odds?

[marellano]

Hi folks. New to Holdem and would like to clear up a question concerning drawing odds after the flop. When you count unseen cards, does that mean only the unseen cards still in the deck or all unseen cards even those that are being held by opponents? Thanks in advance for your help. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[rayrns]

After the flop you can account for 5 cards. Your pocket and the flop. Consider all the other cards to be still in the deck. 47 unseen cards for the turn. 46 cards when you go for the river. If you need help in figuring the odds, I would suggest reading the archived section for beginners. Everything should get answered in there. Or any of the better books on holdem.

[Louie Landale]

Consider this: you have 22 and are wondering if you will flop a 2. Nobody else has a hand so your chances are based on getting a 2 flopping 3 cards of the 50 unseen cards.

Basically you are wondering "what's the chances a 2 is one of the top 3 cards on the deck". Well, that's the same chances as "what's the chances a 2 is one of the last 3 cards in the deck", or "what's the chances a 2 is one of the 15th-17th cards from the top of the deck". Now lets deal out 7 other hands of 2-cards each around the table. The chances there is a 2 in the NEXT three cards on the deck is the same as the previous chances (the "flop" is the 15th-17th cards from the top...).

So, if you have NO information about the opponent's holding these are clearly still "unseen cards still in the deck". If you have perfect information, such as you see the cards, then you can take them from the deck.

Now I'm claiming the following: you usually have only a little information about the opponent's holding; such as they "play more high cards than low cards". It turns out that this information usually has little affect on your "chances" so you might as well ignore it.

Example: if its raised and reraised you can pretty much figure that those 4 cards do NOT contain a 2, so your chances of snagging a 2 are out of 46 unseen cards rather than 50. That doesn't change your chances much.

- Louie