($27) Flop donkbet improves on the turn

[durron597]

Villian in this hand is tight preflop and a very good player. What do you do differently, if anything?

As far as folding preflop, I am ahead of Villians preflop range, which could include ATo, 77, KQ. If Villian was in earlier position I would fold.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

MP2 (t1500)
CO (t1920)
Button (t1635)
SB (t1725)
Hero (t2305)
UTG (t1230)
UTG+1 (t1555)
MP1 (t1630)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t120</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t90.

Flop: (t255) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t150</font>, MP2 calls t150.

Turn: (t555) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t750</font>, Hero calls t450.

River: (t2055) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t480 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t480.

Final Pot: t3015

[Jman28]

Interesting lead out on the flop. I'm not sure if I like it. Need to think about it a little.

Good bet on the turn. I'd push to the reraise.

Not a huge difference in results that way (money prolly gets in on river if he has either flush draw), but when a scare card hits (like Tc), he will check behind most hands that you beat (AJ, KQ).

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting lead out on the flop. I'm not sure if I like it. Need to think about it a little.

Good bet on the turn. I'd push to the reraise.

Not a huge difference in results that way (money prolly gets in on river if he has either flush draw), but when a scare card hits (like Tc), he will check behind most hands that you beat (AJ, KQ).

[/ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you put a good player on here after the turn raise?

Good question. The play is quite confusing here. I don't think a good player slow-plays TPTK, a high PP or even a set with 2 clubs on that flop. And I don't think he'd raise PF with QJ at a relatively full table. Strange. Fold PF /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Rduke55]

I can't figure out if his turn raise is a milking bet or not. I would think not on a connected board with two flush draws if he's got AA, KK, or a set.
I'd probably call the river. Your call of his raise followed by the river check may look weak so he may do this with a lot of hands you beat since he's committed.
Anyone like the villian for AKh and raised on the turn with the nut flush draw, overcards, and gutshot?

[stillbr]

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands do you put a good player on here after the turn raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm..maybe AcJc, big pocket pair, total bluff? His river push suggests a bluff or a big pocket pair I guess.

[barry111]

The only thing I can say is I think you are beat here. His PFR range is wide here, but I think he hit the flop and improved on the turn or river. Anyway can you post the results so I can try an analyze the villains thought process?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

Hmm..maybe AcJc, big pocket pair, total bluff? His river push suggests a bluff or a big pocket pair I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

So Villian never ever has QJ or a set here? And do you think a good player is ever total bluffing here on the river (assuming he knows I am a good player?) given the pot size?

I'm not sure what you mean by a good player. A very good 25+2 player might read your flop bet as weakness if he knows you're good (why not let him c-bet?), in which case his calling range is rather wide (although no raise is somewhat suspicious).

However, I think any decent player has a pretty slim range of hands that they raise small on the turn with (he's clearly not trying to price out a draw). I think it's either a set or nut flush draw. I like your play here on turn and river--not sure about flop bet.

What do you do on river if a club falls?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what you mean by a good player. A very good 25+2 player might read your flop bet as weakness if he knows you're good

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking initiative cannot be read as clear weakness, it really could be a whole lot of things.

[ QUOTE ]
(why not let him c-bet?),

[/ QUOTE ]

Because most of the time I can make his AK,TT/99 be very nervous and sometimes even fold. And if I get raised it's an easy muck, whereas if he bets it could be with hands he might fold if I bet the flop, whereas a checkraise could be expensive and gets a ton of chips in against what a lot of times is a better hand.

[ilya]

I still like folding to the turn raise.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I still like folding to the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

My conversation with ilya from yesterday.

