ICM says so but do you push here?

[Fatdogs12]

I don't know, ICM says this is a push but I was curious if everyone agrees with this.

***** Hand History for Game 2713696797 *****
100/200 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 15748086) - Thu Sep 15 00:58:24 EDT 2005
Table Table 11761 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: eatraw12 (700)
Seat 3: FlopFiend (405)
Seat 4: Rebecca_5 (1940)
Seat 5: MooseDog6 (2235)
Seat 7: skrilla3388 (765)
Seat 9: WOOLLDOG (990)
Seat 10: mpoejr (965)
WOOLLDOG posts small blind (50)
mpoejr posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to eatraw12 [ Th, Kh ]

[Annulus]

I like the push, be ready to gambool here.

[curtains]

I'm not sure if ICM really says that...

[jmillerdls]

Generally speaking, its much more accurate the fewer players there are, no?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if ICM really says that...

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the implication is that the calling range you have as your default calling range is way too tight, if you're even up to the point of considering calling ranges.

citanul

edit: i'm clearly not responding to curtains, rather, i hit just "quote" to repeat, and felt i should explain more.

[unreal_nh]

i would consider folding this... what level are we playing at here?

[ QUOTE ]
Generally speaking, its much more accurate the fewer players there are, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if ICM really says that...

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the implication is that the calling range you have as your default calling range is way too tight, if you're even up to the point of considering calling ranges.

citanul

edit: i'm clearly not responding to curtains, rather, i hit just "quote" to repeat, and felt i should explain more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe something about this in the faq'd be nice. I really wish people'd consistently say what ranges they're using when they make these statements.

[The Yugoslavian]

Your version of SNA is probably broken then.

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Yugoslav
PS SNA doesn't 'say' anything...it's merely a tool that one must attempt to use properly.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Generally speaking, its much more accurate the fewer players there are, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it is, since the chance of guessing wrong about the calling range of 3 players instead of 6 players is smaller.

[pokerlaw]

i mean, aside from ICM, the results of which are unknown to me, this could be good IF a) you haven't played a hand in awhile; b) the players in the blinds have tight calling ranges; and/or c) you think you have pretty decent FE.

In short, a hand like this really depends on the table situation as a whole I feel...

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if ICM really says that...

[/ QUOTE ]

I 2nd that.

[jeffraider]

This is probably a fold with KQs.

[Nicholasp27]

utg with 6 after you and you still have 7bbs? i'd say it's -ev by icm if u input the correct ranges

u prolly have their calling ranges on tight or aggressive

i've found that, in general, when you have around 5bbs is when you can start pushing first in with any 2 decent hands (top 70% or so when u are button)

each seat away from the blinds that you are should tighten up your pushing range until you get down to 3-4 bbs, at which point it starts becoming any2 from any seat first in the pot

[se2schul]

ICM is just a chip model. It doesn't take position into account, right?

In LP, I push push this all the time. In EP, on most tables, I fold with extreme predjudice.

Pushing 700 with KT into a 150 pot with tons of people to act behind you = -EV. Don't use ICM blindly...
ICM + Brain = +++EV

[Nicholasp27]

i think he's using sngpt, which takes into account position, the opps' calling ranges and how well your particular hand does against those calling ranges when you are called that % of the time...

it's accurate, but it's only as good as its input, which i believe is flawed by putting opps on too tight of a calling range

[fnord_too]

Sometimes I push, sometimes not. Depends on how many hands I have pushed lately. That is close, though, with 7BB UTG. Also, if seats 4 or 5 are loose callers, I muck. You have a lot of FE here if they are not loose callers, since everyone else has a stack that is really hurt (or wiped out) by doubling you up.

[MegaBet]

You should check this again...

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
This is probably a fold with KQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

i shove KQs here. holla

[se2schul]

[ QUOTE ]
i think he's using sngpt, which takes into account position, the opps' calling ranges and how well your particular hand does against those calling ranges when you are called that % of the time...

it's accurate, but it's only as good as its input, which i believe is flawed by putting opps on too tight of a calling range

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the OP says ICM, not SNGPT, but fair enough. Assuming he is using SNGPT which does take positing into account, I'll give my .02$ again.

SNGPT is just an overly-simplistic model that doesn't take all aspects of the game into account such as "when will the blinds increase?", "do I really need to risk my stack to take the blinds this round?", "is the player immediately to my left easy to steal from?", "is the player immediately to his left also easy to steal from?", "Will there be better spots in the near future to get my money in?", and so on.

You say:
[ QUOTE ]
it's accurate, but it's only as good as its input

[/ QUOTE ]
I believe it is accurate, but incomplete as all models are (if they weren't, they wouldn't be models).

I think it is a good guide IF used in conjuction with your brain. If SNGPT moves were as perfect as some believe they are, the $215's would be infested with winning bots that are driven using the SNGPT logic.

Don't take this post as bashing SNGPT... I think it's great. I also think that thinking is also great /images/graemlins/smile.gif

So, despite what SNGPT says, I'd consider folding, but might push depending on all other factors.

[schwza]

if i were to make a gimmick account it be something along the lines of "SNGPT IS NOT AN ORACLE," and i'd use it to scream at people who say ridiculous things like "sngpt says this is a fold" without even mentioning calling ranges.

[AA suited]

7 players left at 100/200?

with that many left, i'd assume people are playing tight since you didn't mention any reads.

I would push with as low as QJo.