Don't Get 4th! $109

[Jman28]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button (t3730)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t2670)</font>
BB (t1365)
UTG (t2235)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1100</font>, Hero ??

[Ogre]

i push here pretty easily

[johnnybeef]

this is highly player dependent, but my standard move is to fold.

[Ogre]

assuming he has a brain he will be raising tons on hands on the button on the bubble. and you beat of coinflip alot of them

[ace_in_the_hole]

I'm pretty sure you're looking at 77-AA. I fold and wait till I can be the aggresor, I don;t think he can fold to your push.

[Chaostracize]

Easy easy easy fold.

[Ogre]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure you're looking at 77-AA. I fold and wait till I can be the aggresor, I don;t think he can fold to your push.

[/ QUOTE ]

As the bigstack the button should be raising any Ace here

[Chaostracize]

As bigstack he should be raising almost any two and as second biggest stack he should be folding almost any two.

[ilya]

I fold unless I play with the raiser a lot and know he's a good player who knows my pushing range will be very narrow here. I haven't done the math on how often you should optimally push with hands outside the range he expects, but you might as well randomize by choosing your extra pushes only from big cards.
I guess I might also push if he's some rare sort of silly person who'll raise with lots of hands but won't make pot-odds calls if re-raised.

In short against an unknown (i.e. vast majority of the time) I would always fold.

[Ogre]

[ QUOTE ]
As bigstack he should be raising almost any two

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take my chances pushing against a random hand with AQ.

this is read dependant though because most players dont play the bubble correctly

[curtains]

My normal play is to fold here. Its only 1500 more for him to call, which would be a disaster if he has anything but Ax or KQ.

[Chaostracize]

Just because you're probably favorite, does not mean you want to battle on the bubble. Not here.

[Jman28]

Anyone call and lead the flop?

I don't wanna call in a stop-n-go because you don't close the action.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]

My normal play is to fold here. Its only 1500 more for him to call, which would be a disaster if he has anything but Ax or KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Curtains, what hands are you making a stand with here?

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button (t3730)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t2670)</font>
BB (t1365)
UTG (t2235)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1100</font>, Hero ??

[/ QUOTE ]

If in the above hand, the unknown villain had, say, K9o, and I pushed, how often is he calling the push?

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure you're looking at 77-AA. I fold and wait till I can be the aggresor, I don;t think he can fold to your push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this read come from the right or the left side of your ass? I'm sorry, that sounded dick. But seriously, why do you put Villain on such a tight tight range?

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]

My normal play is to fold here. Its only 1500 more for him to call, which would be a disaster if he has anything but Ax or KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we content with folding into second here? I think pushing in this spot will decrease your 1sts and increase your firsts (and 4ths by some too, obviously).

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone call and lead the flop?

I don't wanna call in a stop-n-go because you don't close the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

If i wanted to play here, I'd stop-n-go. I probably just fold though.

[Unarmed]

Re: SNGing

Say you dump me in this spot with no read, and button raises to 1100. He's either a) an idiot on a stunned steal attempt, or b) a semi-intelligent player with an absolute monster. If a) you have FE pre-flop so push. If b) you're f*cked either way so push.

[raptor517]

sheesh. a 109 eh. theres a lot of donkeyballs in the 109s. meaning, people will in fact fold getting 3 to 1, because they dont wanna get knocked down to 1k chips. if i think there is even a slight chance hes folding, im shoving this all day. if i think theres zero chance hes folding.. its a lot closer, but ill still shove it most times. holla

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Re: SNGing

Say you dump me in this spot with no read, and button raises to 1100. He's either a) an idiot on a stunned steal attempt, or b) a semi-intelligent player with an absolute monster. If a) you have FE pre-flop so push. If b) you're f*cked either way so push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that breaking it down into those two possibilities is a bit simplistic.

Also, I don't think I have much FE preflop. If I push, he has to call ~1500 with to win ~3900. I don't feel like he's folding.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
sheesh. a 109 eh. theres a lot of donkeyballs in the 109s. meaning, people will in fact fold getting 3 to 1, because they dont wanna get knocked down to 1k chips. if i think there is even a slight chance hes folding, im shoving this all day. if i think theres zero chance hes folding.. its a lot closer, but ill still shove it most times. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

so are you saying you're willing to take the big $EV hit on this hand because you feel like you need to make a stand?

[Matt R.]

With no reads I would push, but it's really close. I tend to err on the side of aggression though, and the 1550 in the pot looks really nice to me. If he seems even slightly on the tight side though, I would fold without a second thought. So, it's pretty difficult for me to say what I would do without knowing the player at all.

[deathpotato]

What do you feel villain's range is here?

[Matt R.]

