4 to the flush and is semi-bluffing. Plus lest we not forget if the board pairs your going to make a lot of money from the guy holding the flush. I think this is line is optimal, but I agree with the other posters that calling is okay also. If you see him check the river, check also. He's either given up on his steal if another flush card doesn't come, or is trying to induce a bluff from you when he does have it. Bet, of course if you fill up. More times than not, you will be ahead in this situation. So it's EV+ to not fold here.