Folding AA on Coordinated Flop...

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (19 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero folds, SB caps...

Sure, there's a possibility that EVERYONE there is raising draws, but I seriously doubted it. With a bet, raise, and re-raise to me, I have to assume my overpair is no good. And even if it were good now, I'm up against two billion straight draws and a flush draw.

I was given 9.5:1 (29:3) odds and I didn't even think hitting an A would win this! Especially if it were an Ah. Plus, I had no backdoor draws.

And with all this action on the flop, I was thinking I'd probably be faced with numerous bets on the turn as well.

Anyone want to argue for a raise or call on this flop?

[istewart]

Yuck. Don't show that SB capped next time, it will skew responses. The thing here is that CO's 3-bet made you fold but you have him beat almost everytime (and badly, aside from A /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif hands and the like). But this is your classic horrible flop for AA with no backdoor flush draw. Getting 10:1 immediate I think it is really close. With the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif I think I would manage a call, but here your reverse implied odds are absolutely horrible. I'm actually not sure.

I think if I were at the table I would fold, FWIW.

[TomBrooks]

Without reads I'd probably call the three bet. You could have a pair, a lower overpair and a flush draw in front of you.

After SB capped however, I'd be thinking he has a good made hand like a set or the straight. I'd call that bet and try to hit an Ace, preferably not the A /images/graemlins/heart.gif as you said. If I caught that I'd at least call down the rest of the way.

I also should add I most likely would be faced with having to call at least another two bets on the turn.

[DavidC]

I agree with the first respondent. As soon as hero folds, cut the hand.

You're getting 10:1 here... I'd be really tempted to fold here, though... it's probably not best, though.

Edit: And if you're not folding: RAISE! (push as many people as you can out of this pot).

[Isura]

People do wacky things in big multiway pots. Call the 3-bet and call down from there.

And then on the turn... SB bets, and it's raised in front of you. Still call because "people do crazy things in big pots" and now the pot is larger?

[Shillx]

This fold sucks something bad.

Great argument.

I sometimes have to wonder what it would take for any of you to fold AA on a flop in a big pot. Perhaps if the flop were T98 all of the same suit (and you don't have the A of the suit)? Maybe if it were capped instead of "only" 3-bet before me?

[Marquis]

I would cap every time. Capping is way better than calling.

[Shillx]

Are you even thinking about this hand? Who is beating us here?

We totally destroy the 3-bettor here. He is drawing super thin against us like 90% of the time. It is very dangerous to assume that the flop bettor is beating us here. You can't wait to fold AA here just to see that the 3-bettor has JJ and the flop bettor has a flush draw? Terrible.

Brad

I wasn't worried about the 3-bettor. There were two people betting before him, and the 3-bettor gave me terrible odds to continue.

[El Tigre]

i'm pretty sure u guys are way off, i do think you are ahead of the KK-JJ of the CO, but do you really have ~25% equity! Not a chance in hell. I youre up against KK, 6's with a flush draw and say J8, you are not good here. 2 kings 2 6's 8 hearts 2 jacks, 14 outs. you could easily be up against UTG's 87o as he limped and then called the raise as opposed to calling 2 cold. Hell you could be drawing to a runner runner quads/full house. You may write this off as weak tight thinking, but it doesnt look like anyone is going anywhere and u dont have the best hand or draw at this point!

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I wasn't worried about the 3-bettor. There were two people betting before him, and the 3-bettor gave me terrible odds to continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does the 3-bettor give you terrible odds when he is thin money? If anything, you welcome his money going in since he is oftentimes drawing to 2 outs or less.

There is just no reason to believe that you are behind here. A flop bet could be just about any thing here (flush draw, gutshot, pair) and a raise right behind him doesn't mean that your AA is toast. The 3-bet is of insignificance at this point since we kill his 3-betting range. The pot is big and we have little to no evidence that we are beat. Get in there and play some poker.

Brad

[ArturiusX]

I still remember the first roasting I ever got by shill... it was a set that turned a 3 to a flush board. Convinced someone had the set, I folded. What I did take into account was my fullhouse outs.

Yeah, I never made that mistake again /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Now the turn comes a 3. It's bet and raised to you again. Still call down (or raise)? It ends up being capped. Call?

What evidence would ever convince you your overpair is beaten?

So... you had the set, and you were convinced someone had the flush, right? Your wording was ambiguous. I would have called there in hopes of filling up that boat.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wasn't worried about the 3-bettor. There were two people betting before him, and the 3-bettor gave me terrible odds to continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does the 3-bettor give you terrible odds when he is thin money? If anything, you welcome his money going in since he is oftentimes drawing to 2 outs or less.