Just curious, what's the $EV hit assuming he will always call? Also, from his perspective, I think there's some merit in preserving chips here if he's raising with trash regardless of pot odds he's getting. I don't think you can say he will ALWAYS call if he's raising often. 2600 chips is a heckuva lot better than 1100 in this scenario for villain.

Anyway, do you know the ICM $EV numbers or are you just estimating?

[ezmogee]

His hand is likely weaker than yours because of his 3.5x BB raise. Were he looking to get action and bust a smaller stack, he'd more than likely raise it 2.5x or a simple 3x to 900.

The problem here is that with 1100 invested he's getting nearly 3:1 to call your allin. It's possible he cuts his losses and folds, but with that much in, he's probably calling you with 44. And why go to the coinflip when you're in such good shape?

I do think it's fairly read dependent, but my inclination here would be to fold. ESPECIALLY, if you know you can outplay the other two shorter stacks.

[Matt R.]

[ QUOTE ]
His hand is likely weaker than yours because of his 3.5x BB raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is necessarily true. I would expect to see a middle pair a lot with this size raise, as he doesn't really want someone to come over the top of him -- his hand is likely ahead, but not by enough to warrant risking so much of his stack. The raise size could just be to maximize his FE -- i.e. he's letting the blinds know he will call if re-raised.

But... he could just as easily have A8-AJ or KQ/KJ and be making the same raise. I would just expect to see middle pairs a lot too (and probably slightly more likely). That's why I think it's really difficult to make a decision in this instance with no reads on the player.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
assuming he has a brain he will be raising tons on hands on the button on the bubble. and you beat of coinflip alot of them

[/ QUOTE ]

when you get yourself in a coinflip with stacks that are shorter than you present, you cost yourself money in the long run.

[raaustge]

Why such a tight range? If hes smart he knows you are going to fold most hands because you dont want to mess with a big stack with those two other stacks still hanging around. He should be raising alot right?
This is really read dependent but if he is somewhat loose and has a big range of hands you put him on, would this be a good time to make a stand and increase your chips significantly and go for 1st place. You cant guarantee a fold into the money. What if short stack doubles up? Just a thought but i think that range is way too tight

[brimstone1]

It's all the "he should" and "you should" mentality that makes this a clear push for me, especially if you have seen him being aggressive as the leader.
You're pushing for value here, I'd put him on any two face cards, or even broadway+[censored] offsuit.

Of course he's going to turn over 77-AA, AK here sometimes. But I'm fairly sure thats not going to be the case 'most' of the time, which is what counts in the end, isnt it?

Somebody set me straight if I'm too off course please? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Just curious, what's the $EV hit assuming he will always call? Also, from his perspective, I think there's some merit in preserving chips here if he's raising with trash regardless of pot odds he's getting. I don't think you can say he will ALWAYS call if he's raising often. 2600 chips is a heckuva lot better than 1100 in this scenario for villain.

Anyway, do you know the ICM $EV numbers or are you just estimating?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just half-remembering from having done calculations for similar situations before. It could be that I'm wrong and there is a Villain raising range for which pushing is profitable even if Villain always calls.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sheesh. a 109 eh. theres a lot of donkeyballs in the 109s. meaning, people will in fact fold getting 3 to 1, because they dont wanna get knocked down to 1k chips. if i think there is even a slight chance hes folding, im shoving this all day. if i think theres zero chance hes folding.. its a lot closer, but ill still shove it most times. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

so are you saying you're willing to take the big $EV hit on this hand because you feel like you need to make a stand?

[/ QUOTE ]

im not taking a big ev hit shoving with this hand. its a marginal situation, but not hugely -ev, if at all.. especially because, even thought YOU know its wrong, and YOU would never fold, people in the 109s still will. holla

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just curious, what's the $EV hit assuming he will always call? Also, from his perspective, I think there's some merit in preserving chips here if he's raising with trash regardless of pot odds he's getting. I don't think you can say he will ALWAYS call if he's raising often. 2600 chips is a heckuva lot better than 1100 in this scenario for villain.

Anyway, do you know the ICM $EV numbers or are you just estimating?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just half-remembering from having done calculations for similar situations before. It could be that I'm wrong and there is a Villain raising range for which pushing is profitable even if Villain always calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You were right. If the villain calls the push everytime, a push is terrible. This is true for any possible range (unless his range is like, AT and Q2 only).

[psyduck]

<font color="blue"> This wasn't a minraise. This was almost a 4X raise. He's going to call when you push.

I fold. </font>

[SCfuji]

i think having the bb left to act sucks.

is a stop and go terrible here?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sheesh. a 109 eh. theres a lot of donkeyballs in the 109s. meaning, people will in fact fold getting 3 to 1, because they dont wanna get knocked down to 1k chips. if i think there is even a slight chance hes folding, im shoving this all day. if i think theres zero chance hes folding.. its a lot closer, but ill still shove it most times. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

so are you saying you're willing to take the big $EV hit on this hand because you feel like you need to make a stand?

