KK HU vs. tight slightly agg, Ace on the flop

[SlantNGo]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

Villain is tight, and I don't have a really good feel for his aggressiveness but he's definitely not aggressive enough. The one hand where I got to see his cards went as follows:

He checks in the BB. Bet/Calls AKx flop, then check/calls down turn &amp; river blanks with AJ.

In the game, I folded this, and I'm very unhappy about it. I put his UTG+1 raising range as AA-TT, AK-AQ. Just a hunch, but I don't think he's raising pre-flop with AJ, KQ or 99, so I've left them out to simplify the calculations. I also left out AA and KK.

My rule of thumb is that the probability of having two given unpaired cards vs. the probability of having a given pocket pair is 8:3. Hence, AK-AQ = 2(8) = 16. QQ-TT = 3(3) = 9. So I should not fold.

If I continue here, I should be raising this flop IMO. My read on him is that he would not 3-bet with anything less than AQ here, and most likely, AK. So I believe I should raise the flop and fold to a 3-bet.

Then, I should either bet the turn and take the free showdown or check behind on the turn and call a river bet/bet the river if checked to. I like checking behind on the turn. Given that I think it's 16:9 that I'm behind here, checking the turn thwarts a turn check-raise and also prevents him from ruining my plan for a free showdown by betting the river. So I check the turn, and try to induce a bluff from him if he's behind, and lose the least if I'm behind.

I don't like WA/WB here because I think I'm behind almost twice as often as I'm ahead. However, given the size of the pot, I should still continue so I take what I feel will lose me the least when I'm behind.

[thesharpie]

I don't like a flop raise, he's just going to fold his hands that are way behind and maybe 3 bet those you're way behind. Call the flop and reevaluate on the turn.

I think there's more reason to use a WA/WB line when we're more likely to be behind since a raise has no value at all.

I'd reraise here to hope for a free turn. Heck, against JJ or QQ, it may even be for value. If he three-bets, I don't fold, I just call. Preflop, there are 7.5 small bets in the pot. After his bet, your raise, and his reraise, there are 12.5 small bets in the pot, and it costs you 1 to call. You have two outs to a set, and 10 cards give you a good flush draw to go with it. I would see the turn card given those kinds of odds.

I am not 100% sure it is mathematically +EV to see the turn in that case, but players remember when you raise, then fold to a reraise on the same betting round. This will draw fire towards yourself later. In fact, that is mentioned in SSHE... Folding in a round in which you raised is one of the only things small stakes players pick up on.

[Mathieu]

I think raising is bad if you have to call a 3 bet. OP suggested raising to take advantage of villains's passivity. It's a cheaper way to get to a showdown as you can correctly fold if villain shows more aggression.

But if we still have to call when villain shows more aggression, that "information raise" has little purpose. I don't think getting a free card justifies this raise, since most of the time on the turn you will be only drawing to 2 outs.

[Mathieu]

I like this line. Since villain is not aggressive enough, he is unlikely to bet TT and JJ again on the turn as he might be scared that we are waiting for the turn to raise with our "monster". That leaves QQ as a hand that he may or may not bet.

So if we don't improve on the turn, we can probably fold knowing that we are unlikely to be still ahead. If he checks we may want to check behind and then bet on the river where he will be more likely to call with a weaker hand.

The only problem is how sure are we that he won't bet the turn without an Ace? This line allows us to win more bets when ahead, and possibly lose less when behind. It would suck if we are laying down the best hand too often though.

[SlantNGo]

That's a very good point that I didn't consider. How about calling the flop, raising the turn (dumping to a 3-bet), and checking behind on the river?

This gets us 1 more BB out of QQ-TT (assuming he bet/folds the turn with these hands, 2 BB if he calls the turn) and loses us 1 more SB when we're behind. We check behind on the river because if he calls the river, he probably has us beat.

This opponent would not 3-bet the turn with a hand that we're ahead of IMO. I also do not believe that he would continue to bet QQ-TT on the river if we call the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a flop raise, he's just going to fold his hands that are way behind and maybe 3 bet those you're way behind. Call the flop and reevaluate on the turn.

I think there's more reason to use a WA/WB line when we're more likely to be behind since a raise has no value at all.

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[Mathieu]

Raise the turn?

This raise gives you nothing but protection against a 2 outer with 1 card to come. If this guy is tight, most of the times that he will call you, he will have you beat here.

If he won't bet the river with a QQ or less. Just call the turn and fold the river if bet into. Too risky? Even calling the turn and river is better than raising the turn.

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the turn?

This raise gives you nothing but protection against a 2 outer with 1 card to come. If this guy is tight, most of the times that he will call you, he will have you beat here.

If he won't bet the river with a QQ or less. Just call the turn and fold the river if bet into. Too risky? Even calling the turn and river is better than raising the turn.

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I agree.

[Shillx]

If you raise the turn, you have to bet the river if you are called. That is the bottom line and there is no way around it. While it might not be +EV to bet the river, it is a must since the only reason to raise the turn is for value. If you think you have enough value to raise the turn, you have enough to bet the river in this case. It is different when the villian is likely on a draw, but that isn't the case here.

Raising the turn is clearly wrong in this case. Game theory hates a turn raise, but if you decide to do it, you have to bet the river. It is bad since you give up a 5% chance of winning when 3-bet and you risk folding out a hand that you want to bet again.

Brad

[SlantNGo]

Yea, don't quite recall what I was thinking last night... since calling down wins us the same amount as raising the turn there and guarantees us a showdown. So if I call the flop and turn, I'll be getting 7.5 to 1 on the river, and I think I have to call that. As Mathieu said, if I was sure he wouldn't bet the river with QQ or less I could fold there, but 7.5 to 1 means that I have to &gt;88% sure, and I can't say my read on him is that good. So I think I should have just called down.

[imported_The Vibesman]

I know I can be passive, but I think I just call down. My reasoning is a raise probably doesn't have much value, as he will fold hands you beat and call/reraise with hands you don't. I know you're WB more often than WA, but I still like that sort of line there, as it gets us to showdown while not costing much more (or more at all) than some of the more tricky plays that could A: Backfire if the villain goes passive w/ AQ and just calls down or B: End up getting you to fold before showdown.

Basically I want to get to showdown, and I want to get there as cheaply as possible.

[SlantNGo]

That was my thinking behind raising the flop and putting in exactly 1 bet on either the turn or the river (saves me 0.5 BB compared to calling down). However, that lets QQ-TT get away easy.

[ QUOTE ]
Basically I want to get to showdown, and I want to get there as cheaply as possible.

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