$215: Interesting use of the min. bet

[Irieguy]

You don't see a min. bet into a large pot on the turn very often in a $215. I didn't know this player and it was the third hand or so of the SNG.

(Preflop note; I don't like to let players min-raise from early position when I'm in late position... so I was calling with any two here.)

Maybe this hand isn't interesting... but I had to think quite a bit while I was playing it, so I thought it might be worth posting. I'm sure that just about everybody would play every street differently than I did.


***** Hand History for Game 2708601656 *****
15/30 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 15722432) - Wed Sep 14 02:51:57 EDT 2005
Table Table 10899 (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Ritschi (700)
Seat 2: this2shalpas (990)
Seat 3: shannon210 (975)
Seat 4: clcmillion (1310)
Seat 5: Twostepping (1000)
Seat 6: freeway99 (1040)
Seat 7: HoytCorkins5 (1000)
Seat 8: madpete (1000)
Seat 9: CrazyyGramps (1000)
Seat 10: KleemannCLK (985)
clcmillion posts small blind (10)
Twostepping posts big blind (15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to this2shalpas [ Qd, Js ]
freeway99 raises (30) to 30
HoytCorkins5 folds.
madpete folds.
CrazyyGramps folds.
KleemannCLK calls (30)
Ritschi folds.
this2shalpas calls (30)
shannon210 folds.
clcmillion calls (20)
Twostepping folds.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 2h, 3c, Jh ]
clcmillion checks.
freeway99 bets (135)
KleemannCLK folds.
this2shalpas calls (135)
clcmillion folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4d ]
freeway99 bets (15)
this2shalpas calls (15)
** Dealing River ** : [ 8s ]
freeway99 bets (250)
this2shalpas calls (250)


Irieguy

[bluefeet]

Assuming he was setting you up for a c/r, or strong river move, what would you suspect is the difference between the min-bet and a check on the turn?

Is CALLING a min-bet on your part somehow a weaker "tell" vs. CHECKING behind?

Put another way...

Is NOT raising a min-bet weaker than NOT leading behind a check?


...or is this some psychological "blocking move", having feared your cold-call on the flop some? But min?!


Question for you: Was your call on the river swaded at all by this bizzare bet? Would you have called if he continued his pot'ish assertion on the turn?

(I play at the $22s and $11s)

Thats a really weird turn bet, and it gets pretty suspicous when he turns up the juice on the river.

I'd like to know why you called the river, was it to gain information for future SnGs, or did you believe you had the best hand...because I think your behind.

I'd really like to hear what you think is so interesting about this. Is turn min-bet blocking? I doubt that could be very successful at the 215s, although at the 11s I think that may actually work. Is turn min-bet an attempt to encourage a raise? That sounds like it may be reasonable on some boards, but the flop now has a heart draw and a straight draw out, so unless he has Ah5h, I don't like it here, and even then, another shot of 135 looks pretty weak.

My diagnosis is that it's likely he A) is very unfamiliar with poker and his bet amounts on the other two streets just happened to be normal or B) meant to bet a different amount.

[Smockstack]

Did he hit the straight on the turn, bet small hoping to look like a blocking bet so that you'd come over the top? I could also see this as an attempted blocking bet with a missed A,K or A,Q, but if so, why the min bet pre-flop. The only other option I could see is pocket 8s and he hit the set on the river.....Really none of the bet sizes make a whole lot of sense to me, but I'm basically a betting retard......to much push/fold moreean for me.

[ChuckNorris]

Interesting hand. I only play the $55's, so I'm unfamiliar with the context. But anyways, I like preflop and flop, and I think that I would most of the time play them like you did, no matter what the buy-in. On the turn however, in the games I've played at, I usually raise whenever someone minibets. Especially when it's heads up. It's just almost always a sign of weakness, and raising takes the pot. You had a hand here though, so calling might be better.

On the river I first thought that this looks like a pretty tough call, which I guess it is, but then I started thinking: do you think that villain is considering your just calling the turn minibet as a sign of weakness, and thus is very likely to be bluffing?

I wanna ask.. Did you call the turn hoping for a cheap showdown or to induce a bluff /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[lorinda]

I think the turn bet is to turn players into guessers.

