$100k in '05 (brag and commentary)

Let me preface the post by saying I'm not sure it's a good idea. And I hope it doesn't clog the boards with other "I won a lot" posts. And I recognize that there are other posters who are considerably better than I am and who win considerably more.

That said, last week I hit my 2005 goal of $100k (in about 125,000 hands). Yay me.

My story's not much different from many others' around here. I started playing 2 1/2 years ago with $500 at $2/$4. This year, I've played 30/60, 15/30, and 10/20 6-max; all 4-tabling. I also played in the $2000 limit HE event at the WSOP -- I've posted about getting schooled by David Pham earlier, but school is for learning and those 4+ hours of play have really helped my game in a bunch of ways. I would play more but I have a job that can be very demanding and a 13 month old son, and I have a rule that I never play when I'm at home and he's awake. So I figure I've logged about 450-500 hours, which translates to $200+/hr.

Here are a few of the key stats, although some may be a little off since I only started using PT in February and I have played some 15/30 and 10/20 6max on my work computer, which doesn't have PT (I've tracked # of hands and winrate reasonably well, but not the other stats, obviously):

30/60: 1.7BB/100; 21/12/1.9 (30,000 hands)
15/30: 2.9BB/100; 23/12/2.1 (55,000 hands)
10/20 (6 max): 3.3BB/100; 30/20/2.2 (40,000 hands)

I also wanted to say a few things that I think may actually contribute substantively to the boards -- rather than me just patting myself on the back. I'm cross-posting this in mid-, high-stakes and heads-up & short-handed, so some of the comments might not be as relevant to one as the other, but here goes:

First, the quality of the strategy posts lately has been really top notch. As good or better as any time since I became a "member" 2+ years ago. Most of my understanding of the game comes from the excellent discussions here. So thanks to all of you and to David and Mason and 2+2. No, none of you gets a cut.

But, I think many posters are still sometimes too dismissive of contrary views. 2+2 dogma isn't always right; the fact it has evolved over time is proof of that. Contrary views are therefore critical not only because they're sometimes right, but because even if they aren't, we can often learn from the discussions they trigger. Plus, oftentimes the people who make the absolute statements aren't nearly as right as they think they are. In the last few months I've been definitively told a dozen times that if I play the way I suggest "I'll get run over." They seem to be wrong. But my point is that we can't learn from contrary views unless we take them seriously and address them respectfully, with a thoughtful explanation. The mid-high forum is much better about this than it was a year ago, but I still see the one-liner "this is wrong" stuff sometimes. This is much more common in the HU/SH forum and the posters who do it often don't have things quite right, IMHO. Plus there are many posters there who get pissed if you so much as suggest that they might've played a hand differently. Not particularly conducive to learning or improving, but I get the sense that that's not the reason some of the posters in HU/SH post.

In the same vein, I think we should all recognize that there isn't always one single right play for every situation or for every player. For example, I think that I have certain skills (selective aggression, hand reading, general post-flop play, etc.) that allow me profitably to play more hands in the 10/20 6max game than many think is optimal. My particular strengths (and weaknesses) may suggest a different approach to particular hands than would be optimal for a player with different abilities. My point is that we should keep in mind that sometimes there are intangibles -- or even tangibles -- that may impact our thinking about how to play hands and that not every situation has a one-size fits all answer. Though most probably do.

Finally, I think people often don't take into consideration many factors that are critical to proper analysis of a hand. Many posts don't include reads of the "villains," and those that do often include only the now standard VPIP/PF raise/post-flop aggro stats. But for most hands that are at all interesting the right play will be a function of the tendencies of our villains (as well as what villain thinks our tendencies are). There's rarely discussion of important stats like WSD, or c/r, or blind steal, or blind fold to steal. So I encourage everyone to think about how those stats change the analysis, and to include more of them in their posts.

That's about it. Now back to the real stuff.

[ChicagoTroy]

Congratulations, that's terrific. About how many tables and hrs./wk did you play? Nice win rates, the 10/20 is particularly impressive, sample size caveats notwithstanding.

[Alobar]

good post, and congratulations on reaching your goal!

And if you really are thankful for 2+2 and all us posters, your winning ass should contribute by posting more, instead of just lurking /images/graemlins/smile.gif (oh, and do it in here, not mid-high /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

seriously tho, nice job

[Vaftrudner]

Congrats man. I've played with (against) you some, but nowadays choose other tables...;) /v

[MrBig30]

Congratulations!!
And I am also looking forward to future strategy-related posts by you...

