JooWish622
09-16-2005, 11:54 AM
I've been thinking about raising when behind or drawing as an alternative to calling in certain situations and was wondering how to workout the profitability/unprofitability of it. Here are two situations:
You're in position with AJ and you are heads up in a raised pot.
Flop is Q96 two of a suit, you have neither of the suit. You bet half the pot, get called. Turn goes check, check. He bets the river half the pot. TUrn and river are a 3 and 4. Against typical opposition, would a raise here be more profitable than calling? I am thinking that the factors that matter here are the likelihood he will lay down a queen or worse and the likelihood he did not call you with a monster on the flop. THis type of board makes the latter a little less likely, given the low cards. The worst iscalling in this situation and seeing him flop over an 8 or 99/JJ or a low pair which bet with the intention of bluffing. When you call, you're approximately getting 3:1 on it and when you raise you're making a 1:1 play. So, I guess if you think you cant call profitably for more than 25 percent of the time and if you can raise succesfully more than 50, then raise??
Second situation:
When you have a draw, 89 hearts on a J62 two heart board in a raised pot and someone then donk bets the flop, should you raise or call. Now, most of the time if you raise 3x before the flop, you will be getting 6:1 on your call with a say 33+ percent chance to win. Clearly this is equitable but would raising the pot right here be more equitable?? I am not sure how to compute this as I dont know how to work out the profitabiltiy of calling.
You're in position with AJ and you are heads up in a raised pot.
Flop is Q96 two of a suit, you have neither of the suit. You bet half the pot, get called. Turn goes check, check. He bets the river half the pot. TUrn and river are a 3 and 4. Against typical opposition, would a raise here be more profitable than calling? I am thinking that the factors that matter here are the likelihood he will lay down a queen or worse and the likelihood he did not call you with a monster on the flop. THis type of board makes the latter a little less likely, given the low cards. The worst iscalling in this situation and seeing him flop over an 8 or 99/JJ or a low pair which bet with the intention of bluffing. When you call, you're approximately getting 3:1 on it and when you raise you're making a 1:1 play. So, I guess if you think you cant call profitably for more than 25 percent of the time and if you can raise succesfully more than 50, then raise??
Second situation:
When you have a draw, 89 hearts on a J62 two heart board in a raised pot and someone then donk bets the flop, should you raise or call. Now, most of the time if you raise 3x before the flop, you will be getting 6:1 on your call with a say 33+ percent chance to win. Clearly this is equitable but would raising the pot right here be more equitable?? I am not sure how to compute this as I dont know how to work out the profitabiltiy of calling.