There is just no reason to believe that you are behind here. A flop bet could be just about any thing here (flush draw, gutshot, pair) and a raise right behind him doesn't mean that your AA is toast. The 3-bet is of insignificance at this point since we kill his 3-betting range. The pot is big and we have little to no evidence that we are beat. Get in there and play some poker.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Shillx I had an entire report written up to disagree with you. Then I reread each post of yours twice, and realized I hadn't taken into account how meaningless the CO 3-bet is. Yeah this is a call on the flop for sure.

Tread carefully though, OP. Let's say the following hands are out against you:

JJ
AhJh
JT
98
K9

You have about 25% equity in this spot. I still maintain that in the $.5/1 it is not at all unreasonable for the cold-callers to show up with the nuts or middle set here every now and then and leave you drawing practically dead. But the pot is [censored] huge.

I think capping the flop is absolutely horrible though. For one, you just don't have the equity and nobody is folding anything you want out of the hand. Secondly, if you cap the flop the turn checks to you and you give the field in the neighborhood of ~20:1 on a turn call. If you call the flop (and CO's 3-bet is the last action), you're set up in a decent spot to face everyone with two cold on the turn. Despite the (probably) favorable pot odds everyone will be getting, it's the best chance you have of protecting your hand I would think.

[Marquis]

Capping the flop is horrible with likely the best hand? You don't want to face SB with 3 bets?

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
People do wacky things in big multiway pots. Call the 3-bet and call down from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's a hand from my days of playing poker when I didn't seek out opportunities to fold the nuts.

example (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2197036&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1)

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Capping the flop is horrible with likely the best hand? You don't want to face SB with 3 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

I must say I disagree with Shill's assessment that there is "no indication" we are beat here as this is a fairly passive game. But we should continue. I listed two negative of capping above. You need to realize that there are a lot of turn cards that you are going to be folding on, so you'd prefer as few bets go in as possible at the moment. Also, capping won't force SB out with anything we want him to fold. He'll be getting 11:1+ easily.

[Shillx]

I must say I disagree with Shill's assessment that there is "no indication" we are beat here as this is a fairly passive game.

What I mean is that we don't know if anyone has a straight or a set. If those hands aren't out there, we have to press on. We can fight against stuff like 87s. They aren't of grave concern here. I would only fold here if someone turned up one of those hands. Just because donkey A bet the flop doesn't mean he flopped the nuts.

I'm not saying that this is a great spot by any means. If we are best now, we will have to dodge a lot of ugly cards. We aren't going to come out on top anywhere near 50% of the time, but if we fold now with 30% equity we are making a massive misstep.


The other nice thing about these spots is that people are oftentimes getting "schooled". So if someone calls the flop with K2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, it doesn't matter if another dude calls with A3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. So just beacuse everyone appears to be drawing live against us, a lot of the draws overlap and actually help us here.

Brad

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I still remember the first roasting I ever got by shill...

[/ QUOTE ]

Good times. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
The other nice thing about these spots is that people are oftentimes getting "schooled". So if someone calls the flop with K2 , it doesn't matter if another dude calls with A3 . So just beacuse everyone appears to be drawing live against us, a lot of the draws overlap and actually help us here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice point. Overlooked that.

It's not even close to similar to this hand.

You're against a known maniac. I call down with AK unimproved against them. The board isn't even close to as coordinated as this. And the only ones raising are you and the maniac.

From the situation you've suggested... someone betting a draw, someone betting a pair, and CO 3-betting with JJ. We only have 20% equity.

The KT and A9 were actual hands at showdown (all the rest were made up). I'll share the rest later.

Board: 8h 7h 6s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 20.7207 % 20.72% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 39.3393 % 39.34% 00.00% { Ah9h }
Hand 3: 12.3123 % 12.31% 00.00% { KcTc }
Hand 4: 16.0661 % 11.11% 04.95% { 6h5h }
Hand 5: 05.1051 % 00.15% 04.95% { Qc5c }
Hand 6: 06.4565 % 06.46% 00.00% { JdJh }

-
or the more likelier case of someone AT LEAST having bottom two pair:

Board: 8h 7h 6s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 08.7087 % 08.71% 00.00% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 43.0931 % 43.09% 00.00% { Ah9h }
Hand 3: 10.0601 % 10.06% 00.00% { KcTc }
Hand 4: 06.1562 % 06.16% 00.00% { JdJh }
Hand 5: 07.8078 % 07.81% 00.00% { Qc5c }
Hand 6: 24.1742 % 24.17% 00.00% { 7s6d }

9% equity... not quite 30.