Looking at the replies so far, it might not be too bad /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Lori

[vexvelour]

This seems insane for a $215.

I'm thinking maybe a missed flush draw he's trying to scare you out of on the river?

If you guys think I'm wrong, please indulge me in why. I'm curious.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
...or B) meant to bet a different amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm starting to like this one. Meant to slow down a tad, bet t150 - forgot the "0"...you didn't raise - led hard on the river /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Heh, I think I do play every street differently but the whole sequence is so strange that I find it hard to say you did anything wrong. Still, if I had to pick one spot to do something differently then I would raise the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I think the turn bet is to turn players into guessers.

Looking at the replies so far, it might not be too bad /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

good point lori, we should rename this play/situation the "Irieguy Dilemma". /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[WebGuySteve]

I couldn't come up with a reasonable hand for him here. I think I like the way you played it. If you're not going to raise the turn, the river call is a no brainer. I think raising the turn is ok folding to a reraise, but, I think I like this line better. I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn over TT or TJ here.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


I wanna ask.. Did you call the turn hoping for a cheap showdown or to induce a bluff /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I called the turn to induce a bluff. That's a big part of my game, and something that I worked on a lot with Unarmed. It's also something that few players do, and something that I don't think I've ever seen a post about.

That's why this hand was interesting to me. I don't remember ever calling on the turn to induce a bluff, because it's normally a sign of strength. But calling a min bet shows extreme weakness and I was ready to call any amount on the river unless an ace hit.

Irieguy

I actually like the turn min raise, because if nothing else it will make you second guess what is going on, but the huge river bet looks like he is just paying you off.

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
I called the turn to induce a bluff. That's a big part of my game, and something that I worked on a lot with Unarmed. It's also something that few players do, and something that I don't think I've ever seen a post about.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well.. Maybe not at the STT forum at least. Calling to induce bluffs is something I've begun to understand after playing some 0,5/1 6max No-Limit and reading the PL/NL forums. Check/calling just seems to be almost a tabu, thanks to all those Books I guess. And on this forum perhaps thanks to the prevailing, and of course very correct, push/fold strategy.

[ QUOTE ]
That's why this hand was interesting to me. I don't remember ever calling on the turn to induce a bluff, because it's normally a sign of strength. But calling a min bet shows extreme weakness and I was ready to call any amount on the river unless an ace hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

VNH, I think.

[ezmogee]

I agree this hand is really fantastically interesting. If I couldn't see the board, I'd say that the betting felt like an ambiguous overpair, but with a queen high flop, that leaves only KK and AA. Another possibility is a decent ace like AJ...

Unfortunately, I think you have to call the river because you're getting better than 2:1, but I just really wouldn't know where I'm at. Top pair is either far ahead or far behind.

I'd be curious to see the result. That would explain the cause for the min bet...either looking for you to raise or because he is weak...I personally am 50/50 on it, so that's why I'm calling it down.

For the future, I think the correct move here is to raise the flop, and fold if he plays back.

[skipperbob]

I don't understand any part of the play of this Hand /images/graemlins/blush.gif
1.) You have told me "ad nauseum" to stay away from hands like Q-Joff in the early going.
2.) I don't understand your late-position call on the flop; "pump it -or- dump it"
3.) Your call of the min-bet on the turn must be "I've played this really bad so far; why change now"
4.) I understand the call on the Riv; if he had a monster he would push
/images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I put him on A-Js

[kevstreet]

I'm going off the board and guessing you won the hand.
Perhaps Villain playing AQ or AK, strangely I may add?

[mcpherzen]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand any part of the play of this Hand /images/graemlins/blush.gif
1.) You have told me "ad nauseum" to stay away from hands like Q-Joff in the early going.
2.) I don't understand your late-position call on the flop; "pump it -or- dump it"
3.) Your call of the min-bet on the turn must be "I've played this really bad so far; why change now"
4.) I understand the call on the Riv; if he had a monster he would push
/images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I put him on A-Js

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of SFB's "funny" posts are not funny. This serious post, however, is quite amusing. Ah, the delicious irony.

