AK hand

[betgo]

$200/$100K on Paradise. 65 players left, 50 players pay, table is tight. Blinds 300/600/50. I have T17K, about average.

I raise to 1800 from CO with AKo. BB with T20K calls. BB has word "pro" in name, and I have no reason to doubt that from his play.

Flop comes J99,r. Check/check. Turn is a 6. BB bets 2K, call. River is a J, making the board JJ996. BB bets 5K. Should I call? Other comments on hand.

[Superfluous Man]

First, I likely make a c-bet on the flop, planning on folding to a big c/r. Just seems like you'll take down the pot so often with a c-bet against one person that it's almost never wrong to do so.

It seems like you thought you had a chance of being ahead on the turn (as you're obviously not getting good enough odds to draw one card to 6 outs, or maybe 9 outs if he has 88-55; much of the time you're drawing to fewer outs because he has AJ/KJ or you're drawing dead to his trip 9s or his boat). Personally, I think you're behind, drawing slim, and a raise probably won't get him to lay down anything that beats you, except maybe an underpair. Thus, you should fold.

So, if you thought you were ahead on the turn, or you thought he had an underpair, the river couldn't have possibly helped him, so you pretty much have to call for consistency. If you have a change of heart/change of read to what I think is true (i.e. you're beat), you should fold.

I like a bet on the flop, might as well use your position to your advantage.. moreover, a paired board is least likely to hit anyone so even more reason to bet

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
$200/$100K on Paradise. 65 players left, 50 players pay, table is tight. Blinds 300/600/50. I have T17K, about average.

I raise to 1800 from CO with AKo. BB with T20K calls. BB has word "pro" in name, and I have no reason to doubt that from his play.

Flop comes J99,r. Check/check. Turn is a 6. BB bets 2K, call. River is a J, making the board JJ996. BB bets 5K. Should I call? Other comments on hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, why no continuation bet on the flop? I think your best chance of winning this hand is there, and I really think you blew it by not betting there. Now villian probably puts you on a blind steal gone wrong, or you gave him a chance to suck out. Either way, you have position, and I think I'd be betting this about 2/3 the pot and folding to a big reraise/push. I think it also would give you info for the rest of the hand if he just calls.

Sounds to me like you're beat on that river, I think calling is a waste of chips, though I realize it *looks* really bad, and also the pot is huge, I think I can lay down. I think after he bets the turn, and the river you know you're beat. If he was just trying to steal on the turn, I think villian checks the river, but he bets into you like half the pot, sounds to me like a "pay me" bet. If he was bluffing he'd have probably bet more, or less.

I also think your read on him makes me confident that I'm beat here.


I dunno, maybe the level of play in this tournament is different than I'm used to at 30+3s and so my comments totally don't apply. Still, I'm very puzzled by your checking the flop, and I think everything changes when you bet there, and don't know why you didn't.

edit: another reason I see you as beat is both his turn and river bets. He bet half the pot on the turn, and around half on the river. Those aren't bluff bets probably, and he's not dumb enough to think you're dumb enough to call/raise a "pay me" min bet (or too small a bet), or too large a bet. His betting implies that he's trying to maximize what he gets from you, because he knows he has you beat.

I agree w/ others that a c-bet is almost mandatory here, especially heads up. Personally, though I'm really no expert, I like to bet a little more than 3BB w/ AK preflop, especially when heads up w/ BB & SB. I know that a larger than normal bet obviously looks like stealing, but 5BB makes the pre-flop call by BB much more difficult. IMO now he's forced into playing only big hand & you almost certainly have the lead unless you are re-reraised.

Of course, we again come back to the c-bet after the flop. In your situation, I would also lean towards fold on river. To be sure, a re-raise on turn may be appropriate if you thought he was betting out because yoou showed weakness. Then you may able to see showdown for less than his $5000 raise at end.

Anyway, tough position. By the way, I think we've played together several times before. Your name looks very familiar.

[betgo]

Is this there any reason why I might not want to make a continuation bet?

Is there reason to think I might be ahead or tied on the river?

[ QUOTE ]
Is this there any reason why I might not want to make a continuation bet?

Is there reason to think I might be ahead or tied on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

On a paired board, I don't think there is any reason not to make a c-bet in that situation.. Also, you said the BB was a good player so he may have been calling with a marginal hand, but was just too tempted by the pot odds and decided to make a play..

You could very well be tied for this pot, maybe ahead, but investing a good portion of your stack to find out is a tough call.. if you had more money and could afford to call, i'd call.. in your position, maybe it would be better to cut your losses and make a big play later on

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
On a paired board, I don't think there is any reason not to make a c-bet in that situation..

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is J99 a good board to make a continuation bet on?

