TRWIII
09-15-2005, 06:18 PM
Well last week my analysis did alright for itself, going 3-2, but this beast of a system my professor friend let me in on didnt do so well, but its a small sample. Unfortunately, this system believes in large samples and spit out a whole buch of games this week /images/graemlins/grin.gif. Im glad Im only betting the system bets at quarter units until it convinces me its legit.
Oh, and I noticed last week that I omitted a key point on the system. My stats professor colleague showed me his betting log over the last 6 years, and this system is winning at 56.7%. Which is not bad at all. Ive yet to be convinced.
Same as last week, my picks and analysis first, all to win one unit. The System's picks last, all to win a quarter unit.
My picks
Houston +12.5 @ UTEP -109
UTEP gave up three scores to a clearly inferior New Mexico State team in their opener, while only piling up a little better that 300 yards of total offense. Houston, on the other hand gave a pretty good Oregon team all they wanted two weeks ago, and soundly handled their cupcake opponent last week. I think this line should be a good bit closer than it is.
Toledo @ Temple +28 -109
I know Temple is terrible, but the scores of each of these two teams' games affected this line more then who those opponents were. Granted Toledo kicked the snot out of Western Michigan and Western Illinois, but both of those games were at home and both of those teams are inarguably terrible. Temple on the other hand has had the snot kicked out of them at Arizona State and at Wisconsin, a good, and very good team, respectively. I just cant see Temple, as terrible as they are, being a 4 touchdown underdog at home to Toledo.
Pitt @ Nebraska -10 even
Pitt has some very serious offensive issues, getting completely beffuddled and shut down by the creamiest of the creampuffs of Div I on national television, while Nebraska has been solid defensively (albeit against subpar opposition) and respectable on offense. The west coast offense in Lincoln is still a strange and alien concept, but it puts up at least 20 on the panthers and that should be more than sufficient to cover.
Alabama @ South Carolina +2 -106
Im thinking the gamecocks should be at least a field goal favorite at home. While they have issues running the ball, the cock 'n fire offense (god how I love that name /images/graemlins/grin.gif) has been very effiecient passing the ball (completion percentage wise), and Alabama has hardly been tested so far this season with two easy home games, the last of which was a good deal closer then it should have been. USC's game last week between the hedges showed everyone that USC is going to be a legit threat in every game this season.
Totals:
Alabama @ South Carolina u42 -110
Toledo @ Temple u64 -105
The System (boy thats a good many games):
West Virginia +3 @ Maryland +102
SMU +28 @ Texas A&M -102
Troy State +20.5 @ Missouri -108
MSU @ Notre Dame -6 +101
Idaho +13.5 @ Washington -103
Akron +6 @ Middle Tennessee State -105
UConn @ Georgia Tech -15 -106
UCF +8 @ USF -109
Arkansas State @ Oklahoma State -24.5 -109
Fresno State @ Oregon -2.5 +101
Tennessee +6 @ Florida -103
New Mexico State @ New Mexico -22 -107
Northwestern +15 @ Arizona State -107
And for the second week, my picks (which I made before the systems picks got here) coincided with the system picks so I didnt include them both places. If you included my picks with the system picks for last week, the system went 7-7. Also for the second week a few of the system picks look terrible to me, but Im going to let it wander where it wants for a few weeks out of curiosity.
Archive to back story and first week: First Week (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3343662&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=93&fpart=1)
Cheers
TRWIII
Oh, and I noticed last week that I omitted a key point on the system. My stats professor colleague showed me his betting log over the last 6 years, and this system is winning at 56.7%. Which is not bad at all. Ive yet to be convinced.
Same as last week, my picks and analysis first, all to win one unit. The System's picks last, all to win a quarter unit.
My picks
Houston +12.5 @ UTEP -109
UTEP gave up three scores to a clearly inferior New Mexico State team in their opener, while only piling up a little better that 300 yards of total offense. Houston, on the other hand gave a pretty good Oregon team all they wanted two weeks ago, and soundly handled their cupcake opponent last week. I think this line should be a good bit closer than it is.
Toledo @ Temple +28 -109
I know Temple is terrible, but the scores of each of these two teams' games affected this line more then who those opponents were. Granted Toledo kicked the snot out of Western Michigan and Western Illinois, but both of those games were at home and both of those teams are inarguably terrible. Temple on the other hand has had the snot kicked out of them at Arizona State and at Wisconsin, a good, and very good team, respectively. I just cant see Temple, as terrible as they are, being a 4 touchdown underdog at home to Toledo.
Pitt @ Nebraska -10 even
Pitt has some very serious offensive issues, getting completely beffuddled and shut down by the creamiest of the creampuffs of Div I on national television, while Nebraska has been solid defensively (albeit against subpar opposition) and respectable on offense. The west coast offense in Lincoln is still a strange and alien concept, but it puts up at least 20 on the panthers and that should be more than sufficient to cover.
Alabama @ South Carolina +2 -106
Im thinking the gamecocks should be at least a field goal favorite at home. While they have issues running the ball, the cock 'n fire offense (god how I love that name /images/graemlins/grin.gif) has been very effiecient passing the ball (completion percentage wise), and Alabama has hardly been tested so far this season with two easy home games, the last of which was a good deal closer then it should have been. USC's game last week between the hedges showed everyone that USC is going to be a legit threat in every game this season.
Totals:
Alabama @ South Carolina u42 -110
Toledo @ Temple u64 -105
The System (boy thats a good many games):
West Virginia +3 @ Maryland +102
SMU +28 @ Texas A&M -102
Troy State +20.5 @ Missouri -108
MSU @ Notre Dame -6 +101
Idaho +13.5 @ Washington -103
Akron +6 @ Middle Tennessee State -105
UConn @ Georgia Tech -15 -106
UCF +8 @ USF -109
Arkansas State @ Oklahoma State -24.5 -109
Fresno State @ Oregon -2.5 +101
Tennessee +6 @ Florida -103
New Mexico State @ New Mexico -22 -107
Northwestern +15 @ Arizona State -107
And for the second week, my picks (which I made before the systems picks got here) coincided with the system picks so I didnt include them both places. If you included my picks with the system picks for last week, the system went 7-7. Also for the second week a few of the system picks look terrible to me, but Im going to let it wander where it wants for a few weeks out of curiosity.
Archive to back story and first week: First Week (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3343662&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=93&fpart=1)
Cheers
TRWIII