Loose Flop Call? How much credit to give BDSD?

This is from a post in another forum:

Hero is in EP with Jc Jh.
SB seems to be a straight-forward player.

Preflop: Hero raises, MP calls, LP calls, SB raises. BB folds. Hero calls, MP calls, LP calls.

Flop: Ks Td 6h. Pot = 12.25 small bets

SB bets, Hero ?

-
You're given 13.25:1 odds on the flop, which justify calling with many draws. Here you have two outs with the Jacks and one OR one and one-half outs with the backdoor straight draw.

With only 3 outs (counting the BDSD as 1 out), you need close to 14:1 odds. But with 3.5 outs you need close to 13:1 odds.

Even if you only count the BDSD as 1 out, should you make a loose flop call here? Would the implied odds make that big a difference to justify the loose call?

[stuartharris]

First of all, I raise or fold. There's no way I call this with two people left to act. With the 3-bet preflop, followed by the bet-out on the flop and two people left, either of whom could very well have a King, I think I fold.

[Crimson]

Cap PF, Raise the Flop for a Freecard on the turn, get a player read and fold/chk/call river UI. At micro, people aren't very creative, if he bets into you again on the turn and you are UI, i'd probably fold.

[Arcturus]

Cap pre-flop.

If the player is straight-forward, wouldn't that mean that he has a monster holding like AA-KK-QQ-AK-AQ? Fold.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
Cap PF, Raise the Flop for a Freecard on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain has us beat the vast majority of the time here, maybe as much as 75%. If he's ahead he damn well knows it by virtue of us just calling his preflop 3-bet. There's no way in hell a free card play is going to work for us if we don't already have the best hand, and I severely doubt we do. Fold.

I know you're more than likely behind on the flop. You also have no hand to protect since it's more than likely SB has something like AA, QQ, AK (or KK/TT at worst) and your only way of winning will be to improve. But still... with the pot this large, don't you have the odds to continue with a 3-outter? That's what I'm not getting.

[Eeegah]

If we're behind (edit: AHEAD, if we're AHEAD God I can't think tonight), it could be to TT but it's most likely to AQ if he 3-bets AQo. You wanna try and hit a Jack?

Edit: yeah we're ahead if he has AQo right now, but we're kindof going on the assumption that we're likely behind.

I still don't understand why we give zero credit to the backdoor straight draw. I wouldn't call the flop bet with just a 2-outter draw here.

It's unlikely a straight-forward player would 3-bet AQ from the SB anyways.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
I still don't understand why we give zero credit to the backdoor straight draw. I wouldn't call the flop bet with just a 2-outter draw here.

It's unlikely a straight-forward player would 3-bet AQ from the SB anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to discount the BDSD even further because you're splitting if any of the three opponents in the hand has a jack--about a 1 in 4 chance if they're playing any two; that 1 out is more like .85 or so now. You're also not closing the action. You could raise to protect your hand if you make your BDSD, but now your loose flop "call" is costing you 2 bets--at least.

What's your plan for the turn if a blank hits? The pot's going to be plenty big by then, especially if you raise.

When a blank hits, it's an easy fold against a straight-forward player. You would need 22:1 odds and you are definitely not going to get that here unless there's a lot of action behind you on the flop.

Lets say you call and one of the limpers calls. There's now 7.5BBs in the pot. The turn is a 2 (or any other blank), SB bets, making it 8.5BBs and giving you 8.5:1 odds. Since you missed your backdoor straight potential, you now only have two outs, and you're not even getting CLOSE to the right odds. Easy fold.

Even if you raised, and SB re-raised, you wouldn't get even close to the odds you need on a turn blank.