($27) 88 bad flop

[durron597]

When this hand occurred I had no clue what to do. What would you do?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

SB (t1685)
BB (t2975)
Hero (t4445)
MP (t2385)
Button (t2010)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t600, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t1300) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???

[Jman28]

That's a tough hand. I think I'd just push.

Most likely calling hands are Ax. AK, AQ, and maybe AJ and AT push preflop, so A4-A9 are likely. KQ KJ and KT are all possible and unlikely. QJ or QT are likely and suck for you. JT is possible, and you need to push him out if you can.

I think you are ahead over half the time because of how often the villain has Ax.

[durron597]

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I think you are ahead over half the time because of how often the villain has Ax.

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At first when I was playing this hand I was like "2 overs check fold". But then I was like "there aren't that many Ks in the deck", and then I realized the quoted point. And then I got frustrated, but I still wasn't sure what to do next.

[45suited]

What about a read on the PF caller? What would he call for 1/3 of his stack with here?

[nyc999]

This probably looks just as scary to the villain. I would take one stab at pushing him out of the hand with a 2/3-size bet. If he calls, then I might shut down.

[Jman28]

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This probably looks just as scary to the villain. I would take one stab at pushing him out of the hand with a 2/3-size bet. If he calls, then I might shut down.

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There is only about one pot sized bet left in play.

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This probably looks just as scary to the villain. I would take one stab at pushing him out of the hand with a 2/3-size bet. If he calls, then I might shut down.

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I think that's my line too. The dilemma is finding a happy medium between not investing too much in a CB but also not giving him tempting odds to call a draw.

Check-folding is weak-tight but hey, you have a lot of chips and if you feel confident against these opponents not a bad play either.

[Jman28]

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This probably looks just as scary to the villain. I would take one stab at pushing him out of the hand with a 2/3-size bet. If he calls, then I might shut down.

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I think that's my line too. The dilemma is finding a happy medium between not investing too much in a CB but also not giving him tempting odds to call a draw.

Check-folding is weak-tight but hey, you have a lot of chips and if you feel confident against these opponents not a bad play either.

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There is only about one pot sized bet left in play.

[45suited]

BTW, the pot size is wrong, should be t1500 on the flop, not t1300.

But how about this? Find an amount to bet that could appear that you want a call, but is low enough that you can fold to a push. Maybe even as low as 450.

I know it's easy to say that someone could view this as weak and push with A high, but the guy's tournament life is at stake. That would be pretty ballsy. Plus, would you really bet huge if you had a K? Prolly not most players... so I think if you make a small bet, and he pushes, you can safely fold, even on the chance that he has just a draw.

A small bet might take this pot down enough to justify this play. Thing is, if you do this and fold to a push, you still have the chiplead or close to it. Maybe that's too weak though. Just a thought.

Yeah. So you either commit yourself to the pot with a CB or check fold. Like you said, it really doesn't matter if you push or bet 2/3, because if he calls, all of your chips are getting in.

He also may be holding 99-JJ, but the question is will he lay these down to a push with that board? I would.

[45suited]

I thought about 99-JJ, but I can't imaging calling for 1/3 of my chips with any of those hands PF. I think that those hands can be reasonably discounted.

The problem with a small bet is that you only really desire a fold (best-case) or a push (so you can get out safely). What if he calls? You gave him a cheap turn that can make him a straight or a flush.

I think my play really varies here from check-folding to a 2/3 pot bet depending on my reads/assessment of the villain and the rest of my remaining opponents.

[durron597]

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A small bet might take this pot down enough to justify this play. Thing is, if you do this and fold to a push, you still have the chiplead or close to it. Maybe that's too weak though. Just a thought.

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This would be horrible for table image.

[kevkev60614]

I think he'd probably call your push with a K but fold without one, even if he has AQ. If my math is right, you should push if you think he has a K less than 32% of the time.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he'd probably call your push with a K but fold without one, even if he has AQ. If my math is right, you should push if you think he has a K less than 32% of the time.

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If I had a King would I really push this flop, especially when it looks so scary to so many hands? I am usually calling a flop push here with AQ.

[unfrgvn]

Lets review the position:

POT $1500
HERO $3845
Villian $1410

Hero has to act first. Choices are:
Check, showing either weakness or a trap(in villians mind).
Push, for sure getting called by a K and I think a Q. Will probably force villian to fold any hand that you beat.
Make a blocking bet. What is the smallest amount that doesn't look stupid? I'd say 500. What do you do if villian pushes? The pot will be 3410 with you having to call 900. Can you fold here getting 3.5-1? If the blocking bet is bigger then I think you are for sure pot stuck.
Check with the intent of folding to a push.
Check with the intent of calling a push. This last option is interesting to me. I think in TOP it says if you induce a bluff you must call. This is better than pushing ourselves because there are many hands that might push in this spot that you are ahead of. May cause you to get rivered. You wouldn't be thrilled if the Q paired.

I hate this spot, but I think I would either check/fold or check/call, and which one it was might depend on factors like how I'm running, my perception of the villian (what can he call 1/3 of his stack with? You may have been crushed from the start.) I think I'm most likely to check/fold. You're still the chip leader and are probably one of the better players at the table. There will be better spots, hopefully.

