What's the expected win rate for top player at multi-tables?

What's the expected win rate for top player at SNG 2-3 tables? More importantly, how about at larger multi-table tourneys? I see it expressed at 1.5-2 BB's for limit ring games, but what about as a % of initial entry fee for these formats?

[Exitonly]

MTT'ers use ROI% (Return On Investment) and ITM% (In the Money) for the important stats.

a good ITM% is aroundn 10-15%.. and ROI can be anywhere from 50% to 400% (or higher, but i'd say it won't stay over 400% over long term)

This is for real MTT's, not the 2-3 table SnG's..

[LethalRose]

for the 2-3 tables id say a good ITM is about 45%, ROI around 10%

Thanks for the response. Those MTT win rates north of 100% seem very strong. I just read something on variance and sample size in the SNG FAQ indicating you needed 500 tourneys for results to mean much. Are there many players running better than 100% ROI for over 500 MTT's?? I am just trying to compare to limit guidelines, which seem pretty well accepted at the 1.5-2BB level.

This seems to low to be worth playing them other than for practicing late tourney play. Is 10% really the standard ROI to shoot for? The FAQ on the single-tables indicated that 20-30% ROI was attainable? Seems the 2-3 tables would allow for a higher potential ROI.

[TomHimself]

i dont think lethal knows what he is talking about

[Exitonly]

ROI over 100% isn't all that hard for a winning MTT'er.. but thers a ton of variance. I've been keeping stats the past month..but i keep them seperate for the levels of buyin.

for Mini (1,2,3,5 buyins)
i have a 600% ROI, 13%ITM over 100 tournaments

for Mid's (10,20,30,50 buyins)
i have a 171% ROI, 14%ITM, over 200 tournaments

and for Big's (100+)
i have a 0% ROI, 0%ITM, over 30 tournaments /images/graemlins/frown.gif

(duunno why i can't make a dent in any big ones. really frustrating)

Too bad those stats could not be reversed right? Guess it is not that easy. I am just surprised there is not more of a universally expected standard ROI, but I guess when you combine the variance, how much time it takes to reach the long-run, the variety of formats, field sizes, etc., it would be much harder to come up with. it is also still a relatively new phenomenon compared to decades of conventional wisdom on grinding at limit cash games.

[FakeKramer]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont think lethal knows what he is talking about

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed. Johnny [censored] Chan couldn't ITM 45% of the time in the 2-3 table tournies.

[TomHimself]

lol Im sure johhny chan caN, i think a 40%ITm is possible but I think a higher ROI should be there too and not just 10%

[LethalRose]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i dont think lethal knows what he is talking about

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed. Johnny [censored] Chan couldn't ITM 45% of the time in the 2-3 table tournies.

[/ QUOTE ]

well a decent ITM for 1 table tournaments is about 50%, so i was guessing. I've never claimed to know what im talking about, i dont play them for a living so i dont know. realistically is prolly more about 35%. your ROI depends really on how well you play once you get ITM. so it can be anywhere from 10 to 30 percent.

[FishInAPhoneBooth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i dont think lethal knows what he is talking about

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed. Johnny [censored] Chan couldn't ITM 45% of the time in the 2-3 table tournies.

[/ QUOTE ]

well a decent ITM for 1 table tournaments is about 50%, so i was guessing. I've never claimed to know what im talking about, i dont play them for a living so i dont know. realistically is prolly more about 35%. your ROI depends really on how well you play once you get ITM. so it can be anywhere from 10 to 30 percent.

[/ QUOTE ]

ITM 40% is good, 42% is very good, 45% is amazing for SNGs is amazing. 50% is just unsustainable. 35% ROI not happening. Well unless you are Johnny [censored] Chan single tabling $5+1 sng on Adderall and Provigil.

[johnny005]

hey guys I normally post on the STT forum.
Just want to clear a few things up.
at the 10's to 30's 40% ITM and 30% ROI is sustainable by a Extremely good player..(soo good they probably are wasting their time playing this level) Once you reach the 50's plus both of these numbers will drop for each level you go up.
I think if you are playing the 215's and hiting 10% you are doing pretty good.
If you play 2-3 tables you wont be making the money 40% of the time I think on a 3 table maybe 20-25% of the time.
Noit too sure about large MTT tourneys though

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
ROI over 100% isn't all that hard for a winning MTT'er.. but thers a ton of variance. I've been keeping stats the past month..but i keep them seperate for the levels of buyin.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm sure this ROI in MTTs has been discussed here before, just like the the BB/100 crap gets beat to death in all the LHE forums. but i haven't really seen a solid thread on here where people back it up with solid data.

anywyas, the thing that i was most amazed, and sort of skeptikal of when harrington said in HOH vol. 1 that for really solid NLHE MTTers, the entry fee is worth 4-5x the buyin. or even 7-8x he said if its a big tourney with lots of poor players. i wonder if this is really the consensus of the top players, or if its what the best players turn in a good year.

another big ? on the matter would be if anyone knows a good way to quantify the variance, like in terms of standard deviations per 100 tourneys or something. i think it was in "poker, gambling, & life" where sklansky talks of the high variance with his MTT sims, but i don't think he did it specifically for a game, or even gave an approximate Standard dev.

i've been trying to get more MTT experience and want to focus more on them, but its harder for me to get too serious with them withouth knowing some kind of idea of the EV, and standard dev... since some of these things take a long time, so i want to at least feel like i'm making a decent chunk when i decide to play MTTs instead of LHE.

[WSOPstar2B]

Here is my thinking on MTT's over ring games. MTT's can help you control your bankroll, because if your competitive w/the field, you'll be playing for a couple of hours or longer even if you don't money. So you could play 8 hrs & maybe only drop 3 tournament entry fees during that time.

But then if things are going well, then you could end up playing only 2 & getting back 5x to 70X your cost. I think the reward to risk is MUCH higher in tournaments than ring games, and (I may be very wrong), but I believe there is less varience in earnings week to week. For example, since Sunday, I've risked a total of $530. I've won a total of $1355 (580 & 1605 if you count a MTT at a local lodge). I dare say if I put that much at risk in a ring game, I wouldn't come any where near a 250% return.

Play one MTT a day if you play a lot of hrs. per day, just to get your feet wet. I dare say as you play MTT's more & really make an effort to learn it (very different from ring games) you'll make more $ in the long run with less risk to your bankroll.