All-In Pot Odds On The Flop

[Degen]

This topic was brushed upon in another thread and wanted to start a new one to get peoples opinions specifically on this matter:

If there has been heavy PF action and you are left semi-shortstacked going into the flop, at what point should you be considering yourself pot commited to call any and all bets on the flop? When you are getting what odds?

Say you have 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in the BB with t700 before the hand starts, you post BB of t400 and have t300 behind (5 players left with semi-even stacks in a PP $100+9). The SB completes and you see a flop of A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB bets t400 and you can call for your last t300 to win t1100 if you get there (where exactly, i don't know...but 'there').

Is this a situation where you cannot fold, getting 11:3?



If I understood some very good players properly in this other thread, there are situations like these when you are supposed to call with any two cards.


Discuss.

[tigerite]

Just push preflop in that situation, then you don't have to worry. Especially as the SB will fold sometimes (yes, I've seen it happen!)

[raptor517]

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Just push preflop in that situation, then you don't have to worry. Especially as the SB will fold sometimes (yes, I've seen it happen!)

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ok this is different than that AQ hand. the sb wont actually fold here very often. if he does, its along the lines of 1 in 30985029385092835235. holla

[Scuba Chuck]

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Just push preflop in that situation, then you don't have to worry. Especially as the SB will fold sometimes (yes, I've seen it happen!)

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ok this is different than that AQ hand. the sb wont actually fold here very often. if he does, its along the lines of 1 in 30985029385092835235. holla

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Raptor, while I agree with your statement, your response insinuates that you think pushing preflop is a mistake. If you don't intend to push in preflop, then I think you are then insinuating that you can fold on this flop.

[EnderFFX]

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Just push preflop in that situation, then you don't have to worry. Especially as the SB will fold sometimes (yes, I've seen it happen!)

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ok this is different than that AQ hand. the sb wont actually fold here very often. if he does, its along the lines of 1 in 30985029385092835235. holla

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Come to the 20's raptor it's more like 1 in 20, holla.

[raptor517]

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Just push preflop in that situation, then you don't have to worry. Especially as the SB will fold sometimes (yes, I've seen it happen!)

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ok this is different than that AQ hand. the sb wont actually fold here very often. if he does, its along the lines of 1 in 30985029385092835235. holla

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Raptor, while I agree with your statement, your response insinuates that you think pushing preflop is a mistake. If you don't intend to push in preflop, then I think you are then insinuating that you can fold on this flop.

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actually, my response insinuates nothing, and if anything, it insinuates i push. do you see why? ok ill break it down. i said that its different than the AQ hand. that means, theres a big difference somewhere. that big difference is in the 1 in 230582093580923598235 part. with the AQ hand, i think its much closer to 1/4, making a push correct boyond a shadow of a doubt. however, again, ill reiterate, that if you know hes calling, its incorrect to push pf. /endhijack.

ok, im an idiot, and dont really wanna delete what i just wrote because i need to pound it in, so leave that for the other thread. in response to this post, with the 79 hand, i dont like pushing pf. you in no way are taking the pot there. yes, you get it all in on the flop, no matter how much it sucks, he might have 87 and u have nuts. also, if he even thinks about checking, you have a great way to be back at 1100 chips by firing the flop. anyways, just some food for thought. holla

[Scuba Chuck]

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actually, my response insinuates nothing, and if anything, it insinuates i push. do you see why? ok ill break it down. i said that its different than the AQ hand. that means, theres a big difference somewhere. that big difference is in the 1 in 230582093580923598235 part. with the AQ hand, i think its much closer to 1/4, making a push correct boyond a shadow of a doubt. however, again, ill reiterate, that if you know hes calling, its incorrect to push pf. /endhijack.

ok, im an idiot, and dont really wanna delete what i just wrote because i need to pound it in, so leave that for the other thread. in response to this post, with the 79 hand, i dont like pushing pf. you in no way are taking the pot there. yes, you get it all in on the flop, no matter how much it sucks, he might have 87 and u have nuts. also, if he even thinks about checking, you have a great way to be back at 1100 chips by firing the flop. anyways, just some food for thought. holla

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OK, I agree with this second statement, in that I would also check pf, and jam it in on the flop, hoping it gets HU. But in this situation, SB leads, and there's a good chance that the other stack could call anyway.

In this situation, IMO, calling postflop is not more correct than folding and hoping to survive on life support. This situation only makes you think that pushing preflop would have been better.

[raptor517]

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actually, my response insinuates nothing, and if anything, it insinuates i push. do you see why? ok ill break it down. i said that its different than the AQ hand. that means, theres a big difference somewhere. that big difference is in the 1 in 230582093580923598235 part. with the AQ hand, i think its much closer to 1/4, making a push correct boyond a shadow of a doubt. however, again, ill reiterate, that if you know hes calling, its incorrect to push pf. /endhijack.

ok, im an idiot, and dont really wanna delete what i just wrote because i need to pound it in, so leave that for the other thread. in response to this post, with the 79 hand, i dont like pushing pf. you in no way are taking the pot there. yes, you get it all in on the flop, no matter how much it sucks, he might have 87 and u have nuts. also, if he even thinks about checking, you have a great way to be back at 1100 chips by firing the flop. anyways, just some food for thought. holla

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OK, I agree with this second statement, in that I would also check pf, and jam it in on the flop, hoping it gets HU. But in this situation, SB leads, and there's a good chance that the other stack could call anyway.

In this situation, IMO, calling postflop is not more correct than folding and hoping to survive on life support. This situation only makes you think that pushing preflop would have been better.