[45suited]

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This would be horrible for table image.

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First off, table image is a bit overrated anyway. At a certain point, you're going to be getting into bubble dynamics and what not anyway.

Second, is it the worst thing in the world that I have shown that I can get pushed off a hand? So... the next time you have a strong hand, if you think that table image is so important, make a weak lead and snap their bluff off when they come over the top. Hell, they might even respect your pushes more if they somehow get the impression that you're a wimp by folding here.

All I'm saying is this: If you are considering check/folding, then making a smallish bet of around 450 or so is probably better since at least some of the time, it will win you the pot.

I think that sometimes, we give our opponents too much credit... like they always smell weakness and will come over the top if we bet small. They are not that good. Fact is, if they push here, you can probably safely fold. They are the ones playing for their lives, not us. They will fold to a small bet quite often (IMO) and if they push, I think that you can safely fold and move on. Meh.

[Bluff Daddy]

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I think he'd probably call your push with a K but fold without one, even if he has AQ. If my math is right, you should push if you think he has a K less than 32% of the time.

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you really think he would fold aq there?

[45suited]

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I think he'd probably call your push with a K but fold without one, even if he has AQ.

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AQ is not folding to a push here. Nobody is that weak-tight.

[nyc999]

I actually like a bet of about 700 - 800. A bet of that size says to the villain "If you want to see another card you're going to commit your stack". If he pushes, you can fold and still have around 3000 left, plenty to work with. But unless he is holding a K or Q, he's probably folding.

[unfrgvn]

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I actually like a bet of about 700 - 800. A bet of that size says to the villain "If you want to see another card you're going to commit your stack". If he pushes, you can fold and still have around 3000 left, plenty to work with. But unless he is holding a K or Q, he's probably folding.

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You're going to fold with the pot at 3700 needing to call 700? I'm not.

[Rduke55]

Push.
If he folds - great, if he calls with Ax - great, if he calls with anything else - not great (but at least you probably still have 2 outs).
Pushing here looks like a Q and may get him to fold 99-JJ.

[barry111]

I agree with RDuke55....
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Pushing here looks like a Q and may get him to fold 99-JJ.

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[45suited]

The thing is, do you guys really think that JJ or TT is flat calling off close to 1/3 of his stack here PF? If I had one of those hands, I'm pushing to Durron's PF raise.

[durron597]

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The thing is, do you guys really think that JJ or TT is flat calling off close to 1/3 of his stack here PF? If I had one of those hands, I'm pushing to Durron's PF raise.

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What about KJ? I would think KJ folds, my image doesn't suck. AK probably pushes. KQ may just call, but that's a pretty rare hand for him to have. QJs may also just call.

Yet another reason this hand was so tough was that it was difficult for me to put him on a hand that just calls preflop.

My play would be to bet 500-800. It doesn't hurt you, and if he calls, you know for sure where you stand because half his stack is in. Enough times you'll win the pot right there.

A daring minority play would be to check raise. This represents AK or AQ, and if he makes a move at this pot, you will put him for a decision for his tournament existence. If you check he will likely bet, thinking correctly that the flop missed you. Short handed, he might be playing A9-AJ or 55-99 among other things; you can beat many of the hand he would make a move with.

That said, a good player in the button's position should have gone allin. he has only 7 times the BB+SB, and is putting almost 1/3 of his stack in preflop. Hence, button is either a good player trying to get action with a premium hand, or an unseasoned player. So if i respected the button, I would not make my minority play, and against a weaker player, I would make my minority play more often.

[durron597]

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My play would be to bet 500-800. It doesn't hurt you, and if he calls, you know for sure where you stand because half his stack is in. Enough times you'll win the pot right there.

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What do I do if he raises?

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A daring minority play would be to check raise.

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His stack is equal to the size of the pot. Most of the time he bets when checked to he will just push. If he doesn't he is probably trying to milk a king.

If he raises your bet of 500-800, or for that matter calls, you should be done with the hand. fold or check fold.

I didn't call it [the other option] daring and minority play for nothing! A small bet could be other things in addition to milking a king: Q, semibluff, steal. A big bet means he os vulnerable. A lot depends on you view of him as a player. Without information on him, or the desire to experiment, then by all means use the probe bet. But, in $11 sngltbl, you opponents are often novices or less.

[durron597]

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If he raises your bet of 500-800, or for that matter calls, you should be done with the hand. fold or check fold.


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Look at the size of the pot compared to his stack.

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But, in $11 sngltbl, you opponents are often novices or less.

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This is a $27 on stars.

[Rduke55]

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If he raises your bet of 500-800, or for that matter calls, you should be done with the hand. fold or check fold.


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This is definitely not the way to go. If you betting that you might as well push.

No way. This is pretty standard. This bet is little enough tha you can get away easily if you are beat, big enough so that your opponent has to unambiguously strong to keep playing, gives bad odds for all draws, and has a good chance of taking down the pot against some hands that have you beat now (99-JJ) or could out draw you. The about half pot bet maximizes reward to risk. Betting the whole pot has the same benefits as above, but more risk in the worst cases.

Perfect. By betting about half the pot you are betting about half his stack. Doing that is intimidating and if he keeps playing you know where you stand.