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View Full Version : Is this a push? So many leaks... 109


Chaostracize
09-16-2005, 01:58 AM
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Hero (t1520)
MP (t700)
Button (t3150)
SB (t2555)
BB (t2075)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Hero...?

deathpotato
09-16-2005, 01:59 AM
My instict is fold

z32fanatic
09-16-2005, 02:16 AM
I would push mainly because the guy in 3rd is in the BB and will fold some better hands because it is almost his whole stack. It's not a clear push but I lean that way.

inyaface
09-16-2005, 02:40 AM
meh I ususally fold this....CO I might poosh

curtains
09-16-2005, 02:54 AM
Clear fold. You are a bit too push happy around the bubble judging from the content of your posts.

EDIT - I shouldnt say clear fold. Chip wise its +ev to push, however I suspect that due to bubble considerations it will turn out to be -ev cashwise. I've run situations like this and it almost always comes out as -ev, but I should run it again just to make sure.

curtains
09-16-2005, 02:58 AM
Jesus crap Im so rusty, it is a clear push. Forgive me I havent played in a while, Im a bit off on the math. At least I quickly recognized that I might have made a clear mistake /images/graemlins/smile.gif

deathpotato
09-16-2005, 03:27 AM
Well by golly you're right, I think I'm making the mistake a lot of the time of assuming people will call more stupidly than they will in general. To contribute a little, I think even at a loose table this is probably actually only marginal at worst, and the fact that you're about to go into the blinds makes it a push. But against tightish callers this is indeed a clear push; I feel silly for not checking out the ICM after my first post! I wonder if I would have folded this in an actual game - I'd better pay attention to these situations at any rate.

edit - VV I think A8 is a push into good players, too. Marginal if they're calling right, but the blinds make it good in the end.

09-16-2005, 03:41 AM
I push this, this is the minimum though, A7 I fold and probably A8 as well. If there was 6 players I also fold.

I must say I was surprised to read curtains first comment, thought he was weak-tight for a moment there. Just kidding hehe. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Paragon
09-16-2005, 08:15 AM
I'll go against the grain and say fold without running any numbers really. I have only my intuition in making this decision, and making this fold I might be subconsciously choosing to go for 3rd. Not sure why I post this when I can't explain my opinion well, but...

It "feels" like a peculiar situation because your stack is still fine compared to the blinds. Pushing UTG will get folds the large majority of the time, to the point where ANY time you're called you'll be dominated and out of the tourney most likely (I can't imagine being called with KQs/88 unless it's the shortstack).

I'd push if: you had any pair, AJ+, KQ, less chips, or if blinds are going up next hand. Anyway, this might be a leak of mine - good hand to post imo.

Edit: What calling ranges are you guys using for ICM? And if it is a push simply because people fold so often, should we be doing this with lots of other hands less likely to be dominated like suited broadway? I guess that is what doesn't "feel" right to me with this many chips left still.

Chaostracize
09-16-2005, 10:05 AM
Forgiven. I appreciate your posts.

NiR
09-16-2005, 12:28 PM
hero folds.

adanthar
09-16-2005, 12:38 PM
I saw it as a clear push and probably also push A8.

-Skeme-
09-16-2005, 12:43 PM
I push this.

Chaostracize
09-16-2005, 12:54 PM
I don't think it's a mistake to assume people will call stupidly. I get called stupidly on every other table. Hence my $-186 over 354 games. As Curtains stated, I think I'm just too push happy.

Curtains, what is the range you put villains on?

J-Lo
09-16-2005, 01:15 PM
if everyone pushes this, do u also push 76s?

BTW: I think this is a fold, because too man people yet to act. I don't mind 1200 chips-- however, i'm at the $55's w/ a very low ROI.

inyaface
09-16-2005, 01:21 PM
Well EV wise its very close depending on the calling range and I've seen some wierd calls before at the 109s. Whille I don't think it is a bad push I still like folding here. This could be a huge leak but meh. I think two important factors are how often you've been pushing and the general table texture which could affect the calling ranges, as well as (to a lesser degree) how many hands until the blinds go up.

bigt439
09-16-2005, 01:45 PM
I push this barring a specific read. But it is at the bottom of my range.

raptor517
09-16-2005, 02:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I saw it as a clear push and probably also push A8.

[/ QUOTE ]

A8 is reaching the threshold for me.. but i shove A9. holla

Nicholasp27
09-16-2005, 02:11 PM
blinds are 20% of your stack? check
you are first in pot? check
you have a decent hand for ep? check

u are at/near the threshold for utg, tho, i suspect...as your position gets closer to the blinds, i'd open up and push more and more hands...on button i'd push a good range and in sb even more

curtains
09-16-2005, 03:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's a mistake to assume people will call stupidly. I get called stupidly on every other table. Hence my $-186 over 354 games. As Curtains stated, I think I'm just too push happy.

Curtains, what is the range you put villains on?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, but even putting the villians on a looser range than I felt was realistic, this push was still +EV when I ran it in SNGPT.

deathpotato
09-16-2005, 03:56 PM
I realize that people will make donked out calls, but you don't need to put the opponents on correct calling ranges for this to be +EV. In general, if none of the players are extraordinarily bad, a moderately looser than correct range will cancel out the retarded calls that will sometimes happen with players who play correctly (tighter).

raptor517
09-16-2005, 04:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's a mistake to assume people will call stupidly. I get called stupidly on every other table. Hence my $-186 over 354 games. As Curtains stated, I think I'm just too push happy.

Curtains, what is the range you put villains on?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know, but even putting the villians on a looser range than I felt was realistic, this push was still +EV when I ran it in SNGPT.

[/ QUOTE ]

i used to think i was too push happy as well.. so when messing with sngpt, i always made the calling ranges looser than they actually would likely be. its a decent adjustment to make if you think you are being too aggro when the blinds get up there. holla