[Shillx]

or the more likelier case of someone AT LEAST having bottom two pair

It is very easy to create scenarios where you should fold. All you have to say is that you think he is betting the flop with a straight and the debate is over. If your mind is made up that you are beat then oh well, I don't give a [censored] anymore.

The presence of a coordinated board doesn't mean that your hand is cooked already. It is scary because there are so many bad cards that can slide off. The fact that you are getting so much action here isn't really a problem. It would be MUCH worse if it came 3-bets to you and the flop were...

J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

There is just no way that you have 10% equity on the board in your original hand. No way.

Brad

You're right, in this hand there's no way I had 9% equity. I had less than 9% equity! I was already against top set.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right, in this hand there's no way I had 9% equity. I had less than 9% equity! I was already against top set.

[/ QUOTE ]

hooray results based thinking

Results:

SB- 88 for top set
CO (pf raiser and flop 3-better)- Ah9h and made straight on river
MP - KcTc

No idea what UTG had. He folded before the river.

[TwoShedsJackson]

If these are typically loose passive Party players I'd likely fold the flop too. An overpair may be best now but the Ace of clubs is the only card I'd be interested in seeing on the turn. With this many opponents and this co-ordinated a board, I don't like it.

[jakbse]

Without the Ah, fold. With BDFD I would see the turn.

[SlantNGo]

All I gotta say is... Shillx is a weak-tightie advising you NOT to fold /images/graemlins/smile.gif

My first instinct was fold but then I saw that the 3-bet came from CO. Here, the CO is most likely drawing to 2 outs. Which takes us to the remaining 2. On a flop this coordinated, a bettor and raiser could have anything. Against a 2-pair you've got 5 outs. The only thing you're really worried about here is a set.

I like istewart's advice. Call the 3-bet, and try to raise a safe turn card. We can't know during the hand that SB will cap it. This pot is big enough that we have to continue to try to win it even if our equity dips below 25%.

Now given all that, I still think I'd fold this at the table. My thought process then would be: Even if we're ahead, we're vulnerable to way too many redraws, and the possibility of us being behind a made hand and facing draws is just too dangerous to continue in a pot even this big.

Hooray for missing the point! He said there's no way I had 9% equity. There was a way, and it happened in this hand. And with this much action at typical loose-passive tables, I generally assume my overpair with no BD draws has less than 10% equity.

[SlantNGo]

It's definitely possible that you could have 9% equity. No one here is dumb enough to question that. However, generally assuming that you have 10% equity here is fearing the worst... if anything, listen to what some of these guys have to say for their experience. Shillx has played much more poker than most of us will have played a year from now.

[ QUOTE ]
Hooray for missing the point! He said there's no way I had 9% equity. There was a way, and it happened in this hand. And with this much action at typical loose-passive tables, I generally assume my overpair with no BD draws has less than 10% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. I'll concede that far.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
Hooray for missing the point! He said there's no way I had 9% equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you unfortunately missed the point. He's saying on average, there's no way you only have 10% equity here.

[ QUOTE ]
There is just no way that you have 10% equity on the board in your original hand. No way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't consider "no way" emphasized through repetition to be synonymous with "on average". Perhaps he's saying much more often than not, but certainly not "on average".

[Marquis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There is just no way that you have 10% equity on the board in your original hand. No way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't consider "no way" emphasized through repetition to be synonymous with "on average". Perhaps he's saying much more often than not, but certainly not "on average".

[/ QUOTE ]

Since you don't know what your opponents hold, your equity is calculated vs. hand ranges rather than specific hands. By doing this, your equity is an average versus all possible combinations of your opponents possible hands, by definition. When Shill says "no way", he means there's no way your equity is 9% if it is calculated without knowing your opponents exact holdings, and that's the way it should be calculated.

Folding the flop is bad because it doesn't consider what all the actions mean in front of you.

SBs bet can mean a decent made hand that beats you or it can mean a made hand that you beat or it can be a draw. So you can't fold to him.

UTGs raise usually means a hand that needs protection that you almost always have beaten. You can't fold to that.

The 2 cold calls can mean that they are also drawing but may also mean they are slowplaying a big hand.

COs bet means he's an idiot and you can't fold to that.

I'd cap it and see how SB likes his hand for 3 bets, and because the cold callers will make very curious folds here all too often.

If it's two bets to me on the turn, I'll strongly consider folding.