Playing PP from the blinds against steal raiser

[bds]

I’m on a quest to increase my overall performance and have decided to pick apart my play from the blinds. Small sample size, but I find the pattern here interesting.

From the big blind, I have been reraising most of my pocket pairs against a steal raise. I ran this data in two ways. The first way compared my results when I reraised a steal raiser without limiting how many people see the flop, so there could be as many as 4 players seeing the flop, since poker tracker counts an open raise from the cutoff as a steal raise. The second way compared my results when I reraised against a steal attempt heads up. The results followed the same pattern so I’m only posting the results from the first group (could be up to 4 players seeing flop, but typically would be less).

Big Blind Results
AA -- 41 times I reraised & 3.3491 BB/h ----- 1 time I called & 3.7985 BB/h
KK -- 18 times I reraised &.875 BB/h ----- 16 times I called & 3.6845 BB/h
QQ – 36 times I reraised & 1.2403 BB/h ---- I didn’t ever just call
JJ --- 37 times I reraised & 1.0716 BB/h ---- I didn’t ever just call
TT -- 38 times I reraised &2.1883 BB/h ---- I didn’t ever just call
99 -- 31 times I reraised & .9105 BB/h ---- 7 times I just called & 3.2001 BB/h
88 -- 27 times I reraised & .0667 BB/h ---- 13 times I just called & (.7115) BB/h
77 -- 15 times I reraised & .4367 BB/h --- 22 times I just called & 1.4228 BB/h
66 -- 7 times I reraiased & -.0786 BB/h – 33 times I just called & 1.3545 BB/h
55 – 4 times I reraised & .3875 BB/h – 26 times I just called & (.4539) BB/h
44 – 2 times I reraised & .7 BB/h – 29 times I just called & (1.1397) BB/h
33 – I didn’t reraise – 29 times I just called & (.7588) BB/hand
22 – I didn’t reraise – 37 times just called & (.5486) BB/hand

So, from this limited sample, I draw the following conclusions.

1. AA – I should try just calling here and see what the results are over time.
2. KK – Performed dramatically better when I just called the steal raise.
3. QQ, JJ, TT – I should test and see what results would be if I just called steal raises.
4. 66 - 99 With the exception of 88, these performed dramatically better when I just called the steal raise.
5. 44-55 – I should reraise these if I’m going to play them
6. 22-33 – No idea really whether I should test out reraising these, just fold them preflop, or I should learn to just fold these if no set on the flop?

When I think about the overall pattern emerging here, it makes sense to me. With the higher pairs, the deception of not 3 betting preflop will encourage the typical steal raiser to put in more bets on the flop, turn and river than he would if I had shown the strength by 3 betting. With the lower pairs, I want the steal raiser to fold, so showing strength preflop to encourage that. Next I looked at the small blind results.

Small Blind Results

AA – 25 times I reraised &2.662 BB/h --- 2 times I just called and 4.9003 BB/h
KK – 16 times I reraised & (.4031) BB/h – never just called
QQ – 22 times I reraised & 2.5478 BB/h – never just called
JJ – 40 times I reraised & 1.62 BB/h – never just called
TT – 28 times I reraised & 1.8054 BB/h – never just called
99 – 19 times I reraised & 1.5921 BB/h – never just called
88 – 29 times I reraised & .7198 BB/h – never just called
77 – 40 times I reraised & .2581 BB/h – 5 times I just called & .2599 BB/h
66 – 19 times I reraised & .8578 BB/h – 4 times I just called & .237475 BB/h
55 – 13 times I reraised & .0154 BB/h – 13 times I just called & 1.3846 BB/h
44 – 10 times I reraised & .11 BB/h – 11 times I just called & 1.559 BB/h
33 – 4 times I reraised & (.425) BB/h – 20 times I just called and 1.555 BB/h
22 – 21 times I just called at (.5952) Bb/h

1. TT-AA I should test and see what results would be if I just called steal raises to encourage BB to stay in the hand.
4. 66-99 I think I should continue to reraise these because I want to drive BB out.
5. 33-55 – I should just call here and play carefully if no set. If set, then having BB in the pot is good.
6. 22 – I should always - in every position – in every circumstance – fold 22 and I’d have about $2000+ more money this year.

Discussion, comments, or beginner stuff I should have figured out prior to now?

