Play a hand with me: JJ/TT/AQo

[DavidC]

Villain's are both TAAs. (17/7 for the first one and 18/9 for the next one)

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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with a hand. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero?

---

10.5 SB in pot, what's our play here if:

A) Hero has JJ?
B) Hero has TT
C) Hero has AQo

[bozlax]

call...call...and, uh, call

[closer2313]

I call with all 3 here.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I call with all 3 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems quite reasonable. With AQo it's a no-brainer.

I'm curious if people see a difference between JJ and TT here, though, and how aggressive you guys are with JJ/TT.

[DavidC]

I'll post the next bit of action at 11-11:30ish.

[istewart]

Yeah my default here is to call all 3. I'd like the 3-bettor to be a bit more aggressive and/or have multiway field before I cap JJ OOP. I don't think I've ever capped TT in a full game outside of a steal/resteal/maniac situation.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah my default here is to call all 3. I'd like the 3-bettor to be a bit more aggressive and/or have multiway field before I cap JJ OOP. I don't think I've ever capped TT in a full game outside of a steal/resteal/maniac situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Joe Small has spoken; I see no need to wait any longer. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

------------------------

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with a hand. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero?

---------

Pot is 12.5 sb, less rake: 12sb?

What's our action here with:

a) JJ
b) TT
c) AQo

(Edit: Not disclosing if we have a spade or not in the AQo)

[Redd]

I'd probably raise JJ or TT and fold AQo, especially if we have no spade.

[istewart]

I think I agree with Redd here but I'm not sure. Having the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif here would be pretty important, I think. Two things are at play here. If MP1 has a big pair, our effective odds are shot (since he's raising) and we're getting around 7:1 with fairly questionable overcards. If he doesn't have a big pair (and calls), he most likely has AK or AQ in which case our outs are dirty/nonexistent/splitting the pot. In this case, raising the flop seems like an attractive move.

With no spade this looks like a flop fold with AQ. With a spade it becomes more interesting.

[Paxosmotic]

It's a flush draw and I'm raising all three.

[chiachu]

id raise TT,JJ and most likely fold AQ

[Shillx]

The flop bettor has a pocket pair here everytime. The question is if he nailed a set or not. AQo is worth a raise here (with a /images/graemlins/spade.gif) since we want MP1 to toss in his AK. We don't know if he will though since he figures to have 6 good outs if UTG+1 didn't make trips. The overpairs are easy raises.

Brad

[Paxosmotic]

What pocket pair bets out into two preflop raises and kills the action? If he has a pocket pair, it's a set and he got stupid.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop bettor has a pocket pair here everytime. The question is if he nailed a set or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well... maybe not.

The UTG guy can figure out our hand range to approx QQ-99, AKs-AQs, AKo. He can put MP on AA-JJ, AK, AQs.

When the play was coming back to him preflop and he called the two bets, he was looking at sometihg like: 2:8.5 or 3:10.5 odds.

I think he can call with a suited ace or T9s, given those odds when it comes back to him.

If he had a hand like A5s spades (giving him a few draws), this would be maybe a good flop bet by him, to get rid of our AQ hands, using the preflop re-raiser as pressure against us.

If he had even just an ace-high flush draw with no straight draws, again, it might be a good bet.

So, if I'm correct that A5s can call two cold back to him after limping UTG, then if the table conditions are right (to make him limp with it in the first place), he could have this hand.

It would be pretty rare, of course.

Also, if he has an A, then that means it's more likely than normal that the re-raiser has KK/QQ rather than AA/AK, meaning that cleaning up the ace-outs is an important thing.

[Shillx]

He does not have A5 suited here. There is just no way any reasonable player has anything other then a pocket pair here. Even calling with something like T9s getting like 9:2 at best is crazy since his flopped draws are collecting little to no value with just 3 players in the pot. You would certainly call getting 4.5:1 if it was a 5 or 6 way pot but not here.

Brad

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
He does not have A5 suited here. There is just no way any reasonable player has anything other then a pocket pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is absurd. Why on earth would a pocket pair that is now either a set or an overpair bet out on this flop with that much preflop aggression shown?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He does not have A5 suited here. There is just no way any reasonable player has anything other then a pocket pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is absurd. Why on earth would a pocket pair that is now either a set or an overpair bet out on this flop with that much preflop aggression shown?

[/ QUOTE ]

His flop bet isn't of much value to us since his hand has already been defined. All non-pair hands have been eliminated by the preflop action. Either that or our read is bad (which happens it really isn't a big deal).

As an aside...what else would a set do on this flop? Pretty much anything he does gives his hand away (for example if he check/calls and then check/raises the turn) so why not lead out? If it will fool people into thinking that he is on a draw then it was a great play.

Brad

[bottomset]

I cap JJ, call the other 2

raise JJ, TT and raise AQo(w/ A /images/graemlins/spade.gif) .. prob fold the others, consider calling AQo w/ Qspade

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
He does not have A5 suited here. There is just no way any reasonable player has anything other then a pocket pair here. Even calling with something like T9s getting like 9:2 at best is crazy since his flopped draws are collecting little to no value with just 3 players in the pot. You would certainly call getting 4.5:1 if it was a 5 or 6 way pot but not here.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

No problem.

