Bet turn with 44 against 3 opponents?

[spydog]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero completes, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Turn: (2.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>.....

[Transference]

I make moves like this from time to time and its a dicey thing to figure out when a small pot justifies this.

This is my checklist:

1. How likely is it that an EP will check mid pair or pp on the flop.

2. How likely is it that someone is drawing to the flush.
3. How likely is it that someone calls with overs.
4. How likely is it that I face more than 2 opponents on the river.

Obviously were gaining equity with 2 and 3 so thats fine. The trouble sneaks in when we now have to deal with 4 and 5.

5. How likely is a calling opponent betting into me with a worse hand when checked to on the river.

I think the turn bet is a quantitative analysis and I think it's a bet. The effective odds problem becomes much closer when we have to call one more on the river. A spade might be the most likely bluff card and is probably our biggest scare, followed by a K and an A. I still don't think its a big problem because taking it street by street we can just gauge how likely the remaining villians are to be bluffing and go from there.

I think if we get 2 callers were pretty much done, especially when faced with a decision not last to act.

Anyway, thats my brainstorm effort, Id be gratefull if anyone wants to flesh that out some more. I think in most cases the bet is solid and almost routine but that its actually a fairly complicated and somewhat close decision.

[Grisgra]

Super-duper-obvious bet that you MUST make. Unless you think someone in late position will take a shot at it, in which case go for a checkraise. But it'd be a tragedy if this were checked through.

Yes, it's a small pot. 2.5BB. What's your win rate per 100 hands?

No one wants this one. Take it. Hell, I'd bet any two cards.

[aslowjoe]

Who could call you. BB with a Q going for a C/R that missed or a 6. An early position player that to weak to bet his flush draw. Leading from SB after the 2 is paired I think you have well over a 50% chace of taking this 1 down and you are getting 2.5-1. Looks like a good bet to me

[purnell]

I think a bet here will win the 2.5 bets often enough to make it mandatory. You are in the sb in an unraised pot, the flop is raggy, and the bottom card just paired. Take it down while you can.