[ QUOTE ]
Why is J99 a good board to make a continuation bet on?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are only two cards that he could be holding that could be paired by this board, thus reducing the likeliness that either of his cards paired. Thus, if he hasn't paired the board or is holding pockets lower than 9s, he probably folds (but I'm guessing that he c-bets with these and Ts). By c-betting, if you bet and he check-raises, you can get away cheaply. If he calls, you may still have the best hand, especially after the turn, and he probably won't bet out an underpair (although I'm putting this as the least likely holding based on his flop play). He could have been holding a lot of things that have you beat on the flop, but probably only an overpair, jacks, or 9s is good enough to slowplay (maybe AJ, but only maybe considering you could be holding A9 or Js-As given your bet), and he probably lets go of any pairs lower than 9s when you bet. In short, the c-bet has a good chance of taking down the pot, and buys you some relatively cheap information.

Will

P.S. Flush draws could make a difference as to how he responds to the c-bet, the same at the very small chance he is holding QT, but based on his later betting, this is probably unlikely unless his flush draw includes the A.

[JJJ88]

When someone bets into me on a paired board, I often make a big raise and very often I take the pot down without a hand.

Paired boards are best for bluffing. Even pocket Aces and Kings are scared, so does flush and straigh draws (they are afraid drawing dead when someone already had a boat).

C-bets here are chip donation to me.

[badluckal]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On a paired board, I don't think there is any reason not to make a c-bet in that situation..

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is J99 a good board to make a continuation bet on?

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with the other posters that this is a good flop for a continuation bet.

First of all, your read is that your opponent is good. He will see right through a continuation bet IMHO.

Secondly, JJ9 is highly coordinated board, especially considering the opponents call. The call seems to indicate a medium pair, and a medium pair is probably not going away to a continuation bet on this board.

[badluckal]

[ QUOTE ]

Is there reason to think I might be ahead or tied on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

His turn and river lead really make me feel like he is trying to value bet here, and I don't feel like AK is good often enough to call in this spot.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
His turn and river lead really make me feel like he is trying to value bet here, and I don't feel like AK is good often enough to call in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does he have? A J, a 9, TT?

Since I checked the turn, might he play the same way if he was bluffing, figuring I called the turn with an ace and he needed to bet big enough to get me to fold?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with the other posters that this is a good flop for a continuation bet.

First of all, your read is that your opponent is good. He will see right through a continuation bet IMHO.

Secondly, JJ9 is highly coordinated board, especially considering the opponents call. The call seems to indicate a medium pair, and a medium pair is probably not going away to a continuation bet on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeh I like to make a contiuation bet with AK with a low flop, where there is a good chance I am ahead and I can represent an overpair.

I was concerned that villain was ahead with this flop, either with a pp or he could have called in the BB with mediocre cards inlcuding a J or 9.

Since I raised preflop, I probably have high cards or a pp, so it is unlikely I have a 9. If I had a 9, I might not bet out. So by making a continuation bet it seems like I am setting myself up for a checkraise.

I called on the turn thinking there was a good chance I was ahead. In retrospect, a large percentage of villain's preflop calling hands are going to be ahead of me one way or another.

I folded on the river. Villain's betting pattern could be either value bets or bluffs. He could also have value be a pp on the turn and be bluffing now that it was counterfeited on the river. However, I didn't want to take the chance.

With the tight table and my late position raise, I didn't think villain needed much to call from the BB, so I wasn't happy about losing with AK here. However, after this discusion, I don't think I misplayed it too badly.

I thought about whether I could have played AK differently preflop, such as raising 4xBB to discourage the blinds from calling, making an overbet push, or playing for a limpraise from late position.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeh I like to make a contiuation bet with AK with a low flop, where there is a good chance I am ahead and I can represent an overpair.

I was concerned that villain was ahead with this flop, either with a pp or he could have called in the BB with mediocre cards inlcuding a J or 9.

Since I raised preflop, I probably have high cards or a pp, so it is unlikely I have a 9. If I had a 9, I might not bet out. So by making a continuation bet it seems like I am setting myself up for a checkraise.


[/ QUOTE ]

See, I have beef with this logic. If you standard cont. bet the flop and get raised, I think you can safely fold. Villian knows you raised PF, and is probably reasonable enough to think that your raising range is along the lines of KJ/AJ (maybe even any two broadways, if he isn't an idiot, and knows you arent one), or a high PP. A lot of those hands have him beat, and unless he decides to be really agressive, he knows he needs a 9 or at the very least AJ to be ahead.

Therefore, I think he raises you only with the goods and folds a lot of the time here. I'd be wary of a call from him, but I think you're very often getting a free card on the turn here betting on the flop (if you don't hit).

I think you seem to have played this as a WA/WB situation, and I'm sortof advocating the same thing, except "front loading" it such that you give yourself some FE to win the pot on the flop, and prevent him pulling a move on you (which it seems like he could have easily done here).

[betgo]

It depends on your opponent. A good player may checkraise you with nothing knowing it is difficult for you to call. Since you have practically nothing and he could have you creamed, it is difficult to call or raise.