2s full of 3s

[Dan Rutter]

$5-10 game pretty loose good game.
UTG limps, I limp with Ad 2c 8c 2d.
The two to the left of me limp, the rest fold to the BB who checks.

The flop comes 3d 2h 3h.

It is checked to me, whats my action, and plan for the hand?

[Mendacious]

Your plan is to lose money. Or so it seems everytime I catch stuff like that.

[Ironman]

I guess you might try the check raise, it helps that you have two of the 2's. But I would fall into check/call mode quickly with callers or check/fold mode with resistance.

Tough spot. Learn if you are behind on the cheap streets.

Dave

[bodie]

The last time I had that hand, the fourth 2 came on the river! And the pot was huge by then with others who had wheels and big pairs.

If only that would happen all of the time!
I would bet or raise on the flop to see where I am, check call after that,depending.

[chaos]

Your A8 low draw is pretty worthless. So you are probably only playing for the high half of the pot. All high hands are devalued when the flop has two low cards. The case 2 is really the only card you are going to like.

I don't think betting the flop is going to get anyone with a reasonable low draw or a 3 to fold. I would check and see which of the limpers behind me might bet.

I would be in check and call mode for the remaining betting rounds (unless I catch a 2). If there gets to be a lot of raising I would probably fold.

[Ribbo]

Checking is not an option, you're allowing people with lows to stay in who would fold otherwise, and people with higher pocket pairs to stay in who would fold otherwise. Bet the flop. What happens after that should help you make the next decision, but just checking here, is terrible.

[DyessMan89]

Check-raising is not an option IMO. It is simply too risky, and more than likley you will end up giving free cards to hands you dont want to be giving free cards to. This is another example why position is important. Lead out on the flop. (although you wont get most low draws out) Check/call is another way to play it. You would play the flop slow, pray for a good turn card to hit, and then play the turn aggressivley. It does save money. I would not use this method, though.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
It is checked to me, whats my action, and plan for the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Dan - The long and the short of it is I think you should generally
• bet the flop,
• bet the turn, and probably
• check/call on the river.

Below is most of my reasoning, if you're interested.

I think you’ll win with quads about 4% (and lose with them 0.4%) and your full house will win unimproved about 29% (and lose 66%). That’s from a simulation against eight non-folding Painless Potters. (The numbers are short of adding up to 100 because I rounded down from 4.2%, 29.2%, and 66.2%). In a game against real opponents, some of those who would have ended up beating you had they stayed until the river will have folded pre-flop or will fold to a flop bet.

Exactly what to do depends on the particular opponents in your particular game. However, in general....

In any nine handed game there’s a very good chance an opponent was dealt a three, about 93%. The fraction 0.93 comes from 1-C(43,32/C(45,32). In a very loose game there’s a good chance that an opponent has not folded a hand with a three before the flop, because threes fit with other wheel cards and many loose opponents like to play any hand with any two wheel cards. In any event, if you bet the flop, nobody who is holding a three will likely fold - and nobody who is holding two over pairs will likely fold either. However somebody holding just one over-pair and no low, or one over-pair plus a very poor low, might fold to a bet.

And there’s a very good chance one or two of your opponents does has an overpair with no low or a poor low. While you're greatly favored over an opponent with one overpair, you don't want someone who would have folded to a bet getting a free ride and ending up beating you.

Therefore, if you plan to continue playing after this flop, I think you have to bet to protect your hand against an overpair. In other words, you bet, hoping to knock out an opponent with one overpair. In addition, your bet charges the lows for their draws.

And then, once you do that, you’re going to be stuck in the pot. If you check the river, someone might
• (1) bet a three with an ace kicker,
• (2) bluff, or
• (3) bet a low, if low comes in.
Therefore I think you should call a bet after you check with your underboat on the river, even though someone betting the river could
• (4) have a better high hand than you.

I try to avoid getting in this position, where you end up with what I call an underboat (a full house where your pair is lower than the pair on the board) - but there’s really no way to avoid this one. You certainly should play that starting hand - and when you do, some of the time you’ll flop a full house - and then, in general, I think you bet the flop, rather than check or fold.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Mendacious]

[ QUOTE ]
I try to avoid getting in this position, where you end up with what I call an underboat (a full house where your pair is lower than the pair on the board) - but there’s really no way to avoid this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, yes there is, its called checking and folding if there is any action.

I look at this flop and hand (as I do with most hands) and factor into my decision the propensity of a hand to yield, a)a small profit, b) a HUGE profit and c) a HUGE loss and d) a fold with money invested in the pot.

In my mind the order of likelihood of these things happening if you bet are:

a)Very small profit or split pot, 40%
d Surrender 30%
d)Huge loss 20% and
b)Huge profit 10%

You can rank them for yourselves, but to me those probabilities tell me not to lead out. If a small pot falls to me fine.

But I think you have to look at this as a flop that missed you and move on.

Probably this is overly pessimistic for Limit, but it is definately how I view the hand in PL, where at anytime if anybody decides to make a decent sized bet you have to fold.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
But I think you have to look at this as a flop that missed you and move on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mendacious - Well... You have a very good point. This is not exactly the flop you wanted.

It's the "move on" part that sticks in my craw. I don't think I should be quite ready to concede at most limit tables at which I play.

At some other limit tables, I think you're probably right. (At pot limit tables I defer to your wisdom and experience).

I'd opt for "move on" with a flopped middle straight and nothing else going for the hand... but a flopped full house at a limit table?...

It's for sure you're not a cinch with this flopped full house, but a full house, even the worst possible, does beat an awful lot of hands at the river.

Buzz

[Mendacious]

In full ring Limit 08 chances are very good that both 3s are in people's hands. So you may have to dodge 18 outs, twice, not to mention the low outs which will start betting into you, and you'll never know what they have because any low card is a natural holding for a guy with a 3. I don't like putting myself in that position where EVERY card is a scare card.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
xIn full ring Limit 08 chances are very good that both 3s are in people's hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mendacious - Both threes? I think you're right. Let's see, for a nine player L.A. area game:

1*C(43,30)/C(45,32) = 0.5010

Yeah, you're right. About half the time both threes will have been dealt to your opponents in a nine player game. But will everybody who was dealt a three see the flop? And then will everybody who was dealt a three make a full house?

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like putting myself in that position where EVERY card is a scare card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to agree with you. I don't like it either. But, and I don't mean to be stubborn, I don't like folding it either, although I have to admit you've made a better case for folding it than I've made for playing it. I guess for me it depends on how many people are still in the hand, who they are, how they act, and what they do. (But I can see that's all very vague).

Anyhow, thanks for your input and getting me to think about it.

Buzz