[/ QUOTE ]

im not taking a big ev hit shoving with this hand. its a marginal situation, but not hugely -ev, if at all.. especially because, even thought YOU know its wrong, and YOU would never fold, people in the 109s still will. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

right. i was responding to the 2nd part of your post, where you said you still push most times even if you somehow KNOW Villain will always call. here's a question tho, would you still push if you somehow KNEW you'd never play with Villain again?

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
i think having the bb left to act sucks.

is a stop and go terrible here?

[/ QUOTE ]

not really, but yer not in the bb, so u got action after you. im surprised more people havent looked at that idea. you ahve the bb outchipped, so.. i duno, stop and go COULD work. this situation is quite dicey. obviously if you push and big stack calls every time its a -ev play. what everyone seems to forget, no matter how much u know you will call, they still fold incorrectly, hence the edge you have. holla

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

My normal play is to fold here. Its only 1500 more for him to call, which would be a disaster if he has anything but Ax or KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we content with folding into second here? I think pushing in this spot will decrease your 1sts and increase your firsts (and 4ths by some too, obviously).

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding into second?? What does me folding AQo in a -EV situation have to do with "folding into second"? I'm making this play on it's own merit, not making a strategy for the rest of the tournament.

Also it's very clear that moving allin will result in more 1sts and more 4ths (as would pushing with 98s). The question is whether or not it's worth it. I don't think it is here.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

My normal play is to fold here. Its only 1500 more for him to call, which would be a disaster if he has anything but Ax or KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Curtains, what hands are you making a stand with here?

[/ QUOTE ]


Not very many...but AQo is surely one of the strongest hands Ill fold.

[Jman28]

I chose to call, and either hope the BB comes along, or push any non-monster flop.

Flop 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I push. He calls with K /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif and I'm gone.

[Matt R.]

Question to all those that say it would be a mistake for villain to fold getting ~2.5:1 odds. Would you call here with K9o (knowing that SB is probably pushing AQo at the BARE minimum) when losing knocks you down to 1100 chips and puts you at the short stack?

I think pot odds are less important here than the fact that you ARE going to lose and turn from comfortable in chips to the short stack a good 75%+ of the time.

Obviously it probably was a mistake raising so big with K9o in the first place. But, after he makes the raise, I still think he folds to a push from SB (with SB's dangerous stack) a good portion of the time holding K9o.

As a side note -- who thinks it would be a mistake for villain to fold here? I think I would fold -- but I wouldn't make the 1100 chip raise either so I guess I wouldn't put myself in this situation.

[Matt R.]

Snarf.

[Matt R.]

Oh, and that's not really the range I'm putting him on. I just feel those hands are more likely than other hands he could be raising with given the size of the raise. i.e. I think the raise will usually be smaller from a 'typical' player with a hand like K9o. Just a rough guess though.

[Sykes]

I don't get why there is 30+ posts here. It's an easy push if you like money and it's not even close. Big stack is doing this with a wide range of hands and I definately don't mind getting called by Kx/Ax.

I play for first. You could still fold this and not even finish in the money.

Also, I find it surprising that one of the best sng posters here (curtains) is being this weak-tight.

[deathpotato]

You do mind getting called by Kx, as well as any other hand that isn't A2-AJ or Q2-QJ, because you lose equity when that happens. The only way pushing can be profitable is if the button will fold semi-regularly to your push. I will post the math if you want.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
You do mind getting called by Kx, as well as any other hand that isn't A2-AJ or Q2-QJ, because you lose equity when that happens. The only way pushing can be profitable is if the button will fold semi-regularly to your push. I will post the math if you want.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please do.

I like having 5000+ chips on the bubble where it will get me 2nd a lot of times instead of 3rd.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get why there is 30+ posts here. It's an easy push if you like money and it's not even close. Big stack is doing this with a wide range of hands and I definately don't mind getting called by Kx/Ax.

I play for first. You could still fold this and not even finish in the money.

Also, I find it surprising that one of the best sng posters here (curtains) is being this weak-tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

When a player who knows more than you about poker asserts that a play is right, and you disagree, it would be wise to take a second look at the play you support.

[curtains]

Sorry its hard to argue with your well thought arguments of "I play for first" and "You could fold this and not finish in the money"

There is something called math that I use to make such decisions. If your opponent will call your allin the majority of the time, then moving allin is a terrible play which will cost you quite a sum of money. Thank you, but Im going to continue playing "weak tight".

I hate the ignorant usage of the term weak tight. It pisses me off to no end, and when someone uses it on me in an absurd situation I can't help but be an [censored].

