Waiting for the turn to raise?

Good or Bad?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls

It's been a while since I read the Two Overpairs section of SSHE, so please forgive me if this is way off, but I think you should raise on the flop. If SB had led out and both players had called, I would say wait until the turn, because it would be unlikely you could protect your hand by raising. Here, though, you can face both SB and BB with two cold, so I think raising is best. Also note the two spades and the connectedness of the cards, which I think argue against waiting until the turn.

[MrWookie47]

A coordinated flop argues in favor of waiting, because there are more cards to come that will wreck you, reducing your edge on the flop. This flop action would suggest a raise, since you have an opportunity to protect against gutshots in a large pot. However, given MP's preflop cap, I'm just calling down unless an A or K falls or if it's ever 2 bets to me, at which point a fold is prudent. You're not all that likely to be ahead here, but the pot is very big.

[Bankuri]

[ QUOTE ]
...This flop action would suggest a raise, since you have an opportunity to protect against gutshots in a large pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you cannot protect by a raise on the flop. The callers are getting 9:1 to call and I would think implied odds would make it possible for a gutshot to call. If you want to protect against them you have to wait for the turn.

[BigBiceps]

call for your one out.

If there is any action on the turn after a 4 straight, 3 flush, or ace or king appears fold then.

if an innocuous card like the deuce of diamonds hits then check call until the river, if there is no raising going on. Although, you might already be behind.

[Nightbrace]

raise now, you want to scare people away especially with straight possibilities on the board.

[Shillx]

There have been many threads about this exact topic and there seems to be a lot of discord among debaters though the underlying concept should be easy enough to figure out.

When the villian bets the flop, you are probably a small to moderate underdog against his range of hands. When the villian bets the flop and turn, you are a very big underdog against his range of hands since many of his AK/AQ type hands will check the turn (but he will bet a worse hand often enough to warrent calling). You have to get that raise in on the flop while your hand still has a chance of being best. If you wait until the turn, you are almost always raising when he has AA-JJ and are cooked.

Raise it up now.

Brad

Edit - If you decide to call the flop, you should call the turn as well. The idea behind raising is that you should do it when there is some chance that your hand is good. If you wait until the turn to raise, your hand is rarely good so you should just call with the pot odds that you are getting. Who cares if someone folds KQ when the bettor has JJ? You want to keep those hands around to pad the pot.

Nice post, that is very helpful. What if their were like two more people in the hand to the right of the PF-capper? Thus making the pot bigger and your hand more vulnerable if it is good. Take the chance and raise the turn then?

[ShakaZulu]

I suppose this would fall under the exploiting small edges when you have them? Would you still go the raise/call/call line (assuming no scary cards come out) with something as low as 99 with a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw (same question I guess with TT if you have a backdoor draw also) or push it harder?

[Shillx]

The only time you should wait until the turn in these spots is when you have a really good hand.

Say two people limp, MP3 raises, we 3-bet in the CO with A /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif, blinds come along and all call. MP3 caps it and we look at a flop 6 ways for 24 SB.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Check to MP3 who bets. We should just call here and plan on raising any turn. This gives our hand the best chance of winning against the field.

If you change your hand to T /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif you shouldn't call the flop and raise the turn since you will again almost never be good when he bets on 4th. So the question is...do we raise (note that it will be for value) the flop in a 25 SB pot? I dunno. Since the worst we can offer someone is 13.5:1 it is very hard to get anything to fold here. It is probably close between calling and raising but I might raise and pray that someone folds out. Again a raise figures to have some value in this spot as well.

Brad

Thanks again, very helpful. One more hypothetical for you if you'll humor me. What if you have a hand like A10s and 4 limpers, raiser, you coldcall, blinds come along. Ten high flop. Checked to the raiser who bets into you? Would we maybe wait here for the turn as we don't have as much reason to suspect that our hand is behind? Or raise now b/c if villian does have AK he is unlikely to lead the turn again?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks again, very helpful. One more hypothetical for you if you'll humor me. What if you have a hand like A10s and 4 limpers, raiser, you coldcall, blinds come along. Ten high flop. Checked to the raiser who bets into you? Would we maybe wait here for the turn as we don't have as much reason to suspect that our hand is behind? Or raise now b/c if villian does have AK he is unlikely to lead the turn again?

[/ QUOTE ]

No you should raise now.

There is a difference between the two hands, and I have to get going now, but I will say this....

If you just call the flop with TT on a 875 board, you would be more inclined to raise the turn there then if you called the flop with AT on a T65 board.

I forgot to add that you should raise the turn with TT on a 875 board when you just call the flop and the flop bet thins out the field (you plan on going to a showdown anyway). It is better to spend those 2 BB raising the turn then calling down since you protect your hand that small % of the time that it is good. There is also a better chance that he will fire again with overs when a few people fold. If his flop bet gets called in 5 spots, the odds that he is betting AK w/o a flush draw drops down very low if he isn't a LAG.

[waynethetrain]

The way I understand this issue is that you wait for the turn to raise if your flop raise will do nothing to help protect your hand and you only have a small edge in pot equity at that point. That way you get to see if the turn card is safe. If it is, your edge goes way up and you can then raise.

There is an important difference in this case!

In this case, I think he is actually the underdog because there are more hands he is behind AA-JJ (24) than ahead of AK (16) (likely capping hands). Plus, the capper bet. There is at least some small minority of players that won't bet the AK. The problem is that you would like to find out where you are right now. A raise on the flop might accomplish that. A re-raise will probably indicate that you are behind. A call of the raise however does not guarantee that you are up against AK. He could be slick enough to call and then check raise you with AA or even KK on the turn. However, adding weight to the raise option being correct is the fact that you will probably drive out 1 or 2 weak draws and that has to help you in this big pot.

I think a raise now is the best option.

Is my thinking close to correct?

I think Shillx's posts here are awesome if you have any conceptual concepts about waiting for the turn to raise, and how having a PFR in the mix changes things.

Pax and istewart, I didn't realize that this is what you were trying to tell me the other day, sorry for being such a doosh.

[TomBrooks]

I'm probably going to call this down mainly because MP3 might have an overpair. A straight is fairly often going to get made before this hand is over anyway.

What was the continuation and result?