Just another draw

[Net Warrior]

3-6 on line averaging 40% seeing the flop and 6bb pots. 1st hand in BB I get As6s. UTG raise, MP coldcalls, CO calls, I call. I'm getting correct odds to call with one caller so this is a nice overlay, right?

Flop 4c 7s 8c

I check my 4 outer + backdoor flush. Anyone semi-bluffing into the pre-flop raiser here with the 5c a tainted out? It's bet, call, call, and I call.

Turn Qs

Things are looking much better now but I've already put a lot of money into the pot and I hate playing these draws. I check and it's bet, call, call, and I call. How weak was it not to have check-raised here?

River 5c

There it is, my tainted out. What's my action? Results to follow.

[Bob T.]

I would bet. The four straight and four flush on the board are going to kill your action if you win. Most likely, you will call if it is a single bet to you, so, I think you can go ahead and bet, and fold to a raise.

[Rockfish]

Unless UTG is insane you probably have him beat. I put him on a big pair or AK or AQ. Unless he's got clubs you're probably ahead of him. Unless MP would cold-call two with medium/small connectors, you're probably ahead of him too, put him on high cards as well or a suited ace or a medium large pair that he doesn't want to re-raise UTG with (error on his part of course). CO, same thing. Probably none of them has a 5. However, the collective outs to clubs are the problem, right?

What would you have done, had you check-raised the turn and the 5c fell? I think the turn check-raise is OK if you plan to check the river. I think that you will not lose the club draws with a check raise but you might get rid of hands that you could beat if the tainted out falls.

Given your current situation, you can check call or bet out and fold to a raise. I like the check-call because you may catch somebody betting a hand you can beat that is less than clubs and it costs you the same as betting out and folding to a raise, with the bonus that you get to see your opponents hand. If there is a bet and a raise before it gets back to you you can fold knowing you are beat. If you put them all on high pairs and they are the types to get married to them then by all means bet out.

I would like to know if anyone finds this analysis weak. I'm still learning and am not sure what to do in this situation either.

Rockfish

[Net Warrior]

I think the question is: when you’re either way ahead or way behind is it better EV to bet-fold or check-call? I’m not at all clear on this. One thing I’m sure of though is, had I check-raised on the Turn (which is clearly +EV in the long run) then my River check-call decision wouldn’t have been so painful. It was checked around, my hand was good, and I didn’t get to see anyone’s cards. Still, 10bb’s ain’t bad.

[Jeffro]

Let me tell you the reason I like the check on the river. Lets say UTG is holding exactly QQ, if you be out he very well might raise after you bet, then you fold. I've seen some silly raising on the river lately and have made some bad laydowns that take awhile to come back from.

[Louie Landale]

You need to gamble more on the turn, and this is the time to do it. You've got a big draw including an Ace. Its entirely possible nobody yet can beat a pair of Qs, and it sure looks like YOU can when you check-raise.

Anyway, on the river: the chances you are beat are pretty high. If you can confidently check-and-fold (because the bettor is sure to have the flush) then do that. But if you feel your hand is ..err.. will be worth paying off, then I'd say you'd do better betting this one out, since SURELY they will call with more hands then they'd bet (of bluff).

Note that this is a good bet even if you are beat most of the time when called; which appears to violate the principals of betting-for-value. Its a good bet because it makes more money than checking-and-calling, which is your other alternative.

- Louie

[Net Warrior]

So the concensus is that if I intent to call on the River then betting out is the better EV play. Usually, once I undersand the math, the better EV play seems natural but here it still seems tough. As Louie suggests, maybe check-fold is best of all. But I think I'd have to call, so that makes betting out the default play. Thanks.