A-J???? This is the best you could do. What numbnuts at a $215 would bet $15 into a $400 pot with TPTK and a flush draw on board?

-Z

[WebGuySteve]

The more I think about this hand, the more I think he has 55-TT with either 55, 88, or TT being the most likely.

[skipperbob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand any part of the play of this Hand /images/graemlins/blush.gif
1.) You have told me "ad nauseum" to stay away from hands like Q-Joff in the early going.
2.) I don't understand your late-position call on the flop; "pump it -or- dump it"
3.) Your call of the min-bet on the turn must be "I've played this really bad so far; why change now"
4.) I understand the call on the Riv; if he had a monster he would push
/images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I put him on A-Js

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of SFB's "funny" posts are not funny. This serious post, however, is quite amusing. Ah, the delicious irony.

A-J???? This is the best you could do. What numbnuts at a $215 would bet $15 into a $400 pot with TPTK and a flush draw on board?

-Z

[/ QUOTE ]

Me & Gig

PS: You don't even know where the $215's are /images/graemlins/frown.gif
PPS: You got beat @ *STTF-HUC* by a 14-year old & a sweet young man who looks at you "Quizzically" whenever he has the greek-nutz /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[maddog2030]

[ QUOTE ]
I called the turn to induce a bluff. That's a big part of my game, and something that I worked on a lot with Unarmed. It's also something that few players do, and something that I don't think I've ever seen a post about.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a massive part of my early game. I'm sure its just not something discussed here, but its constantly discussed in cash game forums/settings. How else does one gain much value from marginal holdings? Making people fold worse hands? Boo.

Also, given how confusing the opp's line is, I think I would've played it just like you did. I'm sitting here now looking at it and I can't figure out what the hell he's thinking... it just seems so inconsistent.

I might even call if I was pretty sure my hand was not good (though I think yours is good here, but I'm unfamiliar with how some of the $215ers play) just to see what he has and maybe figure out what was going through his head. This game is no fun if I can't figure out what he's thinking.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand any part of the play of this Hand /images/graemlins/blush.gif
1.) You have told me "ad nauseum" to stay away from hands like Q-Joff in the early going.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't play Q-J early in a SNG if you will put this opponent on A-J with that action on the turn. Nor can you play it if you will pay-off A-Q when you both make a queen. But if you don't make either of those mistakes, and you are capable of inducing a bluff from an ace that misses, almost any hand is profitable from late position against a min-raiser preflop.

[ QUOTE ]

2.) I don't understand your late-position call on the flop; "pump it -or- dump it"

[/ QUOTE ]

A poker hand, like the universe, will unfold as it should. I am not afraid of the turn. Most opponents are. Let's see it.
[ QUOTE ]


3.) Your call of the min-bet on the turn must be "I've played this really bad so far; why change now"

[/ QUOTE ]

Precisely my thinking.

[ QUOTE ]

4.) I understand the call on the Riv; if he had a monster he would push

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't understand the call on the river if you don't understand the call on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]

I put him on A-Js

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the only two-card combination that it would be essentialy impossible for him to have.

Irieguy

[Nick B.]

I remember in a post a long time ago Greg Raymer said to treat a min bet like a check, what would you do if he checked the turn?

[skipperbob]

[ QUOTE ]
That's the only two-card combination that it would be essentialy impossible for him to have.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking exactly /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[microbet]

15 on the turn is neither a block, nor value, so I would think most likely he is trying to induce a bluff. Then, he says, "wow, a calling station" and value bets the river. Second most likely is that his warped mind thought it was a block.

edit: I'm not taking any possible posting bias into account.

[awr000]

Smells like a small suited Ace played poorly early

[skipperbob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's the only two-card combination that it would be essentialy impossible for him to have.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking exactly /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

What was the "Heiny-count" prior to the start of this hand?

[Michael C.]