[22:12] durron597: a solid player raised my blind in MP in level 2
[22:13] durron597: i should have just folded god
[22:13] durron597: i had AQo
[22:13] durron597: flop J high i cbet call
[22:13] durron597: turn Q
[22:13] durron597: now what
[22:13] ilya: wait you're in the blinds?
[22:13] ilya: and you call preflop?
[22:13] durron597: yea that was dumb
[22:13] durron597: i shoud have just folded
[22:14] ilya: i dunno
[22:14] ilya: how many chips you have?
[22:14] durron597: it was a MP raise
[22:14] durron597: a lot
[22:14] ilya: and Villain?
[22:14] durron597: starting stack
[22:14] ilya: so he made it, what, 100?
[22:14] durron597: villian would raise with small pairs, worse aces there too
[22:14] durron597: its' stars
[22:14] durron597: made it 120
[22:14] durron597: 15/30 blinds
[22:14] durron597: i have over 2k
[22:14] ilya: oh dude if it's Stars I think you def should call
[22:14] ilya: esp if you're soooted
[22:14] durron597: he has 1500 ish
[22:15] durron597: i wasnt
[22:15] ilya: flop is J-high rainbow?
[22:15] durron597: no, 2 tone
[22:15] ilya: do you remember the other 2 cards?
[22:15] durron597: 82
[22:15] ilya: was the J in the flush suit?
[22:16] durron597: no
[22:16] ilya: did you have the Ace of flush?
[22:16] durron597: no
[22:16] ilya: alright, how much did you bet on flop?
[22:16] durron597: um
[22:17] durron597: 150
[22:17] durron597: into a 265 pot
[22:17] ilya: i would bet more or check
[22:17] ilya: 150 really looks like a whiff i think
[22:17] ilya: cos wouldn't you bet more with say AJ in case he had a draw?
[22:18] durron597: alright, but i get a call
[22:18] durron597: turn is Q
[22:18] durron597: now what
[22:18] durron597: offsuit
[22:18] ilya: bet 2/3-3/4 pot
[22:18] durron597: i bet 2/3
[22:18] durron597: he makes a 1.5x raise
[22:18] durron597: there is no way this player has QJ
[22:18] durron597: not possible
[22:18] durron597: 22 neither
[22:18] durron597: 88 yes JJ yes AQ yes KQ maybe
[22:19] durron597: KJ less likely AJ not sure about turn raise
[22:19] ilya: i'd call and block bet river fold to a raise
[22:19] durron597: he only had 500 chips left
[22:19] durron597: pot was over 2k
[22:20] ilya: oh
[22:20] ilya: how much is it to you?
[22:20] durron597: 450 more
[22:20] durron597: pot is like... big
[22:21] ilya: ok then i would fold
[22:21] durron597: what do you put him on
[22:22] ilya: JJ/88 very likely
[22:22] ilya: or AQ at best
[22:22] durron597: no flop raise 2 tone board?
[22:22] durron597: already this sng i cbet with both AK and AA, AK had whiffed
[22:22] durron597: it got show down
[22:22] ilya: well
[22:22] ilya: you bet again on turn tho
[22:23] ilya: i presume you didn't with AK
[22:23] durron597: no
[22:23] durron597: but i didnt with AA either
[22:24] ilya: i just can't imagine him bluffing thre
[22:24] ilya: or calling flop with KQ
[22:24] durron597: i put him on AQ
[22:24] durron597: and the pot was so big
[22:24] ilya: i dunno
[22:24] ilya: there are only 9 AQs to begin with
[22:24] ilya: and then only 6 on turn
[22:25] ilya: and then he prolly folds many of the AQs on flop
[22:25] ilya: i can def see him flat-calling with a set on flop
[22:25] ilya: HU i sometimes do
[22:25] ilya: cos threat of flush draw is lower
[22:25] ilya: and it disguises the hand nicely
[22:26] ilya: how much do you have left after turn bet? like 1400?
[22:27] durron597: &lt;I linked him the hand here&gt;
[22:28] ilya: there are just too many spots where he might play AQ differently
[22:28] ilya: he might fold flop
[22:28] ilya: he might raise flop
[22:28] ilya: and on turn i just def think he pushes if he plays
[22:29] ilya: pot is huge, his hand is vulnerable
[22:30] ilya: also if he has AQ you're only giving up like 400 by folding
[22:30] ilya: if he has a set you're losing about 1000

[Rduke55]

So I take it you called and lost?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
So I take it you called and lost?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I dunno, the only logic that really sounds right to me so far is ilya's.

[Rduke55]

But once you called the turn raise I think you should have called the river.

[cha59]

durron597: there is no way this player has QJ

How can you be sure of this? It seems to me that this is one of the hands he could play this way. Maybe the pf raise was a little loose if thats what he had, but what if he decided to mix his play up a little?

Other possibilities of his holdings have been mentioned.

I think the flop c-bet is ok, as a check is ok as well.

ilya's logic makes sense - fold to the turn reraise. There are too many possibilities that beat you and you can get out here with some chips left.

[adanthar]

The PF call is fine by default and may be routine for an LMP raise. The fact that it's (probably) a 2+2'er in level 2 may make it a fold because you lose chips postflop OOP, though.

I'm not a fan of this bet because it should properly be raised with any two and very very rarely make it. Also, given the range you put him on PF, there is now exactly one hand you are ahead of that folds, and everything else, getting 3:1, has a good chance of at least calling.

Anyway, you get called; the speed of the call should tell you something but there is a very good chance you have faaaar less than 6 outs. When you bet the turn and a good player now essentially minraises, that very good chance becomes roughly 100%. While there's an outside chance of T9s, you probably lost to exactly AA, QQ-JJ or 88. I don't think QJ is that likely; he raises the flop.

Anyway, check/fold the flop, STOP TRYING TO TAKE POTS AWAY WITH DEEP STACKS IN SITUATIONS THAT DON'T CALL FOR IT and save yourself the trouble. I know you keep saying that you need to do that in turbos, but it simply isn't true.

[durron597]

Thank you for bitching me out over this horribly played hand Adanthar, I need to hear it. The only thing I might disagree with is:

[ QUOTE ]
Also, given the range you put him on PF, there is now exactly one hand you are ahead of that folds, and everything else, getting 3:1, has a good chance of at least calling.

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A good yet tight opponent (did I make this clear) won't ever fold AK/99/TT to that bet?

[stillbr]

What was teh outcome of this hand?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
What was teh outcome of this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

He had JJ.