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that I have certain skills (selective aggression, hand reading, general post-flop play, etc.) that allow me profitably to play more hands in the 10/20 6max game than many think is optimal. My particular strengths (and weaknesses) may suggest a different approach to particular hands than would be optimal for a player with different abilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

How much do u think your winrate would change if u played for example 25% instead of 30%?

I have always had a hard time thinking it is those last 5% that is the difference between, lets say, 2BB/100 and 3BB/100. Then we should only make 2BB/100 with our first 25% and 1BB/100 with worst and pretty marginal hands.

What strenghth/weaknesses are u thinking off that makes u change your game?

[RunDownHouse]

First, congrats. That's a seriously impressive milestone, especially with a real job! If you don't mind me asking, how many hours/week do you work and what line of work are you in?

[MrBig30]

[ QUOTE ]
There's rarely discussion of important stats like WSD, or c/r, or blind steal, or blind fold to steal. So I encourage everyone to think about how those stats change the analysis, and to include more of them in their posts.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very true from what I have seen...

[Surfbullet]

Congrats Hock,

I look forward to hearing strategy-related posts in the future, too. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Surf

[DaSpade]

Congrats on reaching your goal and good post.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
But, I think many posters are still sometimes too dismissive of contrary views. 2+2 dogma isn't always right; the fact it has evolved over time is proof of that. Contrary views are therefore critical not only because they're sometimes right, but because even if they aren't, we can often learn from the discussions they trigger. Plus, oftentimes the people who make the absolute statements aren't nearly as right as they think they are. In the last few months I've been definitively told a dozen times that if I play the way I suggest "I'll get run over." They seem to be wrong. But my point is that we can't learn from contrary views unless we take them seriously and address them respectfully, with a thoughtful explanation. The mid-high forum is much better about this than it was a year ago, but I still see the one-liner "this is wrong" stuff sometimes. This is much more common in the HU/SH forum and the posters who do it often don't have things quite right, IMHO. Plus there are many posters there who get pissed if you so much as suggest that they might've played a hand differently. Not particularly conducive to learning or improving, but I get the sense that that's not the reason some of the posters in HU/SH post.

[/ QUOTE ]

thank you. thank you. thank you. thank you. etc.

[ QUOTE ]
How much do u think your winrate would change if u played for example 25% instead of 30%?

I have always had a hard time thinking it is those last 5% that is the difference between, lets say, 2BB/100 and 3BB/100. Then we should only make 2BB/100 with our first 25% and 1BB/100 with worst and pretty marginal hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. You're probably right. But at the same time too many people ignore Mason's essay on this subject which advocates playing more hands against lesser opponents. Think of it this way: 1BB/100 is really just one bad bet or call (let alone raise) by one of your opponents in maybe 80 minutes of 6max play (one table). You can count on many of the 10/20 6max players to make LOTS of BIG mistakes; you want to be in the hand to be the recipient of their charity. Obviously this can only be pushed so far. And the same approach doesn't work in the Party 30/60 games where the players are by and large pretty good. But so far I'm finding that 30 is about right for my game in the 10/20 6max.

[joseki]

Nice work. I recently started playing the 10/20SH and have played several sessions with you. Your winrate is pretty impressive, so I've been looking over some of your hands. The first thing I noticed is that you are very aggressive in certain situations.

I hope you don't mind that I've posted two such situations below. I wonder if these are typical plays, or if you had specific reads (that differed from mine, apparently) that led you to play so aggressively.

Hand 1:

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hock_ is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Button calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB


Hand 2:

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hock_ is CO with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG folds, CO calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, BB calls.

River: (19.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

[Lmn55d]

[ QUOTE ]
Think of it this way: 1BB/100 is really just one bad bet or call (let alone raise) by one of your opponents in maybe 80 minutes of 6max play (one table)

[/ QUOTE ]

The magnitude of a bad bet,raise, or call (in terms of EV, which BB/100 is measuring) is almost never 1BB. It is some fraction of 1 BB. Usually a small fraction.

[ QUOTE ]
Nice work. I recently started playing the 10/20SH and have played several sessions with you. Your winrate is pretty impressive, so I've been looking over some of your hands. The first thing I noticed is that you are very aggressive in certain situations.

I hope you don't mind that I've posted two such situations below. I wonder if these are typical plays, or if you had specific reads (that differed from mine, apparently) that led you to play so aggressively.

