TPTK facing a turn C/R?

[sweet wicking action]

SB is 22/13/.75 after 50 hands or so. i've been raising a lot in the last orbit or two, but mostly with legitimate hands. i've only showed down legitimate hands while he was at the table. how did i do? what should i do from here on?


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???

I don't think much has changed on the turn. That deuce is hardly a scare card: he 3-bet with A-2? 33 is also very unlikely. The only plausible 3-bet hand that's beating you is AA (or KK, but that would just suck).

Hero 3-bets the turn. A cap would make me nervous enough to call down on the river, but otherwise I'm expecting to win when SB turns over JJ or QQ.

[Hamlet]

I think I just call this one down. He's not all that aggressive (.75), and he's representing a big hand. He three-bet your UTG raise from the SB. If he's not getting out of line, I would expect a big pair or AK from him most of the time. I think his most likely hands are AK or AA after the turn check-raise. Call the turn, call the river. Bet if checked to.

If he was more aggressive I might find a three-bet, but I think you'd be spewing to do it given his numbers and the situation. Folding is out of the question. Call.

I agree that the .75 indicates that he's reasonably tame post-flop, but I think we're putting too much stock in AA, especially given that we have one of the remaining three Aces. AK is a chop, after all, so extra bets don't hurt there. He is indeed representing a big hand, but I don't expect to see Aces often enough to miss the value 3-bet. If villain caps, I've cost myself two big bets vs. calling down. That's a price I'm willing to pay.

[deception5]

I'm not sure I like the flop raise. I call down after the turn c/r. I also cap preflop.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the .75 indicates that he's reasonably tame post-flop, but I think we're putting too much stock in AA, especially given that we have one of the remaining three Aces. AK is a chop, after all, so extra bets don't hurt there. He is indeed representing a big hand, but I don't expect to see Aces often enough to miss the value 3-bet. If villain caps, I've cost myself two big bets vs. calling down. That's a price I'm willing to pay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont like your analysis here. This isnt a case of him bluffing at the 2, so we have to put him on a reasonable 3-betting hand. I dont think he will do this with an underpair, so that leaves AA, AK, KK (not likely). Maybe his range is wider, maybe not. We arent ahead of any of that. Call down, if we are ahead we want him to keep bluffing, if we are behind we lose the least. Why are you willing to pay 2 extra bets? that is reckless advice. Also, I forgot that he called flop bet then c/r river, a play aimed to make extra big bets with a legitimate hand, more reason to not 3-bet.

Since he cannot have KdQd, and I think AdQd is unlikely, I would just call, and consider raising a river bet.

[EgoSlasher]

Your preflop and flop play are fine. On the turn call, on the river if he bets call, if he checks bet assuming you are unimproved. There's no reason to create a huge pot here, villain has shown nothing but strength the entire hand.

[paperboyNC]

Call down. I wouldn't be surprised to see A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Even though you are behind a lot, you are getting 9-2 on a call down and only have to win over 20% of the time to show a profit.

[krimson]

I would call down at this point. Reasonable hands for villian to have are AK, AA, KK, and maybe overplayed QQ's or JJ's.

I do agree with an above post we should wa/wb this and just call down all streets. It seems pretty 50/50 here and outs are sparse for us and villian. If we just call down it's likely to have QQ continue betting into us. If he checks the river I would bet, and call a raise.

You 3-bet here, JJ and QQ fold more often than not if they make this play. That means that you are just paying off better / chopping hands. I guess you are scaring JJ and QQ away from catching a 2-outter. But the times they have AA / KK / AK here definitely outweight the chance you let JJ / QQ catch.

My opinion is that the best play is to call down, bet / raising a K on the river.

Fair enough. I wasn't so much suggesting that he was bluffing with the two, I simply saw the two as such an unlikely holding that I didn't see why we should be timid on the turn. The reason to be timid would be the check-raise, our evaluation of which hinges on the central question: what do we put villain on? I see a reasonably high pocket pair or another high King as the only plausible holdings here; only two of those hands beat us, AA being unlikely and KK very unlikely. I just don't like to miss bets because I fear the absolute worst. I'm willing to spend the two extra bets because I think I have the best hand here (or I'm at least splitting) more often than not. Also, I disagree with you in that I don't think that he's bluffing: I think he's got a very good, but ultimately second-best hand. I agree with most of what you're saying, but I don't see the extra two bets here as "reckless", and certainly not "reckless advice". The OP asked for feedback, and that's mine. Anyone may do with it as they wish.

Having said all that, I'm clearly in the minority here (a minority of one, in fact), so I'll happily defer to the concensus judgement.

[Aces McGee]

Levarkin

What hands does a timid player 3bet preflop, bet-call this K32 flop, and then c/r the 2 turn with?

AA and KK are two that have been mentioned. AK is another. Anything else?

I think we all recognize that AA and KK are the only two hands that make sense that are ahead here, but the more important observation is that however unlikely they may be from a mathematical perspective, they are much more likely -- given the way the hand has been played so far -- than any hand the OP's TPTK beats.

-McGee

Agreed, and my apologies for being vague about "possibilites". Other hands that I thought to be consistent with villain's line that we beat would be TT-QQ, KQs (there are two diamonds on the turn), maybe KQo. I evaluated the likelihood of those hands, plus AK, to be greater than that of AA and KK. It seems that I evaluated incorrectly, and I'm perfectly happy to concede that, I was just trying to explain the rationale behind what I still don't think is an irrational analysis.

[paperboyNC]

[ QUOTE ]
KQs (there are two diamonds on the turn)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero had the K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.