Worst runs starting at a new level...

[ace_in_the_hole]

I am a 14% ROI winner over 2500 22's and 33's, I have played 100 55's at -10% ROI. I know it is a super samll sample, but out of curiousity have any of you hit a bad streak when you moved up to the 55's? I know it is possible that I can't beat these games but I am going to play at least 500 before I start to think that. Hearing about other people's experiences helps me out. Thanks.

[ace_in_the_hole]

BTW I ahve twice as many 3rds as 1sts so I know that this is the main problem (getting VERY VERY unlucky ITM) but I still am just curious as to how long some people's initial downstreaks continued before they got into the black. Thanks.

[Sponger15SB]

I was down $500 over my first 150 $33s a long while back.

Btw, as I have said before, you are entirely too obsessed with your bb/100, ROI, stats, etc.

[durron597]

Read this (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1765434&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1)

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
I am a 14% ROI winner over 2500 22's and 33's, I have played 100 55's at -10% ROI. I know it is a super samll sample, but out of curiousity have any of you hit a bad streak when you moved up to the 55's? I know it is possible that I can't beat these games but I am going to play at least 500 before I start to think that. Hearing about other people's experiences helps me out. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I moved up to the 33s, I started on a 200 tourney break-even streak. Not the worst, but it was frustrating.

[ace_in_the_hole]

[ QUOTE ]
I was down $500 over my first 150 $33s a long while back.

Btw, as I have said before, you are entirely too obsessed with your bb/100, ROI, stats, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not trying to sound rude, but everytime I make a post of this nature, you are there to tell me I am too concerned with stats. I appreciate the opinion, but from now on just know that I have disregarded that part of your advice and am going to keep making these posts because they help me mentally. But thank you for pointing that out for me again. Again, i am not trying to be rude just saving you some typing next week when you see me make another one of these posts.

Thanks for the link durron. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Irieguy]

I tried moving up to the $109s 4 or 5 times before it finally "stuck."

I know these questions will never go away, but really there are only two things you can do to handle variance:

1. Understand it.
2. Have enough money.

Almost nobody does either of these two things, which is why there is so much discussion about variance.

Irieguy

[ace_in_the_hole]

[ QUOTE ]
I tried moving up to the $109s 4 or 5 times before it finally "stuck."

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, that is exactly what i was lookign for. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I keep ahving to drop down and wonder if I am doomed to have my roll stay between 2500 and 3500 forever, but alas, after reading your post that Durron linked I am more at peace than I ahve been in days. Thanks. Hopefully next month i will be posting my winning stats over 600 55's. I guess time will only tell.

P.S. I love the part about supernatural ability to call out your opponents 2 outer. I almost fell out fo my chair laughing. Cause it is oh so true. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[axeshigh]

If you have 'only' 14% ROI at the 22s and 33s, it will be lower (I'd estimate something like 0-10%) at the 55s, unless you dramatically improve, so your variance will be huge. Maybe you should just stick out to the lower levels if you think you will have trouble handling the variance.

[ace_in_the_hole]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have 'only' 14% ROI at the 22s and 33s, it will be lower (I'd estimate something like 0-10%) at the 55s, unless you dramatically improve, so your variance will be huge. Maybe you should just stick out to the lower levels if you think you will have trouble handling the variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well after 2000 I was at 22% so who knows what my true rate is. My goal for my first 1,000 at the 55's is 12%. I think this is attainable once the 2 outers stop hitting for all my chips.

[The Don]

A lot of moving up has to do with luck. The only time I didn't have great luck when I moved up was the 33s but it didn't matter because the extra 50% didn't faze me at all.

[Slim Pickens]

I bounced off the 22's once and 33's once before sticking at the 33's. I have yet to collect the bankroll for a serious shot at the 55's, but I'm assuming it will take a few tries there as well.

[inyaface]

I tried moving up to the 215's with a medicore bankroll. I droped 2k pretty quickly over like 50 sngs and had to move back down to the 109's where I was more then comfortable. Meh variance sucks.

It has been my experience that, for whatever reason, something happens to you sub-consiously when moving up a level, and you either play too tight, too lose, or just play a bad game.

This may not happen to everyone, but it happens to me, and it sucks. Varience may have played a role as well, but I think it is USUALLY caused by your game quality going down (temporarily). I refer to this as the "adjustment phase", as I have seen it happen far too often to simply blame varience. Of course, this is only a temporary phase, you will eventually get back to your game.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[stillbr]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have 'only' 14% ROI at the 22s and 33s, it will be lower (I'd estimate something like 0-10%) at the 55s, unless you dramatically improve, so your variance will be huge. Maybe you should just stick out to the lower levels if you think you will have trouble handling the variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
I was down $500 over my first 150 $33s a long while back.

Btw, as I have said before, you are entirely too obsessed with your bb/100, ROI, stats, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was down a cool $1k over my first 250 $30s. Surprinsgly being even-keel or is it even-peel or whatever, someone tell me is key.

take a break if you can't handle it, read through your HHs, etc.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I tried moving up to the $109s 4 or 5 times before it finally "stuck."

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, that is exactly what i was lookign for. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I keep ahving to drop down and wonder if I am doomed to have my roll stay between 2500 and 3500 forever, but alas, after reading your post that Durron linked I am more at peace than I ahve been in days. Thanks. Hopefully next month i will be posting my winning stats over 600 55's. I guess time will only tell.

P.S. I love the part about supernatural ability to call out your opponents 2 outer. I almost fell out fo my chair laughing. Cause it is oh so true. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that is the wrong attitude. I know it is comforting to have people tell you that it is just a blip and you will soon beat the new level.

But neither you or him know if you are able to beat the new level. Assuming you will because you have beaten other limits is a fallacy.

This is of course why we should have more than 100 tourneys at a level before starting to think about these things.

[The Yugoslavian]

Be patient. Play the right way. AND....

http://69.93.50.122/wonderfulgirls/photos/2F0D282D3BB311D4855200062950B7A0.jpg

Yugoslav

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Be patient. Play the right way. AND....

http://69.93.50.122/wonderfulgirls/photos/2F0D282D3BB311D4855200062950B7A0.jpg

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

Best one yet /images/graemlins/blush.gif