Hand 1:

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hock_ is Button with A, T.
2 folds, Button raises, SB 3-bets, BB caps, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9, Q, K (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Button raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Button calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) J (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Button raises, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 2 (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB


Hand 2:

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hock_ is CO with A, A.
UTG calls, MP raises, CO 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) Q, 9, K (4 players)
BB bets, UTG raises, MP folds, CO 3-bets, BB caps, UTG folds, CO calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) A (2 players)
BB bets, CO raises, BB 3-bets, CO caps, BB calls.

River: (19.25 BB) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, CO bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I don't remember the hands, so I don't know what my reads were, but both look ok to me. In fact, I quite like how I played both of them, assuming I was up against players who are more aggressive than average.

The flop raise in hand 1 is particularly interesting, I think. I'd encourage others to discuss that one play before I weigh in.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop raise in hand 1 is particularly interesting, I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like you are trying to buy outs in a spot that is really really bad for buying outs. I can't think of any other reason to make that move.

Krishan

Actually I can't figure out what you are doing.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I don't remember the hands, so I don't know what my reads were, but both look ok to me. In fact, I quite like how I played both of them, assuming I was up against players who are more aggressive than average.



[/ QUOTE ]

I check behind the river in hand 1, given the board and the action, its gotta be JT or a flush (both are hands people will call fromthe BB with) much much more than a 2 pair or a set of 9s no?

[wheelz]

hand 1 looks like tilt to me /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I don't remember the hands, so I don't know what my reads were, but both look ok to me. In fact, I quite like how I played both of them, assuming I was up against players who are more aggressive than average.



[/ QUOTE ]

I check behind the river in hand 1, given the board and the action, its gotta be JT or a flush (both are hands people will call fromthe BB with) much much more than a 2 pair or a set of 9s no?

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's your read then hero shouldn't cap the turn.

Surf

[Wynton]

I've got a easy question about Hand 1. Do you routinely cap in this situation? If you're not capping with any hand there that you've raised from the button, can you tell me where you draw the line and how?

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like you are trying to buy outs in a spot that is really really bad for buying outs. I can't think of any other reason to make that move.

Krishan

Actually I can't figure out what you are doing.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I can't quite figure it out either. it looks like trying to buy outs, but it doesn't really make sense for it with the action in the hand so far. the gutshot is worth something in this big pot since you might get extra action from the smaller straight, but your equity on that flop is pretty bad. and if the players are loose and aggressive, then you have almost no folding equity, and a VERY high chance of being 3bet after you raise, which really sucks.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I don't remember the hands, so I don't know what my reads were, but both look ok to me. In fact, I quite like how I played both of them, assuming I was up against players who are more aggressive than average.



[/ QUOTE ]

I check behind the river in hand 1, given the board and the action, its gotta be JT or a flush (both are hands people will call fromthe BB with) much much more than a 2 pair or a set of 9s no?

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's your read then hero shouldn't cap the turn.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't necessarily cap the turn. When I have a set that could be beaten it seems so much better to see if I fill up to put in extra bets. I mean it's not like a flush or straight isn't going to lead the river if the board pairs. It's true that he could be up against a smaller set or 2 pair also though.

Krishan

[sthief09]

I'd appreciate it a lot if you could explain to me how exactly you use the c/r stat, because I don't even have it on my HUD. also I have asked before about wtsd but didn't receive many responses, and would like to know your thoughts on that too (more associating VPIP with WtSD and playing style than actually explaining the number)

Having the c/r stat handy makes it a lot easier to bet for value in position.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Having the c/r stat handy makes it a lot easier to bet for value in position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also you can use it to determine whether to fire the second barrel unimproved. Allows you to release to crs easier because there are some people with a cr % that is really low.

Krishan

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't necessarily cap the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know how I feel about giving free cards /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]

The flop raise in hand 1 is particularly interesting, I think. I'd encourage others to discuss that one play before I weigh in.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like you are hoping to fold out SB's PP, which would be a good move - but first you'd have to tell me what you put BB on so that you expect to be ahead of him a reasonable amount of the time to make it worthwhile.

Other than that I don't understand the flop raise at all.

Surf

[Justin A]

Could you tell me your average players per hand in the 10/20 game? It's in the game notes tab of poker tracker, click the get all button, and it shows your APH.

The reason I ask is that in my database I have you at 25/18 for a small sample size, but most of it is six handed. If you like playing tables with only 3 or 4 players, it could have a large effect on your VPIP stats.