I'm not going to supply the math involved here, but just run the situation on sit and go power tools and it becomes pretty obvious that you should fold. The only time it's a reasonable play is when you suspect your opponent will fold a decent % of the time, and I am by no means confident enough to expect that here.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You do mind getting called by Kx, as well as any other hand that isn't A2-AJ or Q2-QJ, because you lose equity when that happens. The only way pushing can be profitable is if the button will fold semi-regularly to your push. I will post the math if you want.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please do.

I like having 5000+ chips on the bubble where it will get me 2nd a lot of times instead of 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

You shouldn't have offered. Now you gotta do it. That math is really boring.

[curtains]

Another very interesting note about the hand. Pushing is only marginally +ev if you know your opponent has A2s and will call you. (Its +.5% EV). Whereas if you know your opponent has any 2 cards and will call you, it becomes (-1.4% EV)

[Jman28]

Curtains, how do you feel about the "stop-n-go" (in quotes because you dont close the action)?

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Another very interesting note about the hand. Pushing is only marginally +ev if you know your opponent has A2s and will call you. (Its +.5% EV). Whereas if you know your opponent has any 2 cards and will call you, it becomes (-1.4% EV)

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I totally want to see the math in this. Winning this hand easily gives you a 3rd, and a good chance at winning.

I thought winning SNGs was how you make money at them.

[deathpotato]

Stacks if you and BB fold:
4180 $EV = .3416
2520 (HERO) $EV = .2682
2235 $EV = .2505
1065 $EV = .1396

AQo beats K2o ~.656 of the time

So, .656 of the time the stacks will look like:
5640 (HERO) $EV = .3938
2235 $EV = .2713
1065 $EV = .1678
1060 $EV = .1671

And .344 of the time the stacks will look like this:
6700 $EV = .4283
2235 $EV = .3151
1065 $EV = .2566
0 (HERO) $EV = 0

.656*.3938=~.2583

.2682-.2583 = .0099

Congratulations, getting all in against K2 cost you about $10.

And just for fun:

AQo beats 32o about .661 of the time.

.661*.3938 = ~.2603

.2682-.2603 = .0079

Even getting all in against 32o lost you about $8!

I sure hope I don't play SNGs for a living, with all these fundamental misconceptions that I have.

[Sykes]

Um, And what about the fact that if you call and win you're more likely to win 2.5x 3rd place payout. And the fact that you also have a chance of bubbling out.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]

Curtains, how do you feel about the "stop-n-go" (in quotes because you dont close the action)?


[/ QUOTE ]

I would just fold of course. Whether or not its better than pushing Im not sure. I'd rather try to figure that out in situations where I decide to play the hand.

[deathpotato]

[ QUOTE ]
Um, And what about the fact that if you call and win you're more likely to win 2.5x 3rd place payout. And the fact that you also have a chance of bubbling out.

[/ QUOTE ]I don't know what you're talking about, but hey:

ICM: Independent Chip Model – a mathematical model used to help determine prize share equity based on chip stacks.

This is what I used. Learn all about it here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2821605&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1)

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Um, And what about the fact that if you call and win you're more likely to win 2.5x 3rd place payout. And the fact that you also have a chance of bubbling out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, what about the fact that you still have pretty good chances of finishing 1st or 2nd by folding. It's not like we are just agreeing to a third place finish by folding.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Um, And what about the fact that if you call and win you're more likely to win 2.5x 3rd place payout. And the fact that you also have a chance of bubbling out.

[/ QUOTE ]

It'a all included in those numbers. You seem fairly clueless for someone who posted just a little while ago saying this to someone:

[ QUOTE ]

you just made a completely useless post.

I hope you don't play SNGs for a living.


[/ QUOTE ]

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Um, And what about the fact that if you call and win you're more likely to win 2.5x 3rd place payout. And the fact that you also have a chance of bubbling out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, what about the fact that you still have pretty good chances of finishing 1st or 2nd by folding. It's not like we are just agreeing to a third place finish by folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying really hard where you're going to find a better spot to put all your chips in and still have the same number of chips if you push here and double up.

Obviously you can still win, but I'm just saying it'll be a tad harder to do so.

Jman, I'm still learning. And my post is not totally useless as I was taught here that 1st place is much better for your ROI% than 3rd place.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]


Jman, I'm still learning. And my post is not totally useless as I was taught here that 1st place is much better for your ROI% than 3rd place.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no problem with people posting incorrect things. I don't like when they berate other posters for making mistakes (and for being correct in Curtains' case). A simple correction will suffice in most cases.

I'm being stupid cuz I just did the same thing to you, so, sorry. Just be nice. There is a lot of free information here on these boards. If you are open to it, you will learn much faster than if you are so sure of yourself that you dismiss the advice of expert players.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Jman, I'm still learning. And my post is not totally useless as I was taught here that 1st place is much better for your ROI% than 3rd place.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no problem with people posting incorrect things. I don't like when they berate other posters for making mistakes (and for being correct in Curtains' case). A simple correction will suffice in most cases.

