Poker Cat
09-15-2005, 02:39 PM
How likely is it that your opponent is full of it when he bets?
You've got your stats and your more stats. Aggression factor, VPIP, etc. But what I really need, especially HUSH, is a formula for calculating BCF.
Obviously, loose opponents who bet often have a high BCF. But often, so do the tight aggressive players. They're often likely to push a hand all the way to the end with a bluff or semi-bluff.
Most surprising is the good customers, the loose passive players with an AF < 1.0. They often don't even bet TPTK, so when they do bet they tend to have it. But not always. Yesterday I had a confrontation with one of these guys, all rounds capped heads up, and he showed down an unimproved Q2s. What made this stiff suddenly go postal?
The only clue in his stats (other than his overall bad play) was his Attempt to Steal > 50%. Clearly, this normally passive player could turn thief whenever he thought
he had "easy prey". But how often?
You've got your stats and your more stats. Aggression factor, VPIP, etc. But what I really need, especially HUSH, is a formula for calculating BCF.
Obviously, loose opponents who bet often have a high BCF. But often, so do the tight aggressive players. They're often likely to push a hand all the way to the end with a bluff or semi-bluff.
Most surprising is the good customers, the loose passive players with an AF < 1.0. They often don't even bet TPTK, so when they do bet they tend to have it. But not always. Yesterday I had a confrontation with one of these guys, all rounds capped heads up, and he showed down an unimproved Q2s. What made this stiff suddenly go postal?
The only clue in his stats (other than his overall bad play) was his Attempt to Steal > 50%. Clearly, this normally passive player could turn thief whenever he thought
he had "easy prey". But how often?