AKs Value raise the river?

1/2 game at poker room, 10 handed, no reads.

Hero is CO+1 and is dealt A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif

Preflop

UTG limps and it is folded to hero who raises. The big blind three bets, UTG calls, and hero caps. Everyone calls. Pretty standard I'm thinking so far.

Flop

K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB bets out, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, UTG calls, Hero calls

Is the 3 bet my only play here? Folding is obviously out of the question, and I don't like the idea of going into call down mode just yet, especially when it's quite likely I have the best hand. I think by 3-betting this I force my opponents to define their hands to a certain extent. When BB caps I think there's a good chance I'm beat, but let's see what happens on the turn.

Turn

3/images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls

Picked up flush draw, and UTG has slowed down.

River

10 /images/graemlins/club.gif

BB bets, UTG calls, Hero ????

Is this river worth a value raise? The BB hasn't slowed down yet, so I think it's not unreasonable to think there's a good chance he has KK, 99 or something of that nature. I also thought he could have AK, AA, maybe KQ or a weaker king if he's a complete maniac. The other factor I considered in all of this was UTG padding the pot with what is almost certainly a weaker hand, so even instead of the old risk two bets to win one, I'm risking two bets to win two. Easy raise, or just a call?

[DCWildcat]

Any reads? Those would be nice

[Isura]

OMG, you have the nuts and 2 people have already put money in on the river....


Edit: I'm a donk, didn't read the paired board. This is more interesting.

[istewart]

AA - 3
KK - 1
99 - 3
AK - 6
KQ - I'll weight this down to 2 given the heavy action even though there are 8

Ahead: 9
Behind: 4

This doesn't even include KQ. Plus you have good overlay on your raise 3-way. Raise.

I think it's close, and as you have no reads it depends on your default characterization of 1/2 opponents at PokerRoom. I play at Party and I'm definitely raising this as AA, KK, and AK are all played like this, and KK is far less likely. Plus at Party you have the 10% maniac donk factor where this guy could turn over something comepletly bizzare.

[DCWildcat]

Raise, call a 3-bet, watch him turn over AA, smile.

[Weatherhead03]

Only hand that I can see capping the flop that you are behind is KK. Theres only one hand that can be made with that so i'd take my chances and raise it up.

Sorry guys, 4 tabling+no poker tracker=no reads. Isura, I didn't have the nuts, the board was paired, and given the preflop and flop action, I don't feel like it was entirely unreasonable to think somebody might have had a boat.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't feel like it was entirely unreasonable to think somebody might have had a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's not unreasonable. The question is what % of the time do you think you're good here. Like you said you are likely risking two bets to gain two. So do you think you're good >50% of the time? I say probably yes but that's at Party 1/2 don't know how PokerRoom plays.

BTW Can you use PokerAce or Gametime with PokerRoom?

[SoftcoreRevolt]

I definately raise here, KK is just so insanely unlikely now that I'd almost debate a cap if BB 3 bet. But that's probably a bit too nuts, so let's just raise here.

[hemstock]

Easy raise

Thanks for the replies everyone. Maybe I'm being too results oriented in my thinking here. In the actual hand I thought for a while and decided to raise. The BB 3 bet, SB called, and I called. BB show 99, and SB shows KK! Did not see that one coming from SB. I ended up having the third best hand. Seems like I made the right play though, which is what matters I guess.

[milesdyson]

did you type that out wrong? doesn't appear that sb is in the hand, and if he is you don't show him raising preflop. he also only called the river 3-bet with the 2nd nuts?

I think that's what the exclamation point is all about.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

Remember to redeem your Sklansky buck, if you collect 10 you can get the fantastic David Sklansky Bobble Head, and if you get 100 you can exchange it for a Nobel Prize.

[milesdyson]

look at the hand - sb isn't in it.

sorry, for some reason I typed SB when I meant to type UTG.