[Surfbullet]

Hey bds,

Your sample size is quite small on all the hands, so it is very difficult to infer whether on play is better than another due to trial-and-error.

IMO flat-calling with any PP TT and above is a clear mistake, since we have such a large equity edge preflop.

Personally, I would 3bet all the PPs heads-up. If the flop comes down KT4 and we both miss it I want him to fold since i'm the aggressor, instead of me folding because he would have hit so often.

Surf

I agree with surf. If you look at 88 from the BB and KK from the SB, you will see that the sample size is ridiculously low. It's generally not a good idea to draw conclusions from samples that small. AA and KK do, however, bring major equity from deception value and your point is well taken.

[bds]

Thanks for the responses guys. I know the sample sizes are small and that what I'm seeing goes against conventional wisdom. But the pattern is there, even with the small sample sizes. The anomaly may also have to do with my style of play.

[aslowjoe]

Hi,
I would be for 3betting all 99 and above you have the edge take and pnish his raises.

SB I get a tad weak with small pairs but think that HU they are either a 3bet or a fold. I usually make the cutoff at about 66. If your just calling say 77 and below you are encouraging BB to come along so that way you are primarily playing them for set value

[bds]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi,
I would be for 3betting all 99 and above you have the edge take and pnish his raises.

SB I get a tad weak with small pairs but think that HU they are either a 3bet or a fold. I usually make the cutoff at about 66. If your just calling say 77 and below you are encouraging BB to come along so that way you are primarily playing them for set value

[/ QUOTE ]


I’ve been thinking more about this. Keep in mind that there are a couple of weaknesses in my game that I’m aware of but having a hard time fixing. One of these weaknesses is that I am not particularly successful at “reading” my opponent’s hand and knowing when I’m ahead and when I’m behind. I’m working on it, but progress is very slow. The other weakness is that I don’t give up easily in these situations, thinking that often the other player is firing away with nothing.

So, yes I have an equity edge with the big pairs, and I want to punish him for steal raising. The question is how I can punish him the most. When I 3 bet preflop, I put him on notice that I’ve probably got a hand I like and that I’m going to be the aggressor postflop. This allows him to then fold his hand easily if he dislikes the flop and I often win a small pot. It allows him to check raise me on the flop or the turn when the flop suits his hand. I’ve tried not betting the flop when the flop is very nice for my hand, and sometimes that traps the other player but often looks very suspicious to him and I don’t get action either way. (Seems like they don't fold of course when I'm just restealing and have nothing - but that's a separate problem. LOL)

Perhaps I can punish him more effectively by just calling preflop and letting him continue to bet into me with what is often garbage or A high. That gives me a definite advantage because then it is up to me to decide based on the flop, turn and river if I want more or less bets to go into the pot. I’m thinking that this advantage may outweigh the extra bet preflop against only 1 or 2 players. If I hold a mid or high pair and the flop brings a card higher than my pair and pairs him, he is not folding to my aggression and I’d rather get to showdown cheaply in those cases. Heck, with just ace high, he is not likely folding in most of these situations. If the flop is clearly one that benefits me, I’d like him to keep firing at me and to be able to raise a later street. If the flop is one that makes me question whether I’m best, I’d rather get to showdown cheaply because I have a real hard time folding pairs heads up in these steal situations.

Say you hold QQ in the BB and the SB open raises and you 3 bet. Flop comes with a King or an A on it. You bet and he raises – are you able to fold there? I’m not. If he doesn’t have an ace or a king, I’d like him to keep firing at me trying to represent one. If he actually has a better hand, I’d like showdown to be as inexpensive for me with my queens as possible. Alternatively, if I 3 bet with that same hand and flop again comes with an A or a K, I lead out on the flop and he check raises me then or on the turn – are you folding?

In terms of playing small pairs from the SB, I think I’m often better off playing them for set value. My 3 bet frequently enough doesn’t fold the BB and then I’m in a big pot against 2 players who likely have overs. Heck, I don’t even really like 3 betting 33-55 from the SB and getting it heads up against just the steal raiser because there is almost always a flop I don’t like. I’d rather check raise him on the flop and see how he responds than have him check raise me with my baby pair. If I just call, the pot is smaller, I can check or lead out based on the flop and decide how to proceed depending on the action of the other players.

I don’t think I’ve clarified this problem enough yet in my own mind, but appreciate all comments and insight.