Thanks man.

[DavidC]

Alright...

You guys are going to hate me, but I folded at this point. My hand was JJ.

I looked at this kinda like a compound probabilities laydown.

It would be a huge mistake if UTG were betting into us with 99, hoping to get it HU with MP's AK, and MP did actually have AK.

However, the chance that EITHER MP has AA/KK OR that the other guy has a set, is very very good. Good enough that I figure I'm down to two outs maybe 75+% of the time. (This isn't really based on math though... just experience/fear.)

--

Now, you guys recommend a raise line here... I'd like to put some scenarios out here and see how you deal with them, if that's alright.

-----------------

1) Assume we raise, and MP three-bets, UTG calls, we call. We don't have a spade, and we miss the turn.
1a) It's checked to MP, who bets, UTG raises. We?
1b) It's checked to MP, who bets, UTG calls. We?

2) Assume we raise, and MP calls, UTG calls. The turn is a blank.
2a) It's checked to us, we bet, MP calls, UTG raises. We?
2b) It's checked to us, we bet, MP folds, UTG raises. We?
2c) It's checked to us, we bet, MP folds, UTG calls. The river is a blank and it's checked to us, we?
2d) It's checked to us, we bet, MP raises, UTG three-bets. We?
2e) It's checked to us, we bet, MP raises, UTG calls. We?

------

Here's my lines:
1a) fold
1b) call?

2a) fold
2b) call
2c) bet/call
2d) fold
2e) fold

Holy crap this looks weak!

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are going to hate me, but I folded at this point. My hand was JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
just ... fear.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Holy crap this looks weak!

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
DavidC
Supreme Nit

[/ QUOTE ]

PF3bettor:
AQ - 16 hands
AK - 16 hands
99 - 6 hands
TT - 6 hands
JJ - 1 hand
QQ - 6 hands
KK - 6 hands
AA - 6 hands

18 we lose to, 44 we beat, and 1 we split.

Donkbettor (I'll even assume he has a PP):
22 - 3 hands
33 - 3 hands
44 - 6 hands
55 - 6 hands
66 - 3 hands
77 - 6 hands
88 - 6 hands
99 - 6 hands
TT - 6 hands

Beating 30 hands, losing to 18.

Folding here is TERRIBLE.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
PF3bettor:
AQ - 16 hands
AK - 16 hands
99 - 6 hands
TT - 6 hands
JJ - 1 hand
QQ - 6 hands
KK - 6 hands
AA - 6 hands

18 we lose to, 44 we beat, and 1 we split.

Donkbettor (I'll even assume he has a PP):
22 - 3 hands
33 - 3 hands
44 - 6 hands
55 - 6 hands
66 - 3 hands
77 - 6 hands
88 - 6 hands
99 - 6 hands
TT - 6 hands

Beating 30 hands, losing to 18.

Folding here is TERRIBLE.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif That good, eh? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Mind if I adjust this a bit:

PF3bettor:
AQs - 4 hands
AK - 16 hands
TT - 6 hands
JJ - 1 hand
QQ - 6 hands
KK - 6 hands
AA - 6 hands

(win: 26 lose: 18 split: 1)

-------

I just want to mention, I ran your #'s through Pokerstove, and it gave me a 38% chance... pretty good (definitely not a fold!).

Taking away donkbettor's TT (since he'd have raised), and using my trimmed down version of the PFRR's hand, you're still at 32%.

Edit: The scenarios that I've got at the quiz (what to do if we continue by raising) are all nightmares... for example, I haven't asked you guys what to do if we raise, they call, then we bet and they fold... because we don't really have a choice. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Re-Edit: I think I basically have to learn to appreciate how large of a portion of the deck AK takes up in a good raiser's hands. It's going to get me into trouble if I constantly give people credit for having aces.

[AdamL]

An 18/9 is not 3-betting an UTG+2 TAG raiser with AQs.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
An 18/9 is not 3-betting an UTG+2 TAG raiser with AQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah... I'm sure he would, as long as the TAA raiser is 20/10ish kinda tag, which I think I am.

[AdamL]

We'll have to chat about this then. Here are my current SOP's:

In this spot particularly, you have a tight limper and a tight raiser both in early position. I would fold AQs here.

I call with AQs in places where I think someone might be iso-raising, or they just have a decently wide range of raising hands from that particular position.

I 3-bet in counter-steal situations, because I'm really confident at that point I have the best hand.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
We'll have to chat about this then. Here are my current SOP's:

In this spot particularly, you have a tight limper and a tight raiser both in early position. I would fold AQs here.

I call with AQs in places where I think someone might be iso-raising, or they just have a decently wide range of raising hands from that particular position.

I 3-bet in counter-steal situations, because I'm really confident at that point I have the best hand.



[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that there will sometimes be situations where you have weak-tight tags to your right who will be willing to fold pocket pairs and such.

(But with your luck it'll only be when the donk has 33 and you have KK... /images/graemlins/smile.gif ).

Edit: But that still wouldn't make it right... /images/graemlins/frown.gif