New to 10/20 (6 max)...a QTs hand OOP

[sweetjazz]

UTG is 42/1/0.8 with a WTSD of 55%. He was pretty loose and predictable, and had been running good over the approximately 100 hands I had on him. Button is relatively unknown, but he seems loose. I don't have a read on his aggression. I'm having trouble with the converter, so I'll post it in my own words. This hand might not be too exciting, but I think this kind of situation is one I really need to understand well to succeed at 10/20.

UTG calls, I raise in the CO with Q /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif. Button cold calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop is 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Checked to me, I bet, button calls, BB and UTG fold.

Turn is 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I bet, button raises...

What's my plan for the rest of the hand?

I feel pretty comfortable how I would play it at 5/10, but I am not sure if this is a hand I should be playing differently (or at least thinking about differently) at 10/20.

[sthief09]

call down. what's the question?

[sweetjazz]

I am wondering if bet/call or bet/fold is a better line if the river blanks than check/call.

How likely is it that villain is semibluff raising with a worse one pair hand or something like A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif x /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and will check behind the river UI, but call if I donk?

As the hand played out, the river was the 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

This makes the board Td 7d 5c 4s 3h.

What I haven't yet figured out is how often an unknown will call a river bet with a hand I beat if I lead out, but check behind if I check; how often will a better hand raise the river (obviously a 6 will raise here; will two pair hands raise here; AT or KT; what about worse hands bluff raising, e.g. missed diamonds).

Maybe I am overthinking this hand; just trying to see if my default lines are reasonable. Given a read, I might donk the river, but just wanted to see what people thought of that line outside of a read.

[sthief09]

bet/folding is something you don't want to do much of at 10/20

[sweetjazz]

Yeah I generally hate bet/fold but I didn't want to bias replies. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But I am wondering about bet/call because I might get more value that way, especially if the villain might be more inclined to bluff raise again than fold with air. With the right read, I would like it, but I was wondering if the line had merit against an unknown, given how aggressive the game is. (And the mathematical fact that if you're raised on the turn by an unknown, it's more likely to be by an aggressive player than a passive player.) Also the villain might be trying to get a free showdown, and I almost certainly have him beat in that case. Many players still call with bottom pair or A high though, either afraid that my donkbet is a bluff or because they aren't thinking whatsoever (though one adjustment I have had to make is that there is much less of that at 10/20; most people are thinking something, and the key seems to be to exploit knowledge of what they are thinking). Of course, I lose an extra bet against legitimate hands.

[colgin]

I would probably just call down, but I could see calling the turn and then bet/calling a blank on the river.

The reason I like just checking the river though is that I am not to worried about a worse hand that would have caled a bet checking through. If he is semi-bluff raising the turn here then villain wil fold to your river bet whereas he might have bluffed. If he cold-called with a pocket pair like 88, for example, or with A7, he will probably bet the river for value anyway. Since I don't want to pay off two bets when behind (which I would since I am not folding without a better read to a river raise on a blank), and am likely to get the same 1 bet when ahead that I would get just betting, I think this makes for an easy check-call.

[Lmn55d]

basically I think there are a lot more made hands than semibluffing hands on that board. These will usually bet th river. The semibluffing hands will bet the river too, at an even higher rate! Let the dumby take the lead.

[sweetjazz]

Villain checked behind on the river and showed AJo, so MHIG.

What do we think of villain's play on the turn? Should I be folding AK / AQ / AJ to a turn raise here? (Of course, villain didn't know I was a TAG, so it's not clear what he was trying to accomplish with his raise; very possibly it was a "raising could do something good for me" raise or a "oh i have a pretty premium starting hand and haven't gotten a raise in yet so i'd better do it now" raise.)

While villain did not play this hand particularly well, his mistakes are not of the same magnitude of sheer stupidity that I see at other limits. Of course, I have seen some incredibly stupid plays at 10/20; I'm trying to figure out what -- if anything -- people are thinking when they make their aggressive plays, because so far everything I have done to counter them seems not to work. I think this is somewhat due to running bad and somewhat due to failing to properly adjust to the new limit, so I appreciate the help with these hands, even though they are somewhat routine.