I usually pick up and leave once the table gets 4 handed. depending on who's left, of course.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Also you can use it to determine whether to fire the second barrel unimproved. Allows you to release to crs easier because there are some people with a cr % that is really low.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but at times it can be very misleading. like if a person with a low CR turn does CR you, it could mean they either have a total monster, and they randomly bluff every once in a while. if somebody with a high turn CR raises you its still likely to be a solid hand, b/c they're CRing all their TPGK+ hands. sure, they're bluffing more too, but with so many more solid CRing hand combinations, their weighted average hands might not actually be too much worse than a tighter players.

its like how a lot of times the guy with 0-1 PFR finally raises, or 3 bets preflop, and its just with some random suited connecter.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Having the c/r stat handy makes it a lot easier to bet for value in position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also you can use it to determine whether to fire the second barrel unimproved. Allows you to release to crs easier because there are some people with a cr % that is really low.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]


any idea how many hands you need for it to be meaningful?

[Wynton]

And do you know what c/r number would be considered notably high or low?

[kapw7]

Great work! I wish winning players could post more here. I also wish we saw some new strategic ideas as sometimes the 2+2 established strategy looks more like a fasistic regime.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Having the c/r stat handy makes it a lot easier to bet for value in position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also you can use it to determine whether to fire the second barrel unimproved. Allows you to release to crs easier because there are some people with a cr % that is really low.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]


any idea how many hands you need for it to be meaningful?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just put it up and take a look at it from time to time. Truthfully I imagine it doesn't converge until 200-400 hands. But if you get a player with 60 hands that is 80/8/.5 and a cr of .6 than you can rely on it. On the other hand, you will get people that are 50/30/3 with cr% of 3.3 and you can be pretty sure that their choice move to push you off hands is going to be a check raise. If someone check raises between 1.2 and 2.2 I basically ignore it. I'm looking for the extremes which become statistically significant over smaller samples (especially when combined with other stats that are inline with the overall profile)

Krishan

[PokerBob]

.....this is a spite post. Hock is BB.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Hock shows 99. Meh. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

A little luck never hurts.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
A little luck never hurts.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

It's pretty close. A call may have been better. But my thinking was this: I'm not folding. Pot's big already and I have 3 clean outs to the nuts. So with a raise I figured there's an outside chance I can clean up outs (although on reflection that's highly unlikely here) and I may well fold out a medium pocket pair and I may be able to get a free card on the turn. Plus it improves my implied odds because it disguises my hand (although on this particular board that's probably not a big factor).

The principle, though, is that in big pots throwing in an extra bet, especially on a SB street can pay dividends.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

The principle, though, is that in big pots throwing in an extra bet, especially on a SB street can pay dividends.

[/ QUOTE ]

The principle is sound. This is a pretty bad spot to execute it.

Krishan

[PokerBob]

do you have a "game of choice", or do you just bounce around and play whatever you feel like at the moment?

[joker122]

this has certainly been asked already but i don't feel like reading every post in the thread. does this total include rakeback?

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Having the c/r stat handy makes it a lot easier to bet for value in position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also you can use it to determine whether to fire the second barrel unimproved. Allows you to release to crs easier because there are some people with a cr % that is really low.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]


any idea how many hands you need for it to be meaningful?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would think quite a few. this is why i pretty much ignore this number, although i do export it to notes for some reason.

No. In fact, if someone could recommend a good rakeback deal for Party skins, please pm me.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]


Hand 1:

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hock_ is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Button calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB



[/ QUOTE ]
i don't get how anything other than calling the flop makes sense here.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually pick up and leave once the table gets 4 handed. depending on who's left, of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, nevermind then, must just be my small sample.

I haven't played 15/30 since Party opened up the 30/60 tables. So usually I check those out first. If they look good I'll play those, otherwise I play 10/20. I find that I can make almost as much at 10/20 given the higher winrate and more hands per hour. Soon, though, I'm going to start 6 or 8 tabling the 30 games, which will change things.

Plus I find 6max to be a lot more fun, so that's a thumb on the scale.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I don't remember the hands, so I don't know what my reads were, but both look ok to me. In fact, I quite like how I played both of them, assuming I was up against players who are more aggressive than average.



[/ QUOTE ]

I check behind the river in hand 1, given the board and the action, its gotta be JT or a flush (both are hands people will call fromthe BB with) much much more than a 2 pair or a set of 9s no?

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's your read then hero shouldn't cap the turn.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

er, I meant hand 2, but I think you did as well (or at least knew what I meant) so anyway.

