65s semibluff turn... What about the river?

[Aaron W.]

Both villains are pretty new to the table (maybe 7-10 hands). I haven't seen enough to have a sense of them, but they aren't rocks and aren't psychos.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, Button checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

River: (3.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

I improved... I guess...

[milesdyson]

i'm voting check/fold.

[gharp]

Back at Paradise already?

I'm thinking check/call. Your hand beats a bluff, and you'll see that just enough.

[tyler_cracker]

I vote bet/fold.

If you're going to call 1 bet here, you may as well bet yourself, as you can easily fold to a raise, and maybe you'll fold out a 9/88/77/66. A 2 or 33/44 might call, but will not bet.

The pot is small, so maybe it's not worth risking 1 to win 3.5 or 4.5, but i do think we're good here 1 in 3 times.

Ok, now who votes bet/call?

[TStoneMBD]

check fold unless villain is loose enough to chase a gutshot there. then its check-call.

[Shillx]

Obviously we check here. I've thought about this situation a ton and it seems like there aren't any real game theory concepts to apply here without reads. It is just like a payoff chart that would look something like (take a look if you want to think about game theory and how it applies to poker)...

*Y o u (1st number)
H (5,5) (0,7) (3,1)
i (2,3) (7,1) (2,2)
m (2,4) (4,2) (2,2)

Against a rational person you would select column 1. Against an idiot you would pick comumn 2. Against someone who plays randomly you would also select column 2 (but for different reasons). Against a good player you are totally screwed here. You have to mix up your plays between C1 and C2 but you will always be taking the worst of it.

The same is true with your hand:

Rational player - Check/fold
Bad player - Check/call
Random player - Check/call
Good player - You are screwed since he will be bluffing at a proper ratio. It doesn't matter what you do but he will always come out ahead since you will sometimes payoff his winners and/or fold to his bluffs. So we need to know who the villian is to give you a good answer here.

Brad

[TomBrooks]

Your OOP. Bad spot. No good way to play it. Probably not worth another bet. Button might have a nine or a Queen or something else better than a pair of fives, but who knows?

[SlantNGo]

I don't see a problem with either a check/fold or a check/call.

Why would bet/fold to a raise be a bad idea?

[MrWookie47]

Because if you're called, you're almost certainly losing. You're also not folding any better hands that have made it this far. When you check, you can either induce a bluff or you can fold and save some money.

[Redd]

I'm only loosely familiar with game theory (ie, I read/understood prisoner's dilemma payoff charts in ECON204). What do the rows and columns represent here?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Both villains are pretty new to the table (maybe 7-10 hands). I haven't seen enough to have a sense of them, but they aren't rocks and aren't psychos.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, Button checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

River: (3.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

I improved... I guess...

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet it and lost to A9o.

But after I bet it, I thought about something that I hadn't thought about in a while. A bet is right if it's a total brick (pure bluff can knock out whatever missed draws there were, saving me a pot -- although it's a small one and the bluff value is diminished). A bet is right if I hit my hand (for value). But with a sub-mediocre hand like this, betting is bad.

Against an unknown player here, I don't like to check-call. The pot isn't big enough to justify trying to pick off a bluff when you have little reason to suspect one might be coming. The best play here is probably check-fold.

Check-fold &gt; bet-fold &gt; check-call &gt;&gt; bet-call

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Back at Paradise already?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm bouncing between Party $.50/1 brainless 3-tabling hold'em for stud bankroll-building and Paradise $1/2 focused 5-max to get better.

[ QUOTE ]
But after I bet it, I thought about something that I hadn't thought about in a while. A bet is right if it's a total brick (pure bluff can knock out whatever missed draws there were, saving me a pot -- although it's a small one and the bluff value is diminished). A bet is right if I hit my hand (for value). But with a sub-mediocre hand like this, betting is bad

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are right. The fact that you have now have some showdown value means you already beat the hands that you would normally expect to bluff out. If the pot were bigger, b/c I think you have enough of a chance to pick off a bluff, I go for check/call. Here I go check/fold.

I have been kind of stuck on these sort of plays myself. Are stabbing at these small, 3-way pots even worthwhile? You are putting in $1 to win $1.5 ... it seems like micro-limit players don't fold enough to make this play profitable ...

I like it here, b/c you a fair amount of FE I think, and you will likely pick up one more bet if you improve. If you're going to bet the river in this small pot then I think it is no good.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been kind of stuck on these sort of plays myself. Are stabbing at these small, 3-way pots even worthwhile? You are putting in $1 to win $1.5 ... it seems like micro-limit players don't fold enough to make this play profitable ...

[/ QUOTE ]

You *CAN* stab at pots, but you need to know *WHY* you're stabbing at pots. A bet here can be one of two things:

1) Value bet
2) Bluff

If it's one or the other, it tends to be worth a bet. But if it's neither (as in this case), it tends *NOT* to be worth a bet.

Being able to put villains on a hand range is crucial for bluffing, as well as knowing how weak of a hand they would call. If they call with lots of hands (meaning bottom pair, ace-high), your bluffing equity drops. You should use the previous action to clue you in on what he has. Also, heads up is much much much better than 3-way.

I think the bluff here is profitable (assume the river bricked) because the turn brought two types of draws (flush/gutshot), and this increases the number of hands villain might be hanging around with.

Suppose the turn is 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (so that my turn bet is a protection bet) and I got called. If the river bricks again (8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif), I'm very inclined to check-fold the river because villain will likely have a pair of 9s or a pocket pair better than 5s.

[Felipe]

i'm not calling anything..I'm bet/folding to a raise or check folding. Who cares. what a shi+y hand. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif