My weekly "LOCK" bet

[Indiana]

Colts/Jags under 46. Its good as gold. The Colts are slow starters. The Jags cannot convert on offense. I watched the Comcast tapes of both teams and have studied the tapes. Did anyone notice how many field goals the Jags were forced to attempt after failing in good position to score a TD?

Lock it in,

Indy

[WackityWhiz]

I was with ya on the colts last week, but I think this one is gonna be over. (38 - double digits) is my prediction

Indy - Appreciate the pick and analysis but there's one problem with your thinking here: a "lock" doesn't, and shouldn't, need to come weekly or by any measure of time. The only thing that matters is the strength of the game. If you go 5 weeks without a lock, that's fine. If there are 2-3 lock games in the same week, that's fine too. This lock of the week business is straight out of a 1-900 ad.

Also, doesn't this:

[ QUOTE ]
The Jags cannot convert on offense. I watched the Comcast tapes of both teams and have studied the tapes. Did anyone notice how many field goals the Jags were forced to attempt after failing in good position to score a TD?

[/ QUOTE ]

...suggest they may be due to convert more TDs in the red zone this time around? Is it not possible for Leftwich/Taylor/Smith etc. to learn from their mistakes in week 1? Isn't one week also not enough to judge a team by?

Anyway, at least I'm a fan of playing unders on some high totals.

[Losing all]

Easy over. aLLiN!!!

[sekrah]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy over. aLLiN!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't say that.. Vegas is notorious for setting traps like this.

The over is screaming to be bet right here which doesn't smell right.. OP might be onto something.

Considering the scores of their matchups last year were 24-17 (41) and 27-24 (51), 46 seems just about right. By the standard of one game, Jax' O seems improved and Indy's D also looks improved -- these cancel each other out.

I'm a believer in going under on big totals but this one doesn't really jump out at me.

[Easy E]

However, a Shoe-In definately does! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[mrbaseball]

And you shouldn't have more than 4 or 5 Games of the Year per month or more than a couple Games of the Century per season.

I'm hoping Big Al's week 1 shoo-in analysis applies to week 2 since Denver is my biggest play thus far.

[Indiana]

Manning burns time from the clock like Nasa burns cash...He will take his time and go slow. I also like the first half under 23. Look, all of you guys have your opinions, but did anybody watch the Jags game last week? I did and this is why I am betting the under. They had a horrific time trying to convert and ended up going for field goals most of the time. They also burned lots of time off the clock in the process.

Just wait and see,

Indy

[ QUOTE ]
They had a horrific time trying to convert and ended up going for field goals most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if Jack Del Rio by some freak accident recognized this too and is now spending much of the week practicing red zone plays with the first team? Does it mean anything that the offense actually put themselves in position to score 6 touchdowns? I'm not saying your prediction won't be correct but this line of reasoning is pretty weak.

[Easy E]

If he starts posting here, I'm getting you... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[Easy E]

Indiana says so...

[Indiana]

There are lots of "what ifs" here. Look, the morning tells the day. Yah they may make some minor adjustments from week to week but these are human beings that we are talking about, not robots. Also, don't expect much of a hometown rumble Sunday. Our local crowd is a fairweather football fan group. Remember, this is a racecar town, its nothing like Green Bay or Philly. Nobody will be getting pumped up or anything so there's really no crowd factor to drive up the score. Is there anything more boring than watching the Jags play the Colts here in Indy? I'd rather listen to my sinuses drain.

Indy

I like the under as well

[Sadat X]

[ QUOTE ]
Lock it in

[/ QUOTE ]

You really need a large prop if you want any kind of credibility...

[Indiana]

A large "prop?"

Indy

[Easy E]

Throwing out large risky proposition bets adds to a capper's reputation? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Or was this a backhanded slap?

[Sadat X]

[ QUOTE ]
Throwing out large risky proposition bets adds to a capper's reputation?

Or was this a backhanded slap?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, no, no, nothing like that. I was referring to a large, physical lead pipe or Master lock that the hanicapper could hold up as he makes his "lock of the week" pick, ala crappy TV prognosticators. You guys aren't big Simpsons fans I take it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[NajdorfDefense]

I like the Under, but I like Jax +9-9.5 even more. That line looks way off, considering Jax has beaten them 2 of last 4, and Indy outscores them by an average of 2 pts per game.

Naj

I was with you all the way.

In today's . . . game . . . many factors . . . must be . . . considered . . . the wind . . .

[joeski19]

[ QUOTE ]
I was with you all the way.

In today's . . . game . . . many factors . . . must be . . . considered . . . the wind . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on hurry up! Don't you know this is costing me money?!?! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Indiana]

Another Lock: Patriots -3. No way they dont cover this.

Indy

[DropGems]

Patties gonna chew up NC!

[Easy E]

Thanks for clarifying

[Indiana]

Anybody see the first drive? Like I said, bet the under. They burn time off the clock and turn it over....Now watch the sorry azz jags have to try for a field goal.

Indy

[Indiana]

yah, they did go for a field goal and missed....into 2nd QT and score is still 0-0. Half time under is now pretty much covered and game under looking sweet. I would now lay on the 2nd half over if you can get it.

Indy

[Indiana]

The second half over is 22 at sportsbook.com. Jump on it now!!!!!

Indy

[TheRonin]

None shall ever question you againt

[Indiana]

Well I got the first half and game under, missed the 2nd half over. Wasn't that sure about the 2nd half bet there but I didn't lay big $ on it. Did however made huge $ on the under bets.

GL,

Indy