AQo lvl3 deep stacked, in position w/ 20bb

[Maulik]

This guy has been bringing in the last four

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Button (t2133)
SB (t1080)
BB (t1547)
UTG (t2415)
MP1 (t880)
Hero (t965)
CO (t980)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="red">UTG raises to t150</font>, Hero?

The villian has brought in the last 4! hands for a raise. calling and seeing a flop here is a terrible, i'll miss, he's going to lead the flop and i've wasted 3bb.

If I push here I'm scooping t225 with FE, or likely running the board against any 2 broadway and likely a hand I'm dominating.

The reason I'm not sure what to do here is because of Jman's 4th place in the 109 after pushing w/ his AQo. In my spot I beleive I have too strong of a hand to muck against his marginal holdings unfortunately, I have yet to see his response to a re-raise pf as no one has challenged him.

[bluefeet]

FWIW, I do push. Calling, blah (for more reasons than the obvious). You are RIGHT on that line IMO. A hand riding the wrong side of the "fold" edge (I think I could fold AJo here)...blinds leaning slightly to the "I don't have to have this pot" side. But yeah, with t225 now up for grabs, I think you have to gamble here...keeping ahead of the next set of blinds/possible blind increase.

[Sykes]

Hero folds and it's not even close.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero folds and it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

CRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAP - I honestly thought the BB was 150 (did I mention I'm tired?). /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Too early, not desperate enough. You have a full orbit+.5 to find a better situation.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero folds and it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

CRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAP - I honestly thought the BB was 150 (did I mention I'm tired?). /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Too early, not desperate enough. You have a full orbit+.5 to find a better situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

sleep is good /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I was reading your post and was like, wtf?? Then I thought you read bb was 150 and then it's an auto-push and hope AQ holds.

[Augster]

I guess I'm not tight enough.

What hands are you guys making a move with here? Calling or pushing. I know the blinds are still small in relation to the stack. Only group 1?

Thanks!

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm not tight enough.

What hands are you guys making a move with here? Calling or pushing. I know the blinds are still small in relation to the stack. Only group 1?

Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

if i pushed here, i don't think its a gamble considering he's opening as many hands as possible and trying to figure out how weak this table is. regardless, i don't need this pot, i'm not desperate so my argument is for picking up this pot uncontested ?

so this is a fold and its not even close nonetheless?

[45suited]

I disagree with the conventional wisdom here. Four pots in a row, you say?

You almost certainly have the better hand. You have some FE. IF he calls you, you're likely a 60-40 favorite. I'm not passing in this spot... the fact that this is the fourth hand in a row that he's raised makes this a push for me. Why pass up a spot where you have some FE and if he's loose enough to call you, you're likely a 60% favorite?

Go with your read. You have the better hand. Push it.

All this talk about passing and outplaying your opponents later can be taken too far. Part of outplaying your opposition is getting a read on them and not being afraid to push in a spot like this. If you push and he calls you with a couple of unders and beats you, you still did the right thing in my book. Nothing wrong with pushing and getting called when you are favored by 3:2, as I think you are here.

[The Yugoslavian]

I think you should push and this is why:

Right now you currently lay claim to .1037% of the prize pool.

If you call and win it will be .1914%, 0% if you lose.

We'll assume the villian calls 100% of the time for now.

.1914win% + 0lose% &gt;= .1037

So you have to win over 54% of the time here if the villian calls *every* time.

AQ vs. any broadway is 58% to win. I think we can put the villiant on *at least* any two broadways. And he *will* fold some of the time.

Generally I will fold this vs. a good player who hasn't been raising a ton b/c he will still likely call almost all of the time but I will only be 50/50 at best or possibly worse. Of course, if I think I have quite a bit of FE then going allin with AQ starts to become a real option here.

However, since the dude has been so active, even though he will call you almost all the time, you can push this for a profit.

http://69.93.50.122/wonderfulgirls/photos/1D3A570DE1ED4476BA949B0526B59318.jpg

Yugoslav

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should push and this is why:

Right now you currently lay claim to .1037% of the prize pool.

If you call and win it will be .1914%, 0% if you lose.

We'll assume the villian calls 100% of the time for now.

.1914win% + 0lose% &gt;= .1037

So you have to win over 54% of the time here if the villian calls *every* time.