I'm being stupid cuz I just did the same thing to you, so, sorry. Just be nice. There is a lot of free information here on these boards. If you are open to it, you will learn much faster than if you are so sure of yourself that you dismiss the advice of expert players.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry if I came off as a dick earlier. It's just the way I am. But yes, I agree that I can learn a lot from expert posters like curtains but what he is saying makes no sense from what I was taught here. Also, If you finish 3rd and only 3rd in 1/2 of the sngs you play, you're a losing player while still having an ITM of 50%.

And I have learned lots just by reading the forums.

[tigerite]

You "aim for first, settle for third" on the bubble, it's ITM when you push small edges to try to get the big prize, this has been discussed like a million times.

FWIW, it's read dependent here, sometimes a push will work, but not often. If he's been stealing the blinds a lot, and you really believe he will fold at least 25% of the time (probably more - not done the maths) then it's ok, but a fold is the "safer option".

[Pete H]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying really hard where you're going to find a better spot to put all your chips in and still have the same number of chips if you push here and double up.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you push with AQ here and K9 calls, you gain chips and K9 loses 'em, but you both lose money.

Only players who gain money in this situation are those who sit back and enjoy the battle of the big stacks.

[ QUOTE ]

And my post is not totally useless as I was taught here that 1st place is much better for your ROI% than 3rd place.


[/ QUOTE ]

But 4th place is the worst. 35% of the time you'll get $0 for your efforts if you push here.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying really hard where you're going to find a better spot to put all your chips in and still have the same number of chips if you push here and double up.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you push with AQ here and K9 calls, you gain chips and K9 loses 'em, but you both lose money.

Only players who gain money in this situation are those who sit back and enjoy the battle of the big stacks.

[ QUOTE ]

And my post is not totally useless as I was taught here that 1st place is much better for your ROI% than 3rd place.


[/ QUOTE ]

But 4th place is the worst. 35% of the time you'll get $0 for your efforts if you push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you'll get 3rd 60% of the time (that's being conservative, i'd put it at 63%) if you push and win

[tigerite]

Sykes, ICM allows for all this, by saying if you win your chance of winning is higher (and also 2nd, and 3rd - it is based on a sliding scale) so if ICM says fold, you fold. You're showing a real lack of understanding here.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Sykes, ICM allows for all this, by saying if you win your chance of winning is higher (and also 2nd, and 3rd - it is based on a sliding scale) so if ICM says fold, you fold. You're showing a real lack of understanding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're totally right. ICM is way above my head.

being serious here.

[The once and future king]

The problem is that ICM is a static reflection of $Expectation immediately after the act. It cant factor in the equity gained via subsequant effective skillfull play of the largest stack on the table. One is in a position to now leverage that stack to perhaps make up for the 10$ lost in the push.

This equity "perhaps" can not be mathmaticaly quanitified so easily as ICM and pushes so is ignored by those seeking easy simple and streamlined solutions.

Given that the intial raisor will fold some % of the time and the equity perhaps of my Big stack (which I can play very well) and the meta game consideration of the intial raiser remembering my defence and hence being more passive in relation to me in future games.

I PUSH YEHAAAAAAW. (Sometimes I fold though).

[tigerite]

By the way if you pushed and won, your $EV would go up to 39.4%. It's a more complicated situation this though because it's hard to model how often he folds. I'll attempt some maths on it later, maybe. If he calls every time you're screwed though. (Any two = $EV of -1.5%)

[Back In Black]

I F#&amp;%in push. This guy folds 10-20% of the time. People are stupid. That's all you need to know. Seriously.

[deathpotato]

Unless the two short stacks get into a fold-down war, you may have a fairly tough time getting the equity you need out of these stacks, with the 2nd stack on your right:

5640, 2235, 1065, 1060

The bubble will likely end within a few hands with these stacks.

As to whether pushing or folding is right, I think it is very read dependent, and my post was intended to show that getting all in against K2o is not an inherently good thing in this situation. Unless I know villain will fold quite frequently, I don't think I can push.

[The once and future king]

I will quite happily extract equity from the second stack when in the SB. With those two small stacks around he is likely to be very passive. No one wants to go from penthouse to outhouse.

[deathpotato]

Ah, I've made a mistake, the 2nd stack will actually be going into the BB next hand, with you on the button. Silly me, I actually will go to bed after this one. I think that you're right that you will be able to make up any EV loss from pushing by stealing here. I mistakenly thought the 2nd stack would be SB to your BB, which would make it a fair bit harder to steal.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
I F#&amp;%in push. This guy folds 10-20% of the time. People are stupid. That's all you need to know. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this deep analysis.
No, really, I do.