I don't know about others here, but I fairly often bet 15 by accident when I'm multi-tabling. It especially happens when I want to automatically hit "bet the pot" and then by the time it comes to me I ended up mini-betting instead. It's of course entirely possible there's a real reason, but that actually seems more likely to me than anything else. Anyway, I'd probably have treated it as a check, and I might have raised something into it to see how he responds. But if you think the mini-bet was intentional, than inducing a bluff is an interesting line. Honestly, it's hard for me to put villian on anything here.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
I remember in a post a long time ago Greg Raymer said to treat a min bet like a check, what would you do if he checked the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy check. Against most opponents the value you gain by showing weakness and inducing river bluffs exceeds the risk you take by giving a free card. Also, I'm not real interested in opening up the betting on the turn as it allows villain to C/R with hands I currently have beat.

[Roland32]

I have on occasion slid the bar and have accidently slide back to a min bet. I am thinking that it may be a real possibility but then again he did min raise preflop. OT I have learned from those accidents that against aggressive opponenets min bets on turn will often lead to reraise all ins making it a possible trap move against the right opponent.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm not real interested in opening up the betting on the turn as it allows villain to C/R with hands I currently have beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you care whether his alleged bluff occurs on the turn or the river?

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I remember in a post a long time ago Greg Raymer said to treat a min bet like a check, what would you do if he checked the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I remember Greg's post saying that... and I would say that it's true insofar as a min-bet is usually closer to a check than a real bet.

But in this particular case it seemed to me as though the villain was min-betting specifically to find out whether or not he would be able to bluff me off the hand on the river.

If he had checked, I would have checked behind, of course.

Irieguy

[kong98]

[ QUOTE ]
That's the only two-card combination that it would be essentialy impossible for him to have.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why he can't have AJ? Can someone please throw me a bone and explain why this is impossible? He would have raised bigger pre-flop? Not bet as much on the flop? Never played the hand in the first place?

Help...

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why he can't have AJ? Can someone please throw me a bone and explain why this is impossible? He would have raised bigger pre-flop? Not bet as much on the flop? Never played the hand in the first place?

Help...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you have top-pair, top-kicker on the turn, and there is a flush draw on board... how much would you bet into a 400 chip pot? If you were to play that situation 100 times, how often would you bet 15? If you were to ask 100 players how they would play it, how many would say "I would min-bet, of course?"

He could have an underpair, a set, a flush draw, an ace, or any two cards other than AJ... but he can't have AJ.

Irieguy

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
how many would say "I would min-bet, of course?"


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly one.

Your pops, /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

Yugoslav
Who thinks this thread is pretty dope....
PS What if he bets out 1/3 pot on the turn?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm not real interested in opening up the betting on the turn as it allows villain to C/R with hands I currently have beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you care whether his alleged bluff occurs on the turn or the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's harder to call on the turn as you will have shown strength by betting when you could have checked.

[kong98]

[ QUOTE ]
He could have an underpair, a set, a flush draw, an ace, or any two cards other than AJ... but he can't have AJ.


[/ QUOTE ]

Damn... it always seems obvious once someone spells it out for me. /images/graemlins/blush.gif Thanks for the help!

[Jman28]

I like the way you played the turn and river, and for all the reasons that have already been stated.

I would've folded preflop and on the flop without reads, but I'm not saying that I'm right.

What do you do if he bets 3/4 pot on the turn?

[SCfuji]

hey irieguy

what do you think most villains who minbet the turn would do if you min-raised the turn?

do you see them checking the river most of the time or leading the river with a pot-sized bet?

thanks
fuji

[microbet]

How many players out of 100 would bet 15 into a 400 pot under any of those circumstances?

Why is a set any different than AJ?

[citanul]

depends what villains hand actually is.

the point is that by just calling, you don't make bad hands go away, in fact you inspire them to take another shot on the river. meanwhile good hands would cost your more money or force you to fold when you could have come cheap or seen a cheap card with some outs, etc.

the tactic is to make sure that on the river, when there's no more cards to come, your opponent bluffs, as well as value bets. if you raise the turn, you're not going to have many bluffs sent your way on the river.

the only hand that it sucks for the opponent to have is a reasonable draw, as you could be giving him basically a free card on his tiny blocking bet. this happens. you put him on a range and go from there.

citanul

[citanul]

a set is way stronger than aj...

(as in when villain has a set, he knows that basically no matter what hero has, he's unlikely to have many outs to beat him.)

citanul

[microbet]

Right. If, people bluff more often by betting on the river there, than they do by check/raising the turn, you will have a more profitable call (the times they beat you with the free card will weigh against this - but the Irie/Unarmed thesis is that it doesn't outweigh it)

[microbet]

Right, but the flush is what is threatening - though less so when a few of the flush cards would give you a full house.

[awr000]

What would you consider a reasonable draw here?

[citanul]

well, you play poker, so does your opponent.

you're going to call on a flush river for a bet of some maximum size x
you're going to fold on a flush river for a bet over that amount x
your opponent is going to have the flush some percentage of the time y
your opponent is going to bet without the flush on the flush river some other percentage z
your opponent is going to bet some non flush card rivers with hands you beat that don't have a flush draw to them some amount of the time a
your opponent is going to bet some non flush card rivers with hands hands that beat you that don't have a flush draw to them some amount of the time b
your opponent is going to bet the non flush card river with flush cards that you beat some amount of time c

then you set up a bit sort of matrix based on how often you think he has each of those things, and seek to win the most / lose the least.

your hand has some value to it, having top pair. seeing a showdown isn't a crime. seeing the showdown and having your opponent be bluffing some good fraction of the time, instead of purely value betting, is very good too.

raising on the turn costs chips. those chips could otherwise be used to call a river bet you might have to call on the end anyway, or they could be chips you're just making yourself fold to a turn reraise. while the percentage of the time your chips goes in and gets called on a turn raise and your hand is good is low, the chance that he bluffs into you on the river is significantly higher.

citanul

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


you're going to call on a flush river for a bet of some maximum size x
you're going to fold on a flush river for a bet over that amount x


citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your line of reasoning and explanation with one small exception:

There are many times when I would call a bet up to size x, and fold to a bigger bet... but call a push. That distorts that relationship significantly, and provides even more incentive to induce a river bluff.

Irieguy

[SlackerMcFly]

Villain probably has pocket 8's. The lead on the flop was to define his hand, got called by (surely) a J.

I briefly considered Ah5h, but don't think that he would lead out from MP with a raise on that hand.

Now behind in the hand, min-bets the turn with his 8's to see if J will push, or get a real cheap card.

River is Bingo for Villain (8's) or the made hand with Ah5h from the turn. How much can he extract from Hero w/out scaring him off the pair of J's? t250 seemed to be the right amount...

But I play Omaha HL /images/graemlins/grin.gif Shalacka

[microbet]

Ok, that post made my eyeballs spin and I have to drive home. I'll read more carefully later, but, does any of that mean he's more likely to bet 15 on the turn with a set than with AJ?

[microbet]

Then, using the computer model, IRIE generated every thought VILLIAN could possibly have in the next, say ten years, which IRIE then filtered through a probability matrix to determine everything VILLIAN was going to do in that period. So you see, IRIE knew VILLIAN was going to MIN-BET THE TURN before it ever even occurred to VILLIAN. IRIE knows everything VILLIAN IS ever going to do before VILLIAN knowS it HIMself. How about that?

jk, of course.

[Michael C.]

Again this assumes the bet wasn't a mistake. Honestly, I think a mistake here is as possible as almost anything else. I mean how many players here would mini-bet the turn at all? Of course most likely you have some info about the player since the 215 world is smaller than most, no?

[Michael C.]

So you think it's that much more likely that villian has an ace here and will bluff the river if he misses than any other possibility? What if he has a flush draw and is making a silly blocking bet, and then check/folds the river? Maybe he would have called your bet on the turn, especially if he has an ace, which is likely? Of course it depends a lot on your read of the player, but I think there are certainly merits to both calling and raising on the turn, and I think it's at least possible by checking you are giving him a free draw at 12 outs, and will miss a bet you could have gotten called. Versus the possibility of inducing a bluff. Either is possible, as is the possibility that he has something like AJ and misclicked. Better players than me might know what is right here, but I don't think it's an "easy" call unless you have a read.

Honestly, the more I think about this, the more I think it's a mistake. Did you consider that Irie? What do you do on the river if a Q falls and he makes the same river bet? If an A falls? A J? A heart? All of this is very dependent on whether you think the bet was an accident, as is essentially your entire analysis. He could even have AJ if he meant to bet a reasonable amount. I'd pay attention here to whether or not he bet quickly.

