ErichS
09-14-2005, 05:05 PM
I'm a bit surprised that I've not been able to find any threads on this sport. I've come to be an avid fan over the past year or so, and although I'm just getting into handicapping, it seems to be a handicappers dream.
1) It's an individual sport in which stylistic match ups are huge. Setting the line for a fight should be far less "scientific" than it is in a sport like football.
2) Although I'm just starting to get into sports betting more seriously, I have made money over the years on boxing based on a simple principle that translates here as well. Exploit the public ignorance of unpublicized, world class fighter when he fights a big name. e.g. if memory serves, Forrest was 7-1 (!!) against mosely the first time. Hopkins was a 3-1 dog vs. Felix. Although it didn't work out, Klit at 4-1 vs. Lewis was clearly a great bet. Problem is that these fights don't come around too often. But in MMA, top fighters fight more often and they fight more competitive matches and I think these opportunities should come up more often than in boxing, especially as mma fighers become bigger celebs.
3) Past fights are easily accessible through file sharing. If you wanted to, for example, see several of Jeremy Horn's fights before UFC 54, you could easily do so.
In a nutshell, I think the lines are largely dictated by the loose impressions of casual fans with little info on which to base their decisions, yet this is a sport that can reward knowledgeable and careful analysis.
The only trick is finding lines with reasonable juice. Whoever hosts the UFC in Vegas will post them. Online is a bit rougher. For example, at betonfighting.com
DAN HARDY -700
SAMI BERIK +400
I think some places, like bodog, are starting to do the UFC. Anyone know where you can get reasonable bets in on Pride and smaller shows?
1) It's an individual sport in which stylistic match ups are huge. Setting the line for a fight should be far less "scientific" than it is in a sport like football.
2) Although I'm just starting to get into sports betting more seriously, I have made money over the years on boxing based on a simple principle that translates here as well. Exploit the public ignorance of unpublicized, world class fighter when he fights a big name. e.g. if memory serves, Forrest was 7-1 (!!) against mosely the first time. Hopkins was a 3-1 dog vs. Felix. Although it didn't work out, Klit at 4-1 vs. Lewis was clearly a great bet. Problem is that these fights don't come around too often. But in MMA, top fighters fight more often and they fight more competitive matches and I think these opportunities should come up more often than in boxing, especially as mma fighers become bigger celebs.
3) Past fights are easily accessible through file sharing. If you wanted to, for example, see several of Jeremy Horn's fights before UFC 54, you could easily do so.
In a nutshell, I think the lines are largely dictated by the loose impressions of casual fans with little info on which to base their decisions, yet this is a sport that can reward knowledgeable and careful analysis.
The only trick is finding lines with reasonable juice. Whoever hosts the UFC in Vegas will post them. Online is a bit rougher. For example, at betonfighting.com
DAN HARDY -700
SAMI BERIK +400
I think some places, like bodog, are starting to do the UFC. Anyone know where you can get reasonable bets in on Pride and smaller shows?