We need to stop saying, oh he's getting 3-1 so he'll call.
The truth is (and we've all seen it) people make that laydown all the time. If Villain has exactly K9, seriously, how often do people think he lays down?
He was on a steal and he got "caught" by the second biggest stack. If he folds he has 2600. If he calls he has 1000.
I think 10-20% is actually low.
Am I that far off?

DO NOT support your answer with math. Delve into the mind of a player who raises 1100 with K9o here. He has no plan. What will his reaction be when his hand gets caught in the cookie jar?

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
DO NOT support your answer with math. Delve into the mind of a player who raises 1100 with K9o here. He has no plan. What will his reaction be when his hand gets caught in the cookie jar?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming something resembling sanity in the villain here, when he raises to 1100 he is saying to everyone and himself "If someone pushes here I have to call". That is the only reason for the size of the raise.

Assuming absense of sanity, the raise to 1100 could mean anything and his reaction to a push we can't predict.

At the lower limits I see strange bet sizes all the time. And very often they will call despite their hands being caught in the cookie jar. They don't seem to care that their T8s isn't all that good of a hand.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I F#&amp;%in push. This guy folds 10-20% of the time. People are stupid. That's all you need to know. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this deep analysis.
No, really, I do.

We need to stop saying, oh he's getting 3-1 so he'll call.
The truth is (and we've all seen it) people make that laydown all the time. If Villain has exactly K9, seriously, how often do people think he lays down?
He was on a steal and he got "caught" by the second biggest stack. If he folds he has 2600. If he calls he has 1000.
I think 10-20% is actually low.
Am I that far off?

DO NOT support your answer with math. Delve into the mind of a player who raises 1100 with K9o here. He has no plan. What will his reaction be when his hand gets caught in the cookie jar?

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks unarmed. apparently everyone has been ignoring the last 240982485 posts i made in this thread. of COURSE its -ev if he calls every time with every hand. thats not even a question. however, in donk terms, donk sees 1600 chips being bet back at him as a RERAISE. OOOOOOOHHHHHHH, donk thinks damn, he reraised SIXTEEN hundred more, my hand is not the best here, kachink, into hte muck. this definitely happens way way way more than most of the people arguing in this thread thinks it does. in a 215, im not shoving. 109 on down, i will shove. holla

[ezmogee]

I really dont think hes folding K9 here. The type of player that makes that sort of raise with K9 doesn't mind calling another 1200 to see a showdown.

Once again, I'm not saying that I NEVER push AQ here. I do...but doing so is dependent on the type of table I'm at. If the table is hyper aggressive with every pot being opened like this, I push AQ in a heartbeat. Here, however, the problem is that the raiser is the big stack and with that much invested will almost certainly call with K9. After all, he will rationalize that you might have 88, etc.

[zambonidrivr]

i hate tressel right now

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
The type of player that makes that sort of raise with K9 doesn't mind calling another 1200 to see a showdown.


[/ QUOTE ]

its 1570, and you are wrong. hes EXACTLY the type of player that will fold K9 there. do you see why? holla

[pooh74]

Who's folding AK here?


I am folding AQ bTW.

[curtains]

It's okay I made the caveat over and over that if the button folds too often, then pushing is ok. I just wouldn't want to bank on that here, and judging exactly what % of the time the button will fold is quite difficult.

I like to remain cautious in such spots because I will be able to make better decisions later,instead of assuming the button will fold 30%+, because really I have no idea.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]

It's okay I made the caveat over and over that if the button folds too often, then pushing is ok. I just wouldn't want to bank on that here, and judging exactly what % of the time the button will fold is quite difficult.

I like to remain cautious in such spots because I will be able to make better decisions later,instead of assuming the button will fold 30%+, because really I have no idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea i def hear ya, and i humor either idea really, and dont really think either play is really bad or good. folding is certainly fine, dont get me wrong.. but from my experiences ive seen a lot of folds there, so i prefer a shove. holla

[lacky]

so, If I can play a perfect bubble situation well enough to make up .0099 in ev it's a positive play? Getting into this situation:

5640
2235
1065
1060

if you know how to play it definatly has value, so how do you message the math to determain the offseting value of that bubble situation?

Steve

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
so, If I can play a perfect bubble situation well enough to make up .0099 in ev it's a positive play? Getting into this situation:

5640
2235
1065
1060

if you know how to play it definatly has value, so how do you message the math to determain the offseting value of that bubble situation?

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

the math everyone is using accounts for current situation. no future hands. this is another aspect that should be viewed as well. if you call and win, you get into a VERY profitable bubble situation. nice post lacky. holla

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so, If I can play a perfect bubble situation well enough to make up .0099 in ev it's a positive play? Getting into this situation:

5640
2235
1065
1060

if you know how to play it definatly has value, so how do you message the math to determain the offseting value of that bubble situation?