AQ vs. any broadway is 58% to win. I think we can put the villiant on *at least* any two broadways. And he *will* fold some of the time.

Generally I will fold this vs. a good player who hasn't been raising a ton b/c he will still likely call almost all of the time but I will only be 50/50 at best or possibly worse. Of course, if I think I have quite a bit of FE then going allin with AQ starts to become a real option here.

However, since the dude has been so active, even though he will call you almost all the time, you can push this for a profit.

http://69.93.50.122/wonderfulgirls/photos/1D3A570DE1ED4476BA949B0526B59318.jpg

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

if you decide to post girls, i suggest you do at least consider my needs. i'm more of a dark haired columbian or italian kind of guy. preference, if you will. **gosh**

[45suited]

So... basically, my post was the same as Yugo's except I included no math and no hot women.

I suck. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
So... basically, my post was the same as Yugo's except I included no math and no hot women.

I suck. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Naw....don't worry 'bout it. I got yo back.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

Yugoslav
<font color="white">Who sorta made a strategy post, /images/graemlins/blush.gif.</font>

[mcpherzen]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should push and this is why:

Right now you currently lay claim to .1037% of the prize pool.

If you call and win it will be .1914%, 0% if you lose.

We'll assume the villian calls 100% of the time for now.

.1914win% + 0lose% &gt;= .1037

So you have to win over 54% of the time here if the villian calls *every* time.

AQ vs. any broadway is 58% to win. I think we can put the villiant on *at least* any two broadways. And he *will* fold some of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

This info is, by and large, irrelevant. You have 4 players left to act behind you, all of whom can break you. There is no guarantee this pot will be played heads-up.

That said, I push here every time, and it's not even close. It appears villian is playing enough hands that you can expect to be way ahead of his holding on average. You'd push AK here right, without a second's thought? Villian hasn't done anything to convince you your AK would be good here but your AQ is in big trouble. Plus, lots of opponents that play like this (open a bunch of hands in a row and get all kinds of chips) shut down the moment they catch any action back at them. I expect all will fold to your push at least 3 in 4 times.

--Z

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should push and this is why:

Right now you currently lay claim to .1037% of the prize pool.

If you call and win it will be .1914%, 0% if you lose.

We'll assume the villian calls 100% of the time for now.

.1914win% + 0lose% &gt;= .1037

So you have to win over 54% of the time here if the villian calls *every* time.

AQ vs. any broadway is 58% to win. I think we can put the villiant on *at least* any two broadways. And he *will* fold some of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

This info is, by and large, irrelevant. You have 4 players left to act behind you, all of whom can break you. There is no guarantee this pot will be played heads-up.


[/ QUOTE ]

WEAK!

Yeah, I should have mentioned that. While I don't have a very precise way of calculating that, I think that 5% or less of the time you will be in a 3way pot here. And I think you will be in a 1 way pot (villian folds) a certain amount of the time anyway. I also didn't get into what will happen when you have over 2k chips and are the leader....but even better things happen then (than if you only have 965 or whatever).

[ QUOTE ]

That said, I push here every time, and it's not even close. It appears villian is playing enough hands that you can expect to be way ahead of his holding on average. You'd push AK here right, without a second's thought? Villian hasn't done anything to convince you your AK would be good here but your AQ is in big trouble. Plus, lots of opponents that play like this (open a bunch of hands in a row and get all kinds of chips) shut down the moment they catch any action back at them. I expect all will fold to your push at least 3 in 4 times.

--Z

[/ QUOTE ]

So how was me demonstrating the math behind the hero being ahead and gaining $EV not helpful (it actually was quite helpful for me, honestly)? Anyway, given the read I think that the villian will fold a decent amount of the time in practice *and* have a larger range than just any two broadways in practice. I agree it shouldn't be very close.

Go drink more heinekens!!!

Yugoslav
PS Maulik, the chick wasn't for you...she was to make me more comfortable posting strategy /images/graemlins/blush.gif.
PPS Btw Zen, the last time you bitched out one of my strategy posts I still think I was right generally...that having an Ax hand is often times better than having QJs b/c there are fewer ace hands for your opponents to call you with. I'd say QJ is close to A4 or something (which is a pretty weak ace frankly)...