Judging by the fact that you posted this hand, I'm assuming that it became clear to you after the hand that this wasn't a mistake, but this is just as results-oriented then one of those annoying posts entitled "fold KK here" in which some donk open pushes with AA and hero's unlucky enough to have KK. To say categorically that he can't have AJ here is similar to hero in that hand saying "I read him for AA."


Ignoring the possibility of a misclick here is a legitimate leak.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
To say categorically that he can't have AJ here is similar to hero in that hand saying "I read him for AA."

Ignoring the possibility of a misclick here is a legitimate leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of this being a misclick vs. 'not AJ', however, are tiny enough for it not to be a factor.

Maybe if he turbo minbet or something, but if he took any time...nah. He picked up a draw or some other thing of that nature (which is still possibly reason to raise the turn, but I don't mind trapping, either.)

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


Ignoring the possibility of a misclick here is a legitimate leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's one of the funniest things anyone has ever told me about my poker game.

Irieguy

[microbet]

Wah, no replies to my humorous use of a movie quote.

[ QUOTE ]

I put him on A-Js

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the only two-card combination that it would be essentialy impossible for him to have.
Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

OK I'll bite, why is it impossible? Isn't that about as valid as someone watching your play this hand and saying that it's essentially impossible for you to have QJ?

[curtains]

It may be becuase the jack is the jack of hearts, thus impossible to have AJs and have a flush draw. Also if s=spades, Irie has the Jack of spades.

I put him on a heart draw. The min bet on the turn is just to avoid checking and inviting a big bet. Since you didn't raise such a lame bet, he thinks he can steal on the river (maybe thinking you were on the draw also).

[viennagreen]

the villian picked up 4 more outs on the turn, and the min. bet ended up being an effective blocking bet in this case--- but he just couldn't let the hand (AK) go and bluffed the river because of the weakness you indicated.

is that about right?

i don't know whether letting your villian block for 15 chips when he most likely has 10 outs to win the hand is the best move here though--- unless you were unsure of whether you could take the pot down right there.

Taking into account the missclick options sounds like laying down KK preflop because this special feeling AA is out there...

As villians stats in the forbidden helping tool seem more like he miss-clicked choosing the buy-in-level there could be AA-JJ as well shown as JTs. To put villian on more or less my opponents level (22-55) and not 215-winning-player I would hate to call the river but of course you need to do so. But I really would not be to surprised to see me beaten by a very tricky turn-min-bet of him, trying to induce a bluff (horribly given flush-draws etc. a "free-card").

By the way - a couple of people like the Min-Bet EP with AA, KK -> don't ask me why. May be they want at least the blinds with 83o to be out but do not mind playing against QJo OOP... so don't tell me AA is not possible here...

[fnord_too]

I made it about half way through the first page of replies. I don't always call pre flop here, but if I don't have something else going on I will.

Post flop looks really standard to me. The only real debate this stirs up in my mind is wheter I fire enough second barrels, but I don't mini raise in ep (or anywhere, really, I should work on late mini-raises some, need to figure out how they would fit into the gestalt of my play).

What do you do if he fires a real bet on the turn? That is a tough spot with no read.

[vexvelour]

Can someone explain why this isn't a flush draw he's trying to steal on the river? No one has even considered this in their musings, and I'm wondering why.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone explain why this isn't a flush draw he's trying to steal on the river? No one has even considered this in their musings, and I'm wondering why.

[/ QUOTE ]

i've quite considered it in my musings and in my postings, or at least implied it.

i think that you've got a big problem in your thinking though:

the point is to do analysis. the point is not to figure out what the opponent has on this one particular hand. the point is to figure out what the best line is, while considering the whoe gamut of hands that he will have in this spot, and maximize your ev from that. what the guy has in this particular spot is not very relevant, but rather what he has 1000x he does this.

ace high flush draw or ace high flush draw with a pair are very reasonable things to have in that range. as are a couple othe rflush draws i guess.

citanul

[maddog2030]

Results?

[vexvelour]

Thanks citanul. I'm currently working on this and appreciate your analysis.