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

the math everyone is using accounts for current situation. no future hands. this is another aspect that should be viewed as well. if you call and win, you get into a VERY profitable bubble situation. nice post lacky. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

this is what I've been saying all along. do you people all have me on ignore?

Also, if short stack had 1.5-2BB, This is an easy fold unless you have JJ+.

[Ogre]

[ QUOTE ]
Who's folding AK here?


I am folding AQ bTW.

[/ QUOTE ]

people who wear skirts

[Ogre]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The type of player that makes that sort of raise with K9 doesn't mind calling another 1200 to see a showdown.


[/ QUOTE ]

its 1570, and you are wrong. hes EXACTLY the type of player that will fold K9 there. do you see why? holla

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The type of player that makes that sort of raise with K9 doesn't mind calling another 1200 to see a showdown.


[/ QUOTE ]

its 1570, and you are wrong. hes EXACTLY the type of player that will fold K9 there. do you see why? holla

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[/ QUOTE ]

great double post there

[Ogre]

what are you talking about?

[Back In Black]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I F#&amp;%in push. This guy folds 10-20% of the time. People are stupid. That's all you need to know. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this deep analysis.
No, really, I do.

We need to stop saying, oh he's getting 3-1 so he'll call.
The truth is (and we've all seen it) people make that laydown all the time. If Villain has exactly K9, seriously, how often do people think he lays down?
He was on a steal and he got "caught" by the second biggest stack. If he folds he has 2600. If he calls he has 1000.
I think 10-20% is actually low.
Am I that far off?

DO NOT support your answer with math. Delve into the mind of a player who raises 1100 with K9o here. He has no plan. What will his reaction be when his hand gets caught in the cookie jar?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry. I was drunk when I posted this. After I posted this I realized I made a mistake. You are very right unarmed. I think this % is anywhere from 10-35 or 40%.

Honestly.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I F#&amp;%in push. This guy folds 10-20% of the time. People are stupid. That's all you need to know. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this deep analysis.
No, really, I do.

We need to stop saying, oh he's getting 3-1 so he'll call.
The truth is (and we've all seen it) people make that laydown all the time. If Villain has exactly K9, seriously, how often do people think he lays down?
He was on a steal and he got "caught" by the second biggest stack. If he folds he has 2600. If he calls he has 1000.
I think 10-20% is actually low.
Am I that far off?

DO NOT support your answer with math. Delve into the mind of a player who raises 1100 with K9o here. He has no plan. What will his reaction be when his hand gets caught in the cookie jar?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry. I was drunk when I posted this. After I posted this I realized I made a mistake. You are very right unarmed. I think this % is anywhere from 10-35 or 40%.

Honestly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you telling me that people at 109s are this stupid?

I don't fold this and I play $1-11's

[Back In Black]

I believe that many are this weak-tight, yes.

[microbet]

The math being used takes into account the equity position of your stack if you win.

Your position, I believe, is that people play more incorrectly than they should in that situation so your equity is higher than predicted. I think this is based on the idea that they fold too much.

Either that or they call too much.

[I'm going to make a slight cop-out and say I'm working right now so this isn't necessarily perfectly thought out, and will give it more thought if it is called for.]

[microbet]

Hmm, when doing the $EV calcs, does one need to take into account the mouse you smashed?

[Matt R.]

(Haven't read the responses to this post, but this is spot on)

Sorry if I'm repeating posts above me without reading them, but this is a great post. If you push and win this hand either through a showdown or by villain folding, you can move in with virutally any 2 the next hand (against most players) and the next hand, and the next hand... until someone picks up a monster or gets fed up with you and calls. You stand to win a LOT in blinds on average in the next several hands if you push and win this hand.

Also... I forget what the 'window' is exactly for ICM generally being accepted as a 'neutral' decision. Was it
-0.5% still MAY be a good push, or is it lower (more negative) than that? Obviously this is an estimate, but I remember seeing this # somewhere.

[Absalon]

does anyone else think the big stack was on a "pure steal"?
i cant see villain calling a push by hero especially since hero is the only one in the tournament that can cripple him. by betting out 1100 hes telling the big blind that its do or die for him if he calls. the villain probably bet 1100 because its a bet big enough to push hero off a marginal hand (9's,KJ,etc) but small enough to leave himself a healthy stack just in case hero wakes up with a monster and comes over the top.

i think villain folds to a push 30-40% of the time with Kx or ace rag since AK is a likely hand for hero. but then again what do i know, I dont play the 109s. just my 2 cents.

[lacky]

the math is taking into account your % of chips in play and using that to estamate your equity? Is that correct? If so it doesn't take into account that on average you should be able to menipulate the bubble situation to decrease the 2500 stack and grow your own. I have no idea how you would work that into the calculations though, other than to say if it's a close decision it needs to be considered.