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its already heads up far as i can tell.. and there is no one else who would call.. holla

[Scuba Chuck]

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actually, my response insinuates nothing, and if anything, it insinuates i push. do you see why? ok ill break it down. i said that its different than the AQ hand. that means, theres a big difference somewhere. that big difference is in the 1 in 230582093580923598235 part. with the AQ hand, i think its much closer to 1/4, making a push correct boyond a shadow of a doubt. however, again, ill reiterate, that if you know hes calling, its incorrect to push pf. /endhijack.

ok, im an idiot, and dont really wanna delete what i just wrote because i need to pound it in, so leave that for the other thread. in response to this post, with the 79 hand, i dont like pushing pf. you in no way are taking the pot there. yes, you get it all in on the flop, no matter how much it sucks, he might have 87 and u have nuts. also, if he even thinks about checking, you have a great way to be back at 1100 chips by firing the flop. anyways, just some food for thought. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I agree with this second statement, in that I would also check pf, and jam it in on the flop, hoping it gets HU. But in this situation, SB leads, and there's a good chance that the other stack could call anyway.

In this situation, IMO, calling postflop is not more correct than folding and hoping to survive on life support. This situation only makes you think that pushing preflop would have been better.

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its already heads up far as i can tell.. and there is no one else who would call.. holla

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My bad. Misread OP. OK, I see no benefit to checking preflop. You don't have FE, you don't have position, you got a squat hand. Give yourself the best odds at the best time. The only reason not to push pf, is that you are willing to fold if you completely whiff on the flop.

[raptor517]

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actually, my response insinuates nothing, and if anything, it insinuates i push. do you see why? ok ill break it down. i said that its different than the AQ hand. that means, theres a big difference somewhere. that big difference is in the 1 in 230582093580923598235 part. with the AQ hand, i think its much closer to 1/4, making a push correct boyond a shadow of a doubt. however, again, ill reiterate, that if you know hes calling, its incorrect to push pf. /endhijack.

ok, im an idiot, and dont really wanna delete what i just wrote because i need to pound it in, so leave that for the other thread. in response to this post, with the 79 hand, i dont like pushing pf. you in no way are taking the pot there. yes, you get it all in on the flop, no matter how much it sucks, he might have 87 and u have nuts. also, if he even thinks about checking, you have a great way to be back at 1100 chips by firing the flop. anyways, just some food for thought. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I agree with this second statement, in that I would also check pf, and jam it in on the flop, hoping it gets HU. But in this situation, SB leads, and there's a good chance that the other stack could call anyway.

In this situation, IMO, calling postflop is not more correct than folding and hoping to survive on life support. This situation only makes you think that pushing preflop would have been better.

[/ QUOTE ]

its already heads up far as i can tell.. and there is no one else who would call.. holla

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My bad. Misread OP. OK, I see no benefit to checking preflop. You don't have FE, you don't have position, you got a squat hand. Give yourself the best odds at the best time. The only reason not to push pf, is that you are willing to fold if you completely whiff on the flop.

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i mean, i cant even see how you can say you dont have any fold equity, but say to push preflop. that is just ludicrous. you DO have plenty of fold equity on the flop if its checked to you, and hes calling a shove pf either way. this is a no brainer check/call flop bet/shove flop check. its not even really debateable. holla

[Shilly]

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The only reason not to push pf, is that you are willing to fold if you completely whiff on the flop.

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I don't see this as the only reason. You can gain a little bit of fold equity (however small it may be) by checking and pushing the flop if he checks to you.

[Shilly]

How you can reply so fast while 20-tabling is amazing.

[Nicholasp27]

if you fold, u have 300 chips left

if you call and win, you'll have 1100, if you call and lose you'll have 0

so 300/1100=.2727

if you think your hand has >27% chance to win after the flop, then call...if not, fold

i know there is gambler's ruin, but you have <1bb if you fold this hand...

even if you fold and win the next hand hu, then you have 600 and have to win another hu

the odds of that are 1/2*1/2=1/4

so 25% chance of getting to 1100 if you fold...but they are actually smaller than that because someone else with a good hand may also get in the pot by choice, thus not with a random hand, which would make your odds of winning the hands even smaller, even if you would triple up if you get lucky

[Nicholasp27]

the benefit of checking pf is similiar to the benefit of a sit-n-go

if u think he's more likely to fold to a check/push than a pf push, then check pf...if u think he's more likely to fold to a pf push, then push pf

personally, i think the check/push has the greatest chance (tho very minute) of him folding, so i'd check then shove em in/call him

[raptor517]

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How you can reply so fast while 20-tabling is amazing.

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im in class. im not playing. holla

[Nicholasp27]

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How you can reply so fast while 20-tabling is amazing.

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im in class. im not playing. holla

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in class is the best time to play

[raptor517]

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How you can reply so fast while 20-tabling is amazing.

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im in class. im not playing. holla

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in class is the best time to play

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not really. teachers have this ability to walk around the class, and see me playing poker, and kick me out and fail me. holla

[Nicholasp27]

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How you can reply so fast while 20-tabling is amazing.

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im in class. im not playing. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

in class is the best time to play

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not really. teachers have this ability to walk around the class, and see me playing poker, and kick me out and fail me. holla

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change teachers/classes/schools

[raptor517]

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How you can reply so fast while 20-tabling is amazing.

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im in class. im not playing. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

in class is the best time to play

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not really. teachers have this ability to walk around the class, and see me playing poker, and kick me out and fail me. holla

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change teachers/classes/schools

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free tuition is nice, no reason to change that.. also i regged for classes all of 2 days before they started. at least i get to be on the internet in class. works for me. holla

[adanthar]

Change classes anyway, if your teachers are walking around the class it smacks too much of high school. holla.