Bottom set on monotone flop

[Homer]

UB 5/10. First lap at this table, seems fairly typical.

I'm dealt 22 on the button. Folded around to poster in CO, who checks. I call, SB calls and four of us see the flop.

Flop - 2s As Ks

BB bets, poster and I call.

Turn - Jc (this hand just keeps getting better)

BB bets, only I call.

River - 4c

BB checks, I bet, BB calls.

I take it down. BB had Qd3s for...a Queen.

-- Homer

[Homer]

I think I should have raised the turn after the poster folded and it got to be heads-up. If BB is drawing I charge him the maximum to do so by raising. If he has a flush or straight he will likely reraise in which case I can fold if I don't fill on the river. Then again, he did pay me off with a Queen on the river after I only called the turn! /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

-- Homer

[J.R.]

Fold preflop. I'd raise the flop.

[Ulysses]

I'd raise the flop, and failing that, raise the turn.

[Robk]

Would you really fold a set for one river bet in a heads up pot? I don't think I've ever done that before (at least not online). I agree that you should have raised on the turn. In addition to the times he is drawing, you will get 3 BB when he has a weaker made hand than yours, which seems likely given the board texture. There are many scare cards that will induce him to check the river, thus only allowing you to only collect 2 if you wait till the river.

[Homer]

Against this particular opponent, a three-bet from out of position means that he has a flush or straight, I am nearly 100% certain. Against almost all opponents I would not fold a set on the river for one bet, but against this opponent I would.

-- Homer

p.s. - If you posted the same hand I'd probably say that you would be crazy to fold a set on the river for a single bet heads-up as well! /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

[Homer]

Ulysses/JR, why raise the flop instead of the turn? If my opponent is likely to be betting a club draw (or a weaker made hand for that matter), then aren't I better off waiting until the turn to pop him? I should think that this would be even better due to the third player in the hand between us, who could also be on a club draw or have a worse made hand.

-- Homer

[bernie]

havent seen your comments yet...

i wouldve raised the flop. capped if the middle guy stayed in.

nice bet on the end

b

[bernie]

on a scary board like this, i want to find out soon if im behind or drawing. id much rather be 3 bet on the flop here than on the turn. unless this player is likely to jam a draw on the flop. THEN i may wait til the turn. since the info would be better gained.

but of course, you could fold to the bet on the river if you miss after being 3 bet. *player dependent

you could play it both ways. my preference is the flop

b

[elysium]

hi holm
played terribly. i was about to say that you've improved as of late, but then you post this thing. holmer, if anything you must raise out the less than J of suit. if the board fours it, some calling station will call you down with a lousy T or 9 and even less of suit. you must get rid of them by raising at every opportunity. but here, you should also raise to get more money in the pot with the likely best hand. no matter how much you try to beat this game, you never will unless you develop the ability to assess when you're in the lead and also when you must protect your hand. this post is terrible. your losing money here. you must bet and raise with your set holm.

[Homer]

But at least I value bet the river. Come on elysium. Give me some mad props. Where's the love man.

-- Homer

[CrackerZack]

Homer,
Why just the calls? I read the forums alot and feel like you would normally be telling the poster to throw a raise in there. I would probably be inclined to raise the flop but the turn is good too. This certainly isn't a situation where you are either way ahead or way behind and you don't want any singletons(even the 3) to draw cheaply. Getting paid off by Q high does help you make the missed raise back, and probably more than I would've made on this hand.

[elysium]

hi holm
just read the posts and see that you'd consider folding if reraised. holmer, will you forget about folding? you cannot fold your set heads up under any circumstance when the pot is this large. where do you get these ideas holm? i believe you when you say that you'd fold, and i'm glad your honest. your honesty enables us to stop the leak. but you must know that you'll never fold trips again when heads up in a huge pot. my gosh holmer, you'd almost have to call with two lower pair just to stop future bluffs. one thing mason tells everyone until he is blue in the face is to make the tough calls to prevent the other players from taking shots only at you. there is a lot of merit to that philosophy. it means calling often, even when we know we're beaten. now, of course that is not saying to call every time, but in this situation holm, you have other good reasons to call even if you know you're beaten. you cannot fold here. i don't know if i'm getting through, but believe me, folding is not an option here, even when the board fours on you.


i just read your answer holm. you cannot fold even if you're positive about your read. your opponent knows as well as you do that you consider him tight. these opponents are more likely to bluff you holmer than even an aggressive.

[Homer]

I think I should have clearly raised the turn. I don't like raising the flop at all, even though doing so is at worst neutral EV (if I am behind to a flush). This is because I can make more by waiting until the turn to raise if a safe card comes. If the poster had called the turn bet I would have raised for sure. But for some reason once it got heads-up I decided that I might be able to get my remaining opponent to bluff a missed draw into me on the river because he overplayed his hands prior to being met with aggression. Despite this possibility, I should have raised the turn and made him pay to draw with a bare spade. This way I get the same two bets out of him when he is drawing but also might get him to call a bet on the river with a weak made hand that I beat. Then again, by raising the turn I open myself up to being three-bet by a flush or straight, and having to pay off one more on the river if I don't fill (depending on my opponent...in this case I might not pay it off). So I could also lose two more bets than by just calling the turn. This makes the argument for raising the turn less clear cut.

It would be interesting if someone would list the pros and cons of raising the flop versus raising the turn, and pros and cons of raising the turn versus calling the turn.

-- Homer

[Homer]

you're wrong elysium. if this opponent three-bets me out of position heads-up with this board he has me beat. he has either a straight or flush. i know this opponent. if i am sure i am sure - calling will do me no good if i don't fill on the river. i would not do this against all opponents obviously.

[Bob T.]

Hi Homer, this is one of those way ahead, way behind situations, where you also have a draw. I kind of think that you played this one fine. If your opponent is on a flush draw, you aren't getting rid of him by betting. If he has a flush, he isn't going to get rid of you be betting. So it kind of comes down to value betting, and or value calling. If your opponent is on top pair, or two pair, and is betting to protect himself from giving free cards to a flush draw, how will you make more money, calling, or raising the turn. I think that if you raise, you lose the possibility of winning another bet on the river. In the situation where he has the flush, and you raise, he three bets, and now you made it alot more expensive for you to get to the river. On the other hand, if he is drawing, and you raise, you will make more, unless he will continue to bet after he missed on the river.

If you fill up on the river, and he has the flush, I think that then you will probably make the same by waiting until the river.

I don't have a real problem with you playing this hand call, call, call.

[SoBeDude]

Isn't this a raise or fold situation preflop homey? Like our other thread regarding 22 vs Ax headsup.

All you have a poster in the cutoff who just raps his knuckles. Can't put him on a big hand, very unlikely a pair and probably just two "average" cards.

Raise and you can win 2.5 blinds. I think that alone makes the raise worth it. Add also you probably have the best hand here. Add also with another player (CO) in the pot, it looks less like a steal so the blinds aren't as likely to try to defend with marginal hands. I'd say they'll fold most of the time here.

Then all you have is a late position poster who is behind and out of position to you, if he calls.

You don't have the pot odds to go for the set here so I think calling and letting the SB in cheap and the BB in free is a significant mistake.

Glad you won the hand /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

-Scott

P.S. I want a mooning icon!!