BTW, I push, probably why 1st and 4th are my highest finishing positions, by lots.

Steve

[microbet]

ICM takes into account whenever you have a chip lead or not. It never takes into account whether you are better than your opponents. It doesn't do this when you start and are more than 30% ITM, nor when you are a middle short stack and don't give up and throw your chips away, nor when you are shorty on the bubble and notice that there is a bubble, nor when you are big stack on the bubble and pwn the middle stacks.

This is a complex issue and I certainly don't have it worked out, but my current thought is that the one situation listed where you opponent's mistakes are going to hurt you the most is when you are big stack trying to pwn and thus it is the least likely candidate for a situation where ICM undervalues your equity. (though perhaps it always undervalues your equity - in this case I think the aforementioned situation would not be the maximum undervalued)

[Degen]

before i read anything i'm gonna say

AUTO PUSH

[Double Down]

With a raise this big, I read it as he has a better than average hand but does not want to be reraised. A raise to 1100 from 300 won't mind if it goes heads up against a small stack all in, but it does not want a call nor a raise. I will see this play made a lot with ace rag or small pocket pair. It's correct to raise with these hands, yes? But wouldn't it be incorrect to call an all in from a large stack that would leave me at 1100 if I lost (and I probably would). Raising to 1100 feels like small pp, ace rag, or medium king, all of which would fold to a large all in.

Seeing as how the amount is close to the BB's stack, I see it as the button is saying, "Let me take on the small stack. I have a good enough hand to do it with." But it realizes its vulnerablility, so it doesn't want to be reraised. I see this play (and make it) a lot of the time, and in this situation, it will fold to a raise most of the time.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
With a raise this big, I read it as he has a better than average hand but does not want to be reraised. A raise to 1100 from 300 won't mind if it goes heads up against a small stack all in, but it does not want a call nor a raise. I will see this play made a lot with ace rag or small pocket pair. It's correct to raise with these hands, yes? But wouldn't it be incorrect to call an all in from a large stack that would leave me at 1100 if I lost (and I probably would). Raising to 1100 feels like small pp, ace rag, or medium king, all of which would fold to a large all in.

Seeing as how the amount is close to the BB's stack, I see it as the button is saying, "Let me take on the small stack. I have a good enough hand to do it with." But it realizes its vulnerablility, so it doesn't want to be reraised. I see this play (and make it) a lot of the time, and in this situation, it will fold to a raise most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

not to be rude.. but if you are making this play and folding to a push a lot, i would be hard pressed to believe you are a winning poker player at ANY game. im calling in that spot with 23o if i made it 1100 and he shoved. i would never make it 1100 there.. but thats not the point. the point is, you are getting 3 to 1 on a call, so any good player needs to.

the argument i have been making for calling is for JUST the peope like you that dont understand proper poker. they will fold that K9 or whatever or A7 or whatever to a push, making AQ a profitable shove here. holla

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Sykes, ICM allows for all this, by saying if you win your chance of winning is higher (and also 2nd, and 3rd - it is based on a sliding scale) so if ICM says fold, you fold. You're showing a real lack of understanding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i feel the need to point this out every once in a while: ICM is a strictly mathematical model that someone made up. it has not been tested empirically. there is no strong argument that it is correct.

it seems plausible enough and nobody has a better model, so we take it on faith that ICM is right (or at least take it as the base and try to adjust for obvious things that it's missing in a given spot, such as that the shorty will be all-in on the blind next hand).

[BadMongo]

To all those who are saying its wrong for the villian to fold to a push here, sorry, but you are wrong. Yes, he's getting over 2.5:1 on his call, but this is not a cash game. $EV calculations are as relevant for villian's call as they are for hero's push.

Instead of saying villian is a donk if he folds, let's actually look at some numbers. We know he will have t2630 if he folds, and using the ICM calculator, we therefore know that:

$EV Fold (t2630) = 0.2739

We also know that, if villian were to call, his EV could be calculated as follows:

$EV Call = [$EV(t6700) x W] + [$EV(t1060) x (1-W)] = [0.4283 x W] + [0.1671 x (1-W)]

where W is the chance he will win, and 1-W is the chance he will lose. For folding and calling to be a break even proposition, $EV Fold and $EV Call must be equal. Therefore, we can write:

$EV Fold = $EV call
0.2739 = [0.4283 x W] + [0.1671 x (1-W)]

which yeilds W = 0.4092

Thus, villian needs to be about 41% to win for calling to be correct. Now, there's no way to know for sure what the villian's range is, but I doubt it will be 41% to win against hero's pushing range here. Thus, it can certainly be correct for villian to fold to hero's push. If you are calling in villian's spot with trash like 32o you are making a big mistake.