Blind defense: Flopped overcards on a low board

[cartman]

Assume villain is 40/15, has at least average aggression, att to steal blinds of 32% and is almost guaranteed to bet the flop and the turn heads up after raising preflop. He will almost never fold prior to the river card after raising preflop regardless of Hero's actions and will virtually always showdown any pair or any Ace. He is capable of although but by no means guaranteed to raise the flop or the turn with Ace high or a draw as well as with his pair or better hands.

PREFLOP:
Villain open-raises in the CO and only Hero calls in the BB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

FLOP: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero <font color="blue">?</font>



Does anyone fold on the flop here?

If you call intending to fold unimproved on the turn, what is your line if you make a pair on the turn?


Thanks,
Cartman

[marsvolta619]

So he steals a lot... depending on what you've done in the past, you can fold, raise, or call and raise the turn no matter what

[Stack]

If he autobets the turn most of the time, then I call since I can c/r if I hit. If he takes a lot of free cards on the turn with his A high, then I think I fold on the flop.

[cartman]

What if he will rarely fold to a turn donkbet. Would you guys consider calling and then just leading out if you turn a pair?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Lmn55d]

My thinking is the opposite of this. I will only peel here with JT (overs w/ no draw) if he checks the turn often. Then I have two chances to hit my 6 outs. Since most opponents autobet the turn I fold this flop.

[cartman]

This is my approach as well. What if you have the same hand except for you were the open-raiser in the CO with JT and the BB leads into you heads up on this flop?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Kyle]

Your getting 4.5:1 on this flop call but given your description of the villian I peel one off here. I think your getting implied odds to make a pair since he will showdown so many hands. Also if I make a pair on the turn I lead. Then bet the river assuming an ace doesnt come which I check call.

Villian may fold to a turn check raise which you dont want cause he will showdown so many hands. The weak lead may also induce a raise from a weaker hand.

[redbeard]

i responded in a post similar to this regarding two overcards with no draw and hero was pfr and was led into on the flop. in these situations (unless my opponent is a known psychopath and i have showdown value) i fold my over cards. i think i'm the only human being on earth that does so. i'll reference the jason pohl article, "the overcard quandary" found in pokerpages.com as my justification for doing so. i'm sure, however, i'll be cruixified here for advocating such a thing.

[Surfbullet]

Getting 4.5:1 (less with rake) we do not have odds to draw to our overcards.

If we expect to get 2BB out of our opponent in implied odds we can call, however, I do not believe this to be the case. Villain my go to showdown relentlessly with A-hi or better, but there will be times when he has KJ and we are outkicked or he rivers a higher pair, or has a higher pocket, or calls the turn but folds the river because another scare card hit...etc... that I think we will likely only get 1BB in implied odds. With that we still aren't breakeven on our call so I think this is an easy fold.

edit: long story short, I agree with you redbeard.

Surf

[Lmn55d]

I'd only call if I expected him to give me a free river (if you frequently call flop bets and raise the turn this might hapeen somewhat frequently).

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd only call if I expected him to give me a free river (if you frequently call flop bets and raise the turn this might hapeen somewhat frequently).

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think that you should call if he almost never gives a free card and, as assumed in OP, he shows down A high most of the time.

Your approch risks one sb to potentially win ~3.25BB, mine risks one sb to potentially win 5.25BB.

Besides, almost noone gives enough free turns in this situation to make a call profitable.

[aslowjoe]

[ QUOTE ]
edit: long story short, I agree with you redbeard

[/ QUOTE ]

With JT I will go with rest. Anyting better I will peel one.
If I was the pfr in the CO I would peel one. I have postion. Very often the donkbetter checks to you on the turn. You start folding too much to a donk bet they smell blood.

The donk bet I have trouble with is I raise with A9. The BB calls the flop K84. He donk bets me, now I am not quite sure what to do. I usually fold, is that correct?

I play it the same as you, based on the same article. The math was convincing....

Hopefully he was right.

Margon

I this situation, you might have to fold the hand. Even though its a good possibility villan didnt hit a part of the flop and might be trying to steal the pot, your high card is a Jack and you didnt hit the flop at all. Its better to cut your losses right there and prepare for the next hand then to take a chance.

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
edit: long story short, I agree with you redbeard

[/ QUOTE ]

With JT I will go with rest. Anyting better I will peel one.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is QT better than JT, besides being slightly less oft dominated? we still have no showdown value.

Surf