Hes got up to 19 outs to the nuts on the turn. And the board provides him alot of protection since we know villian cant have the nut flush, a weak flush has to respect he can still be behind, and the straight has to fear the flush, so I think a very large percent of the time, they check the river with those hands after we cap the turn. So I like it because it seems like a good spot for a chck behind if you dont improve (because I think you are behind), collect an extra bet if you do.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Hes got up to 19 outs to the nuts on the turn. And the board provides him alot of protection since we know villian cant have the nut flush, a weak flush has to respect he can still be behind, and the straight has to fear the flush, so I think a very large percent of the time, they check the river with those hands after we cap the turn. So I like it because it seems like a good spot for a chck behind if you dont improve (because I think you are behind), collect an extra bet if you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you think villian will check after 3betting on a lot of pairing, and club river cards?

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
No. In fact, if someone could recommend a good rakeback deal for Party skins, please pm me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy [censored]. You played all this without any rakeback? You probably missed out on like $15k.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
No. In fact, if someone could recommend a good rakeback deal for Party skins, please pm me.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm going to cry if you really played all of these hands without rakeback. You could have bought a car.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
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Hes got up to 19 outs to the nuts on the turn. And the board provides him alot of protection since we know villian cant have the nut flush, a weak flush has to respect he can still be behind, and the straight has to fear the flush, so I think a very large percent of the time, they check the river with those hands after we cap the turn. So I like it because it seems like a good spot for a chck behind if you dont improve (because I think you are behind), collect an extra bet if you do.

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so you think villian will check after 3betting on a lot of pairing, and club river cards?

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I think he'll check any river most of the time after you cap the turn

[sthief09]

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Having the c/r stat handy makes it a lot easier to bet for value in position.

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Also you can use it to determine whether to fire the second barrel unimproved. Allows you to release to crs easier because there are some people with a cr % that is really low.

Krishan

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any idea how many hands you need for it to be meaningful?

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Just put it up and take a look at it from time to time. Truthfully I imagine it doesn't converge until 200-400 hands. But if you get a player with 60 hands that is 80/8/.5 and a cr of .6 than you can rely on it. On the other hand, you will get people that are 50/30/3 with cr% of 3.3 and you can be pretty sure that their choice move to push you off hands is going to be a check raise. If someone check raises between 1.2 and 2.2 I basically ignore it. I'm looking for the extremes which become statistically significant over smaller samples (especially when combined with other stats that are inline with the overall profile)


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that makes a lot of sense. thanks. one thing, though, is that even for the extremes I think you'll probably need a few hundred hands.

[ggbman]

Barring very tight reads, i don't think either of the hands posted were particularly solid. Not that is it really matters that much, but i am reserving judgement on this post until a little later.

Hock, i like that you discuessed contributing more to the forums and how often people just play by a default line here, because it's true. However, the only actual other posts i remember you making was somehting along the lines of, "i'm a huge winner at 10-20 so you should respect my opinion more than you are right now." However, brag posts are fun, we all enjoy doing them from time to time, and i look forward to seeing some more strategy posts. Keep up the good work!

Gabe

[arkady]

I was really gearing myself at getting irritated by another brag post, but am pleasantly surprised. Those are extremely admirable achievements and a win rate that deserves a little showing off. I won't hide the fact that I am certainly jealous, as I failed to reach that kind of win rate at the 10 before moving on. You are a natural.

I would be very interested in seeing your stats for posted levels, and any levels below 10/20 which you have decent sample sizes for...

[joker122]

wow man. that is a serious chunk of change you let party keep. www.raketracker.com (http://www.raketracker.com)

[TheMetetron]

1) You super need rakeback.

2) Congrats, it's been fun playing with you. Always thought you were a little too aggressive against me, but apparently it's been working.

3) Just hit 100k myself, though 80k of that came in the last 3 1/2 months. It feels good, doesn't it?

4) Congratulations again.

5) Get rakeback.

[jba]

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1) You super need rakeback.

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not to harp on the OP about this - I know I already said something - but it is really grating my nerves right now that Party has this money right now. but I think this is pretty close to folding AA preflop about half of the time you get it.

seriously people if you are playing even small stakes rakeback is a must, monthly bonuses are not even close to cutting it anymore.

[tolbiny]

"and I may well fold out a medium pocket pair"

Folding out a medium PP doesn't do you much good unless you are somehow ahes of the third player in this hand. It seems very unlikely in this situation. Not knowing your reads makes it hard to comment, but i would generally toss the AT preflop when it comes back to me for 2 more bets preflop.

[tolbiny]

Apparently you don't like takeing them either.